Roch: Matusz Traded (along with draft pick)

[Just Regular]

Highest level, this feels like a win-now move for the 2016-2018 Machado Orioles.

Tendering Matusz was a close call, and we got another spring and quarter season to see whether he can be a playoff-caliber LOOGY.

The ~$3M savings will probably get re-purposed to the rentals for this year's push.

If Machado ever gets extended, the balance of strategy might shift to a longer game, but for now I expect most any move to work in the favor of now and the next two years.

[LC_O's_87]

Whichever, Lee is at 51 IP so we can put the cutoff at 50 to give you a fair comparison.

For what it is worth I think his career average of 6.5 is pretty limiting as well.

MLB players do too much damage with balls they put into play to allow guys with low K rates to thrive.

Let's be honest here. If he never improves his K rate he's not getting to the bigs. That's obvious.

If he's tops out at 6 K/9 at AA, then at best he's a reliever prospect.

I, like you, am making a projection. Mine is based on the reports that come from beat writers (perhaps slightly biased), and the demonstrable improvement in his velocity and control since being acquired 11 months ago. Yours is based on an assumption that his current trend-line is too poor to reasonably expect enough progression to become major league material.

Still, it was a good trade by Duquette.

[mcgraw238]

He's accomplished much more as a professional so far that. Draft pick #76 whose loss you are bemoaning.

Dismissing the acquisition of a minor league player who may help us in the future, while crying about the loss of a draft pick that could turn into a minor league player who may help us in the future, seems logically inconsistent to me.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

I doubt Corn is crying about the loss of a single pick as is the picture many here wish to paint. It's more the trend, as he noted, of selling a pick in consecutive seasons as well as giving up first round picks on questionable free agent signings. I'd prefer to go into the draft with more picks in the top 100, not less, to optimize my chances of selecting high end talent, especially when competing in a division with 2 big money franchises (3 if you include the Jays).

[Can_of_corn]

Let's be honest here. If he never improves his K rate he's not getting to the bigs. That's obvious.

If he's tops out at 6 K/9 at AA' date=' then at best he's a reliever prospect.

I, like you, am making a projection. Mine is based on the reports that come from beat writers (perhaps slightly biased), and the demonstrable improvement in his velocity and control since being acquired 11 months ago. Yours is based on an assumption that his current trend-line is too poor to reasonably expect enough progression to become major league material.

Still, it was a good trade by Duquette.[/quote']

Yea it was a fine trade since they were not going to use the slots.

As my father says mutton is better than nothing. (I on the other hand rather enjoy mutton)

[Aglets]

If you could draft two pitchers with the track record of the 2 that the Braves are sending us at 76, plus get $3M........would you?

I think I would.

I think it's easier to criticize giving up draft picks for 'win now' moves if they catastrophically fail (Ubaldo looks bad.....Gallardo is looking awful shaky).

But if you're giving up picks for money and prospects......that's not really hurting the future so much.

[LookitsPuck]

I'm not 100% happy with giving up the 76th overall pick to get rid of Matusz and his salary either. Getting two MiL arms back that have some upside makes this a balanced deal IMO. Let's not get too distraught over the 76th pick, it's not like it's anything other than a very long shot to begin with.

Zach Britton was drafted 85th. Mike Wright 94th. Just 2 quick examples.

[LC_O's_87]

If you could draft two pitchers with the track record of the 2 that the Braves are sending us at 76, plus get $3M........would you?

I think I would.

I think it's easier to criticize giving up draft picks for 'win now' moves if they catastrophically fail (Ubaldo looks bad.....Gallardo is looking awful shaky).

But if you're giving up picks for money and prospects......that's not really hurting the future so much.

Yea, if you look at it in terms of time horizons, they've basically back-filled the 2015 and 2014 drafts at the expense of the 2016 draft. Now, the argument becomes shaky when you take from 2016 draft and add to the MLB roster.

But if DD's new strategy is to continually supplement previous drafts by exchanging current draft picks/int'l funds, it seems as though it's a strategy that seemingly could continue working. Perhaps it's a workaround from the fact that the O's amateur scouting system is weak, underfunded and not market competitive but their pro scouting department is much more competitive.

[sportsfan8703]

I'm not 100% happy with giving up the 76th overall pick to get rid of Matusz and his salary either. Getting two MiL arms back that have some upside makes this a balanced deal IMO. Let's not get too distraught over the 76th pick, it's not like it's anything other than a very long shot to begin with.

Many fans, myself included, value the product of his actions. In his current role. Even if his system of valuation isn't always consistent with OH conventional wisdom.

I think you have to look at it as us gaining...

-Two Minor league arms(Barker and Belicek).

-Salary relief(to go towards an upcoming deal)

-Roster flexibility (maybe the biggest gain, we can get the AAA shuttle going).

We lost...

-Matusz

-76th pick

We also picked up another arm for our system yesterday in F.Romero. Picking up the three arms help to offset losing the draft pick. Not completely but some.

[mcgraw238]

If you could draft two pitchers with the track record of the 2 that the Braves are sending us at 76, plus get $3M........would you?

I think I would.

I think it's easier to criticize giving up draft picks for 'win now' moves if they catastrophically fail (Ubaldo looks bad.....Gallardo is looking awful shaky).

But if you're giving up picks for money and prospects......that's not really hurting the future so much.

Your overall point has merit, however, the prospects acquired in this deal are considered fringe prospects. Perhaps they are developed into MLB contributors but I learned a long time ago not to get too hung up on minor league stats as a barometer for MLB success.

[FlipTheBird]

Zach Britton was drafted 85th. Mike Wright 94th. Just 2 quick examples.

And for each Zach Britton (since I think it's still fair to grade Mike Wright as "Incomplete"), there are guys like this.

2008 (81st): LJ Hoes

2009 (85th): Tyler Townsend

2010 (85th): Dan Klein

2011 (64th): Jason Esposito

2012 (65th): Branden Kline

Point being, it is a crapshoot. If the O's honestly feel like they've acquired guys with potential Major League futures, I don't think it's an awful deal.

[24fps]

Zach Britton was drafted 85th. Mike Wright 94th. Just 2 quick examples.

Of the 51 players drafted in the 76th slot, only 19 of them ever played in the majors. That's slightly over one third (37%). To date, 135.7 cumulative WAR has been put up by all 19 players. Of that total, 118.6 has been put up by only three of them - Giancarlo Stanton, Marquis Grissom, Chase Utley.

I don't think that anyone if arguing that the 76th pick is valueless, only that getting a player with significant MLB value at that position is a long shot. The data bears that out.

[glenn__davis]

I'm sure this point has been made but I don't want to read through 23 pages

But the draft is as much about quantity as it is about quality. The fact that it very much is a crapshoot is all the more reason to try to acquire as many picks as you can.

The Orioles clearly have a different approach, but I just don't like the argument of saying "this pick usually doesn't amount to much." The more picks you have, the better chance of finding that guy that hits.

[Can_of_corn]

And for each Zach Britton (since I think it's still fair to grade Mike Wright as "Incomplete"), there are guys like this.

2008 (81st): LJ Hoes

2009 (85th): Tyler Townsend

2010 (85th): Dan Klein

2011 (64th): Jason Esposito

2012 (65th): Branden Kline

Point being, it is a crapshoot. If the O's honestly feel like they've acquired guys with potential Major League futures, I don't think it's an awful deal.

You know what I want in a crapshooot? More dice to throw.

The return on a hit is worth so much more than the cost of a half dozen misses.

[Can_of_corn]

Of the 51 players drafted in the 76th slot, only 19 of them ever played in the majors. That's slightly over one third (37%). To date, 135.7 cumulative WAR has been put up by all 19 players. Of that total, 118.6 has been put up by only three of them - Giancarlo Stanton, Marquis Grissom, Chase Utley.

I don't think that anyone if arguing that the 76th pick is valueless, only that getting a player with significant MLB value at that position is a long shot. The data bears that out.

I dislike when folks want to show the value of a particular pick by showing who was previously picked at that slot.

So if in a particular draft the 76th pick was a bust but the 77th pick puts up 20 career WAR than that year goes down as a bust as far as the comparison is concerned.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of the 51 players drafted in the 76th slot, only 19 of them ever played in the majors. That's slightly over one third (37%). To date, 135.7 cumulative WAR has been put up by all 19 players. Of that total, 118.6 has been put up by only three of them - Giancarlo Stanton, Marquis Grissom, Chase Utley.

I don't think that anyone if arguing that the 76th pick is valueless, only that getting a player with significant MLB value at that position is a long shot. The data bears that out.

Well, it's a crapshoot. But it just so happens that playing craps is one of only a very few ways the Baltimore Orioles choose to acquire young talent.