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Fangraphs: The Worst Transactions of the 2016 Offseason (O's #2)


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There is a solution.

He could spend well.

Well in all fairness they created a contract that defers so much money in a remarkably team-friendly way (zero interest, etc.) that they made it so that the Orioles could keep the guy they want AND still make additions.

Now we will see how this Gallardo/ Fowler stuff works out but the Orioles have certainly showed a willingness to spend right now.

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Is there such a thing anymore? If you're going to add (or keep) guys on the FA market, there's no "spending well." Contracts are at a crazy high right now, and showing no signs of slowing down.

There may still be such a thing as "spending well."

But as you point out, it does appear to be more and more difficult to achieve that particular goal.

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Some of us think it is too late.

I think 29 teams and a couple hundred talking heads don't think the O's spent well with Davis.

Good for them.

Those talking heads' opinions and $13 would get me a one-way ticket from Brewster to Grand Central Station.

They certainly didn't help the Nationals win the N.L. East going away last year.

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Well in all fairness they created a contract that defers so much money in a remarkably team-friendly way (zero interest, etc.) that they made it so that the Orioles could keep the guy they want AND still make additions.

Now we will see how this Gallardo/Fowler stuff works out but the Orioles have certainly showed a willingness to spend right now.

The Gallardo and Fowler situations are certainly looming large.

If we do sign both of them, then all we would have to do is win at least 88 or more games in the upcoming regular season to make it all look good ....... Oh, is that all ??? "Just win 88 or more games", huh ??? :002_ssuprised:

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No, the alternative is not to spend money on free agents like Davis.

Okay, so you disagree that they should do that, and I respect your right to that opinion. I know, its a chance.

Time to move and and enjoy the start of ST! :)

Sorry, just tired all of the off-season pondering and would of, should ofs, and over analyzing every move/non move.

Note, this is not targeted at you, but just my own ramblings.

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To be honest, I'm super concerned about the Davis contract as well. I feel it's almost a guarantee that he will be bordering on useless for the last year, possibly 2 years of the contract. His contact rate is already marginal, and a decline in contact rate would be catastrophic for him. We are banking on the fact that he has 1-2 more great years during which he basically earns his contract value, and makes the O's forget about the fact that he's useless during the tail end of his contract. I don't think that's a foregone conclusion, and when the upside of a contract is basically breaking even on contract value, there's a big problem.

We could have offered him about 20M less and still been the best deal on the table, and at least we'd have some upside to the contract. The only rationale for spending is that PGA wants a world series ring in the next 3 years because he wants to be alive and kicking to see it, and thus doesn't really care what happens after that. That's a valid rationale for PGA, but it hamstrings the team for all the fans that are going to be around after PGA passes on.

edit to say: Even if we could have spent ~145m on a player, there are other players I would have preferred at that dollar amount. Like Upton.

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-transactions-of-the-2016-offseason/

I wonder if they will need to revise the list once Gallardo signs.

I don't think so. Losing Chen but signing Gallardo doesn't make the pitching staff better. Besides, that means that about $90 million will be locked in to 2 starters that (Gallardo and Jimenez) that no other teams really wanted. That's not good.

As far as Chris Davis goes, the fangraphs synopsis was depressingly accurate....and they bid against themselves to make it happen.

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You purposely left out the various facts that didn't support your conclusion, like Davis' two MVP-caliber years in the last three and the fact that Howard was in decline when he signed his deal and was in a freefall by the time it kicked in. By the time Howard's extension kicked in his one 5-win season was six seasons in the past. Your post was a lie of omission.

Davis was a .235 hitter who got hit and hit 22 homeruns in meaningless August and September games. Davis performed at an MVP level for 2 months last year and the first half of 2013. That said, you are looking too far into webbrick's point b/c you are determined to prove him wrong.

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Davis was a .235 hitter who got hit and hit 22 homeruns in meaningless August and September games. Davis performed at an MVP level for 2 months last year and the first half of 2013. That said, you are looking too far into webbrick's point b/c you are determined to prove him wrong.

Herman,

Subtract 22, from 47, and that is 35 home runs.

What about his 53 HRs in 2013?

His OPS was .923 in 2015, and he batted better than .235, and you know it.

You also left out, his WAR of 5.2

The man is a beast and HR hitting machine, and they typically get paid more, than a punch and judy singles guy, that's just the way it is.

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Herman,

Subtract 22, from 47, and that is 35 home runs.

What about his 53 HRs in 2013?

His OPS was .923 in 2015, and he batted better than .235, and you know it.

You also left out, his WAR of 5.2

The man is a beast and HR hitting machine, and they typically get paid more, than a punch and judy singles guy, that's just the way it is.

Rick, I agree with the main points of your post, but 47-22=25. :)

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To be honest, I'm super concerned about the Davis contract as well. I feel it's almost a guarantee that he will be bordering on useless for the last year, possibly 2 years of the contract. His contact rate is already marginal, and a decline in contact rate would be catastrophic for him. We are banking on the fact that he has 1-2 more great years during which he basically earns his contract value, and makes the O's forget about the fact that he's useless during the tail end of his contract. I don't think that's a foregone conclusion, and when the upside of a contract is basically breaking even on contract value, there's a big problem.

We could have offered him about 20M less and still been the best deal on the table, and at least we'd have some upside to the contract. The only rationale for spending is that PGA wants a world series ring in the next 3 years because he wants to be alive and kicking to see it, and thus doesn't really care what happens after that. That's a valid rationale for PGA, but it hamstrings the team for all the fans that are going to be around after PGA passes on.

edit to say: Even if we could have spent ~145m on a player, there are other players I would have preferred at that dollar amount. Like Upton.

You might be right but Chris Davis is the one we signed to a big contract. I was against the signing but now I am just hopeful for Chris having a bunch of huge seasons.

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