Accountability

[StottyByNature]

It is painful in the fact that so much was expected and yet it has not happened. Nobody wants to finish third, and in all reality we might consider ourselves actually lucky to do so. The "dark ages" never delivered the hope that this team did, simply based on the recent success of the past five years. When the stars are porperly aligned, this team can be a beautiful thing to see. Unfortunately after our early streaks we have not been able to maintain ANY momentum, and the reasons why have been duly noted. The problem is the fix. We cannot simply assume that we are going to deconstruct this team. It is suicide, but I do imagine this team looking much different next year, and into the future. Are we finished? No, but it will take a lot more than a few reclamation projects. I'd love to say it's been fun this year, but it really hasn't. It's been greatly frustrating, hugely irritating ,and yes, extremely disappointing. That said, I will always remain hopeful.

This is a predictable and disappointing thread. Surely, there will be time to evaluate the season, but I submit that that time is not while the season is going on. I understand the doom and gloom given the last three games, but we are still in playoff position. Baseball is about getting hot at the right time, and who knows, maybe we catch fire in the next week and it carries us through. But spare us the woe is me until the season has a definitive resolution.

[Frobby]

What's your guess on his new contract? I think someone gives him 4/65. My simple contract estimator has him worth 2/10. Trumbo might be even more of a litmus test for me than not signing Cruz. To me the Cruz contract was borderline unjustifiable by any reasonable assumptions. I can't see justifying what I assume Trumbo will get even with the most optimistic scenarios.

I think Trumbo gets less than 4/$65 mm. He's younger than Cruz was, but doesn't have as consistent a track record. He might equal Cruz's 4/$57 mm, though he shouldn't.

[Babypowder]

It doesn't matter if it is a skill. We are discussing how he has performed this year, not how he might perform in the future.

I understand that. I'm not going to give him credit for something I feel is out of his control, his overall numbers make him a league averageish player, maybe even slightly below, that's what I view him as.

[Frobby]

I understand that. I'm not going to give him credit for something I feel is out of his control, his overall numbers make him a league averageish player, maybe even slightly below, that's what I view him as.

Fair enough. I wasn't buying into the characterization of Trumbo as "amazing," just pointing out that he has done some positive things this year other than just hitting home runs.

[Babypowder]

What's your guess on his new contract? I think someone gives him 4/65. My simple contract estimator has him worth 2/10. Trumbo might be even more of a litmus test for me than not signing Cruz. To me the Cruz contract was borderline unjustifiable by any reasonable assumptions. I can't see justifying what I assume Trumbo will get even with the most optimistic scenarios.

I think that might be a little high. I have to think GMs are a little smarter than that. Cruz's contract was also crazy to me... but he was coming off a nearly 4 win year and a 137 wRC+. Trumbo is nowhere near that level.

I think he gets 3-4 years at something like 12-14 per, and I hope the O's don't even fake interest at that level. I'd value him at something like what you outlined. If they want that kind of pop on the team at DH next season, bring back Alvarez cheaply and find him a decent platoon partner, or just get Chris Carter on a cheap 1 year deal.

[DrungoHazewood]

It may not be a skill but it still happened.

It doesn't matter if it is a skill. We are discussing how he has performed this year, not how he might perform in the future.

But should we give credit for something that is out of the player's control? And if you do, how much does he get for a .791 OPS in high leverage situations compared to .828 overall?

[eddie83]

But should we give credit for something that is out of the player's control? And if you do, how much does he get for a .791 OPS in high leverage situations compared to .828 overall?

But it happened. If I get lucky at a casino it still happened. It helped the Orioles.

I don't think it makes Trumbo a better player going forward.

[Frobby]

But should we give credit for something that is out of the player's control? And if you do, how much does he get for a .791 OPS in high leverage situations compared to .828 overall?

When I am watching a game, and an Oriole player gets a hit with a runner on 2B and the runner scores, I don't think to myself, "oh well, the fact that there was a runner on base was out of the player's control." I think "hell, yeah!" And conversely, when a player gets a hit with nobody on base, it pleases me, but not as much as when that hit drives in a run. Forgive me, I'm human. It has been noticeable to me that Trumbo has come through in a lot of RBI situations, and that has increased my pleasure while watching the games.

Others have shown some stats showing that Trumbo hasn't been good in late & close situations, etc. Well, those are marks against him.

[DrungoHazewood]

But it happened. If I get lucky at a casino it still happened. It helped the Orioles.

I don't think it makes Trumbo a better player going forward.

What happened? He's hit .037 points worse in high-leverage situations than overall.

[OsEatAlEast]

I remember a study years ago(late 90's) about the "in the zone" factor. They took shooters of fairly equal level to a gun range. Put headsets to measure their brainwaves while they were shooting. They found that the people who hit their targets the most often had a higher amount of Beta waves(a calm yet alert state) in their readings. Sports science is just beginning to scratch the surface when it comes to this. If you can forgive the pun it's the next wave.

[DrungoHazewood]

When I am watching a game, and an Oriole player gets a hit with a runner on 2B and the runner scores, I don't think to myself, "oh well, the fact that there was a runner on base was out of the player's control." I think "hell, yeah!" And conversely, when a player gets a hit with nobody on base, it pleases me, but not as much as when that hit drives in a run. Forgive me, I'm human. It has been noticeable to me that Trumbo has come through in a lot of RBI situations, and that has increased my pleasure while watching the games.

Others have shown some stats showing that Trumbo hasn't been good in late & close situations, etc. Well, those are marks against him.

I'm just as happy. But ain't no way I'm giving him extra credit.

[Frobby]

I'm just as happy. But ain't no way I'm giving him extra credit.

Well, I do. It's not that I think he can repeat it in future seasons, I just give him credit for doing it this year.

As an aside, I was looking at Win Probability Added from our hitters:

Machado 2.54

Davis 2.22

Wieters 1.17

Trumbo 1.11

Alvarez 0.66

Schoop 0.64

Kim 0.60

Hardy 0.30

Rickard -0.72

Flaherty -0.74

Jones -0.75

Reimold -1.34

Joseph -1.40

It's interesting to see Davis that high and Jones so low.

[weams]

I think that might be a little high. I have to think GMs are a little smarter than that. Cruz's contract was also crazy to me... but he was coming off a nearly 4 win year and a 137 wRC+. Trumbo is nowhere near that level.

I think he gets 3-4 years at something like 12-14 per, and I hope the O's don't even fake interest at that level. I'd value him at something like what you outlined. If they want that kind of pop on the team at DH next season, bring back Alvarez cheaply and find him a decent platoon partner, or just get Chris Carter on a cheap 1 year deal.

Jack Zduriencik was the only GM that wanted Cruz for four years. He wasn't overly analytical.

[eddie83]

What happened? He's hit .037 points worse in high-leverage situations than overall.

I honestly have no idea how Trumbo has been. I'm talking in generalities.

[Aristotelian]

I think that might be a little high. I have to think GMs are a little smarter than that. Cruz's contract was also crazy to me... but he was coming off a nearly 4 win year and a 137 wRC+. Trumbo is nowhere near that level.

I think he gets 3-4 years at something like 12-14 per, and I hope the O's don't even fake interest at that level. I'd value him at something like what you outlined. If they want that kind of pop on the team at DH next season, bring back Alvarez cheaply and find him a decent platoon partner, or just get Chris Carter on a cheap 1 year deal.

Yes. Alvarez and Pearce could be the next Roenicke and Lowenstein. They are perfectly suited to complement one another. Get somebody who can play defense in RF to take Reimold's spot. Platoon Kim and Rickard in LF.