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Fangraphs: The Worst Transactions of the 2016 Offseason (O's #2)


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As soon as I see Cameron's name, I pretty much know there is an agenda. I can't prove it, of course, but I really believe that if the Red Sox or Mariners had signed Davis to the exact same contract, Cameron would be singing their praises and it would be listed on the 10-best list, rather than the 10-worst. The guy just never shows objectivity, IMO.

Cameron is terribly hurt by what Andy MacPhail did to his beloved team. The team that never wins. He sleeps with an Adam Jones doll.

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Oh, I don't know. I've thought similar things, but he did say this last winter: "We’ll do a full write-up on Cruz to the Mariners in a bit, but this is an early contender for the worst signing of the off-season."

Fair enough. Maybe it is just when the Orioles are involved that he piles on.

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Oh, I don't know. I've thought similar things, but he did say this last winter: "We’ll do a full write-up on Cruz to the Mariners in a bit, but this is an early contender for the worst signing of the off-season."

Don't remember the circumstances, but one can only wonder if perhaps he didn't just write a scathing article blasting the Orioles for offering Cruz a 3-year deal the day before his beloved Mariners offered him four. :laughlol: Only half-joking. So, did he actually list it as one of the worst?

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Why do the Orioles have so many enemies?

That's not necessarily a bad thing.

I went to Fenway Park several times in 1993.

I went again in September of 2009.

In 1993, the "host fans" at Fenway Park were considerably surlier toward me than they were when I went in 2009.

In 1993, the Orioles were battling for the division title. In September of 2009, the Orioles were finishing up their 12th consecutive losing season. Hence, I suspect that there is a pretty good chance for the better treatment in September of 2009 was because I was looked upon as the proverbial lovable loser.

So ...... while nobody wants to be disliked, having enemies (in this particular context) isn't necessarily such a bad thing.

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The term "aging slugger" is dumb. Which human on this Earth isn't "aging." And I'll never understand the cult-like hate of Gallardo on here.

There is also some real love in OH by some posters who feel this is a really really great sign.

I think the actual results will be somewhere in the middle. :)

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It depends on how much money he signs for. Certain respected "expert posters" who shall remain nameless declared that "Gallardo isn't worth the money" even though we don't even know how much he'll sign for yet.

Top complaints against Gallardo:

"But but but Gallardo is superdy duper old because he's in his 30s" - Actually he's 29 and going to be 30 later this month. How is that suddenly "old"

"But but but Gallardo isn't worth his contract" - That's a pretty interesting concept considering he hasn't signed a contract yet

"But but but da draft pick be priceless yall. We could draft the second coming of Babe Ruth" - Right. And we could also draft the second coming of Matt Hobgood and scramble to trade our prospects for a junky rental pitcher at the trade deadline again like we do every year

Pretty sure the top complaint about Gallardo is: "He was a walk rate over 3 and a K rate under 6.", followed by "He doesn't go much more than five innings a start.".

For the record I don't know of anyone that considers themselves an "expert poster" whatever that means.

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Top complaints against Gallardo:

"But but but Gallardo is superdy duper old because he's in his 30s" - Actually he's 29 and going to be 30 later this month. How is that suddenly "old"

Age in a starter isn't as important as other indicators, like a consistent decline in strikeout rate from almost 10 per nine innings down to a full two K/9 below league average.

"But but but Gallardo isn't worth his contract" - That's a pretty interesting concept considering he hasn't signed a contract yet

I'm open to the idea of him signing a 4/25 kind of deal befitting his level of production. That would be acceptable.

"But but but da draft pick be priceless yall. We could draft the second coming of Babe Ruth" - Right. And we could also draft the second coming of Matt Hobgood and scramble to trade our prospects for a junky rental pitcher at the trade deadline again like we do every year

Or they could use a reasonable valuation of the pick they have to sacrifice and expect a fair risk/return on giving it up.

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WHIP is a more complete picture than just walk-rate. Gallardo's career WHIP is 1.31 which is pretty good. Even if his WHIP wasn't good, he's only had one season with an ERA over 4.00, so who cares? Gallardo's career K-rate is 8.2. Greg Maddux's career K-rate is 6.1. You're overvaluing K-rate. You're using only last season numbers because it's convenient for your argument. Gallardo career average is over 6 innings per start. Committing only 3-4 years to a guy will give you six innings per start of around 3.66 ERA ball at the bottom of your rotation? Sign me up.

I'm only using last year's numbers because they are a huge flashing red flag.

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Pretty sure the top complaint about Gallardo is: "He was a walk rate over 3 and a K rate under 6.", followed by "He doesn't go much more than five innings a start.".

For the record I don't know of anyone that considers themselves an "expert poster" whatever that means.

I think the "doesn't go much more than five innings per start" point is a bit overblown. Since being a full-time member of a rotation, Gallardo has averaged 6.19, 5.97, 6.27, 6.18, 5.83, 6.01 and 5.59 IP per start. The drop last year is a bit concerning, especially if it somehow relates to the drop in Gallardo's K rate and rise in his BB rate. But it could also be a one-off thing that just relates to Jeff Banister's choices.

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A huge flashing red flag. AKA The highest WAR (4.1) of his career so far which was also higher than any pitcher on the Orioles last season?

I would actually like to know a bit more about what caused the jump in his WAR. Just looking at the numbers compared to the previous year, it doesn't seem like the 1.5 win or so increase is warranted. Can anyone help on this? Did the park factor for Texas go nuts or something?

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I think the "doesn't go much more than five innings per start" point is a bit overblown. Since being a full-time member of a rotation, Gallardo has averaged 6.19, 5.97, 6.27, 6.18, 5.83, 6.01 and 5.59 IP per start. The drop last year is a bit concerning, especially if it somehow relates to the drop in Gallardo's K rate and rise in his BB rate. But it could also be a one-off thing that just relates to Jeff Banister's choices.

Seems to me that I read somewhere that Banister intentionally took Gallardo out early in the second half last year to keep his innings down.

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