Roch: Matusz Traded (along with draft pick)

[sportsfan8703]

You know what I want in a crapshooot? More dice to throw.

The return on a hit is worth so much more than the cost of a half dozen misses.

This is a very good point. The Braves right now need a ton of dice to throw. We're not in that mode. But at least we minimized our risk a little by getting the two arms back.

[24fps]

I dislike when folks want to show the value of a particular pick by showing who was previously picked at that slot.

So if in a particular draft the 76th pick was a bust but the 77th pick puts up 20 career WAR than that year goes down as a bust as far as the comparison is concerned.

My post was predicated on the entire history of the draft at the position under discussion, not a single cherry-picked year or arbitrary comparison. If your yardstick is the 76th round pick, history says you have 3 chances in 51 of drafting an All Star player. A little under 6% which comfortably falls within the definition of long shot in my book. Now you bring up the 77th round pick. If that is more to your taste, then over the history of the June draft 3.6 MLB WAR has been put up by all 51 draftees combined.

If you dislike using history for perspective, what do you consider a better way to provide context?

[LookitsPuck]

And for each Zach Britton (since I think it's still fair to grade Mike Wright as "Incomplete"), there are guys like this.

2008 (81st): LJ Hoes

2009 (85th): Tyler Townsend

2010 (85th): Dan Klein

2011 (64th): Jason Esposito

2012 (65th): Branden Kline

Point being, it is a crapshoot. If the O's honestly feel like they've acquired guys with potential Major League futures, I don't think it's an awful deal.

It is, of course, a crapshoot. But Duquette is trading draft picks (or surrendering draft picks) at a rather unusual rate relative to the rest of the GMs.

Let's not pretend that the two 16th rounders (both 23 years old) are a better deal than a bottom 2nd rounder. Now is the difference that much? Probably not. But the main issue here is we gutted the farm system through trades, surrendering of 1st round draft picks for poor pitches in Ubaldo and Gallardo and trade comp picks like they're going out of style.

[LookitsPuck]

My post was predicated on the entire history of the draft at the position under discussion, not a single cherry-picked year or arbitrary comparison. If your yardstick is the 76th round pick, history says you have 3 chances in 51 of drafting an All Star player. A little under 6% which comfortably falls within the definition of long shot in my book. Now you bring up the 77th round pick. If that is more to your taste, then over the history of the June draft 3.6 MLB WAR has been put up by all 51 draftees combined.

If you dislike using history for perspective, what do you consider a better way to provide context?

Personally I think it's better to use tiers. What is the rate of, say, 70-80th rounders?

[24fps]

Personally I think it's better to use tiers. What is the rate of, say, 70-80th rounders?

I'm perfectly comfortable looking at the issue that way. Below is the link to a Hardball Times article from 2014 I referenced earlier in this thread and provides good perspective IMO.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

[LC_O's_87]

It is, of course, a crapshoot. But Duquette is trading draft picks (or surrendering draft picks) at a rather unusual rate relative to the rest of the GMs.

Let's not pretend that the two 16th rounders (both 23 years old) are a better deal than a bottom 2nd rounder. Now is the difference that much? Probably not. But the main issue here is we gutted the farm system through trades, surrendering of 1st round draft picks for poor pitches in Ubaldo and Gallardo and trade comp picks like they're going out of style.

Is gutted really the appropriate description? On net, I see alot of shuffling. There are certainly misses that in hindsight you question (Travis Snider), but then again he supplements that with a guy like Brach or MacFarland who could very well end up doing more than Brault or Tarpley ever do.

[Crazysilver03]

It is, of course, a crapshoot. But Duquette is trading draft picks (or surrendering draft picks) at a rather unusual rate relative to the rest of the GMs.

Let's not pretend that the two 16th rounders (both 23 years old) are a better deal than a bottom 2nd rounder. Now is the difference that much? Probably not. But the main issue here is we gutted the farm system through trades, surrendering of 1st round draft picks for poor pitches in Ubaldo and Gallardo and trade comp picks like they're going out of style.

Well, to be fair, only 12 teams have the ability of earning draft picks that they can trade so it does limit the scope from 30 to 12 GMs.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Just more of the same for DD. At some point he has to realize that the draft is kind of important to the long term stability of this organization.

[Moose Milligan]

Emphasis on the CRAP when it comes to crapshoots for the Orioles.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Is gutted really the appropriate description? On net' date=' I see alot of shuffling. There are certainly misses that in hindsight you question (Travis Snider), but then again he supplements that with a guy like Brach or MacFarland who could very well end up doing more than Brault or Tarpley ever do.[/quote']

If anything it might be being too kind to what he has done to the farm under his watch.

[Crazysilver03]

If anything it might be being too kind to what he has done to the farm under his watch.

Hah your funny. Got anymore jokes?

[Just Regular]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-sold-a-draft-pick-again/

Even Dave Cameron is....understanding.

[ArtVanDelay]

If anything it might be being too kind to what he has done to the farm under his watch.

We're going to be the Braves in 5 years. DD is going to leave he farm in shambles.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-sold-a-draft-pick-again/

Even Dave Cameron is....understanding.

The interesting part is how he feels the teams value the increase in pool money more than the actual pick.

This is something that I have been mentioning for years (the value of the pool money) and further reduces the relevance of "The 76th pick has done...".

[Reboulet'sStache]

And the funny thing is Matusz never should have been on the roster. Plenty of people have been saying that for a couple seasons now. And he didn't have to be on the roster. Dan added a player he never should have added, and then traded a draft pick to clear up that space. Two months into the season. What exactly did he think Matusz was going to do in the first two months that would have made him a "keeper"?