Trumbo as the Starting RF

[DrungoHazewood]

Indicates becomes suggests becomes demonstrates becomes proves pretty quickly. Depends on who's citing metrics, to be honest.

I think its incumbent on the anti-metrics people to build a logical case for their point of view. I know that's harder when your starting assumption involves dismissing most existing objective analysis.

[Frobby]

My vague impression is that Trumbo is below average in the OF but not a complete butcher. I'd certainly prefer to have him at DH and have Fowler in RF.

[DrungoHazewood]

For me, defensive metrics are less reliable for corner outfielders (as well as 1B, C). UZR or defensive runs saved are useful, but there is a good deal of play in the numbers and sample sizes and (quite honestly) importance of corner outfield defense.

For example if UZR shows Trumbo to be terrible or incredible in RF or LF that tells me his defense is worth investigating deeper, it does not prove anything by itself. For the record his UZR/150 (-24, -12, -6.6) over the last 3 years in RF (only years he has significant playing time there, albeit still limited) indicates maybe he isn't so terrible. The -6.6 in 2015 is the best sample, 579 innings.

For comparison, Nick Markakis sports 1330 innings in 2015 with a -3.4 UZR/150. Interesting, 2014 Nick gave the Orioles 5.8. 2013 -5.8.

So one could argue Trumbo could be comparable to Markakis. One could also argue the variability in UZR makes it less then trustworthy

You can't forget the missing part: the assumption that if someone was capable of significant defensive contributions their playing record would reflect that. If Trumbo was a good defender in a corner you'd think someone might have played him there on a regular basis. But instead he's never played much over 100 games in the outfield in a MLB season, and even in the minors he was primarily a first baseman.

So you not only have metrics that indicate he's at best a below-average corner OFer, but also the implied judgment of all of his managers and coaches.

[jtschrei]

My impression is that Trumbo is a very good athlete. Better than Cruz even. If he was given RF from spring training and told he was going to play there exclusively, I think he would do fine.

I have the same opinion regarding Davis in RF actually. He'd be just fine if that was his everyday position. You see guys butcher fielding when they're not getting regular time at 1 position.

Being able to play multiple positions all the time like Flaherty ... not everyone can do that.

[El Gordo]

I don't think Trumbo has enough innings at any position save 1B, to draw any conclusions about his fielding. The metrics would seem to suggest that he is some what below average in the OF, but not horrendous. Why he hasn't played more G in the OF would depend on a lot of factors; he's a much better 1B, who else do you have for COF, is there a DH opportunity, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think Trumbo has enough innings at any position save 1B, to draw any conclusions about his fielding. The metrics would seem to suggest that he is some what below average in the OF, but not horrendous. Why he hasn't played more G in the OF would depend on a lot of factors; he's a much better 1B, who else do you have for COF, is there a DH opportunity, etc.

But the simplest answer, and I think the most likely, is that he hasn't ever been a regular OFer in a decade of pro ball because he's not a very good one.

[Redskins Rick]

But the simplest answer, and I think the most likely, is that he hasn't ever been a regular OFer in a decade of pro ball because he's not a very good one.

365 Games @ 1st.

265 Games @ OF

73 @ DH

9 @ 3B

From a high level view, he has 265 games at the OF and 100 more at 1st, thats not a huge difference.

[El Gordo]

But the simplest answer, and I think the most likely, is that he hasn't ever been a regular OFer in a decade of pro ball because he's not a very good one.

Simple maybe, simple minded perhaps. ARI had excellent defensive OF and yet Trumbo saw a lot of time there, because they had a GG/SS 1B, and no DH. I think you have to look at the scouting reports to really have an idea.

[DrungoHazewood]

365 Games @ 1st.

265 Games @ OF

73 @ DH

9 @ 3B

From a high level view, he has 265 games at the OF and 100 more at 1st, thats not a huge difference.

Just from that I'd say there's a high likelihood he's a mediocre defender in the OF.

[DrungoHazewood]

Simple maybe, simple minded perhaps. ARI had excellent defensive OF and yet Trumbo saw a lot of time there, because they had a GG/SS 1B, and no DH. I think you have to look at the scouting reports to really have an idea.

By the Fans Scouting Report Trumbo graded out as the worst RFer in baseball: http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=9

[Redskins Rick]

Just from that I'd say there's a high likelihood he's a mediocre defender in the OF.

Wont take too long to see how he actually does.

I suspect he will be better than Young and Cruz, and not as good as David Lough.

[OFFNY]

You don't need advanced metrics to know that when the ball hits the first baseman square in the glove and he drops it, there might be issues with his defense.

Man he was brutal in 2012 ... so much so that they moved him from first and put the Sheriff over there, who did surprisingly well.

I thought they moved the Sheriff because of how bad his 3rd base play was?

The previous season (2011), Reynolds had done a serviceable job at 1st base in 44 games there. Not a huge sample size, but not minuscule, either.

After the first 1/3 of the 2012 season, Showalter had nothing to lose and everything to gain by replacing Davis with Reynolds at 1st base. I believe that it was a calculated move with very little risk, because both corner infield positions had been awful up to that point, and the Orioles desperately needed to make some kind of move ...... Reynolds to first base was the obvious (and most sensible) choice at the time.

[MDtransplant757]

As long as whoever plays RF is good and productive on the plate and in the field, then I don't care. Trumbo wouldn't be my first choice, but if Reimold, Rickard or whoever else is on the RF carousel this year, I wouldn't mind Trumbo. But then who do we put in DH is the question.

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[Beef Supreme]

I think that the vast majority of those that follow advanced analytics view it as one tool among many.

I have never seen anyone suggest that defensive metrics are infallible. Have you?

And yet there are a large percentage of folks that don't like them that accuse folks of taking them as fact.

Yes, C_o_c, I have read claims that metrics of all sorts are indisputable too many times.

I don't side with either crowd. Call me non-partisan. I find metrics to be illuminating but, as Buck says, they usually just confirm what he sees on the field. Sometimes they encourage a coach to look more closely at particular aspect of a player's performance when the metrics don't match the eye-test. And sometimes, those metrics are misleading, for various reasons. I remember reading on the OH in 2014 a "pro-metrics" person arguing that part-time player Alberto Callaspo was more valuable than All-Star Jose Altuve...because WAR. It was, to me, a simplistic and flawed argument. Then came the predictable, unbridled arrogance that seems to have become the right of those who base their opinions solely on the vogue of statistical analysis. Pure ideologues, whether pro-metrics or anti-metrics, distort more than they illuminate. There is an abundance of spurious claims that are based on statistical analysis. And more than enough "making things up" to go around.

Regarding Trumbo, is it fair to say he is a "below-average" outfielder (without using the word "terrible," as so many sportswriters have described his defense in the OF)? And, if so, does that make him a liability as such. Personally, I can't foresee the Orioles playing him in the outfield more than a couple dozen innings, if at all. If they do play him frequently in the outfield, he could vie for their worst outfielder -- by metrics and by eye-test -- since Luke Scott, who was so much worse defensively than his metrics showed.

[weams]

shoes Beebmu99 • 9 hours ago

I'm here in Sarasota and I've seen the O's home games in which Trumbo has played right field. The diving catches made by him were indeed legitimately good OF

plays. The wind this year seems to be blowing constantly

in toward home plate so high fly balls are an adventure. Every Oriole OFer has been tentative on fly balls. The only ball (IMO) that he played badly was the first ball hit to him on opening day. Since then, he's looked OK to me.

BTW, yesterday he drove in two runs with runners at second and third, and advanced to second on the throw and then got a second hit later in the game. DD could have done a lot worse.

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