Our record is better, but are we actually a better team than in 2015?

[Frobby]

In 2015, we outscored opponents by 20 runs for the year. This year, with four games to go, we have outscored opponents by 19 runs.

The league as a whole is scoring about .15 runs/game more than last year, and allowing about .20 runs/game more than last year (the discrepancy is due to interleague play). Here's how the Orioles compared to the league in 2015 and 2016:

R/G: 4.40 vs. 4.39 in 2015 (+.01); 4.58 vs. 4.54 in 2016 (+.04)

RA/G: 4.28 vs. 4.29 in 2015 (+.01); 4.46 vs. 4.49 in 2016 (+.03)

ERA: 4.05 vs. 4.01 in 2015 (-.04); 4.26 vs. 4.22 in 2016 (-.04)

As you can see, the differences relative to the league are minimal. Yet, the team has five more wins, with four games left to play.

I think this is probably a classic example of how W-L records can vary quite a bit with very little change in the level of talent. Last year, things didn't go our way, and this year, they have. We were probably a little better than our record in 2015, and we are a little worse than our record in 2016. We have a better record in one-run games (25-26 last year, 21-16 this year), and Britton has been infallible this year whereas last year he was merely great (90% save rate last year vs. 100% this year). That's basically the difference between the two seasons.

[MDtransplant757]

Yes. We have an OBP guy in Kim, where last year we didn't and our pitching is better. JJ has returned to form and we don't have a carousel in LF and RF.

[Redskins Rick]

Yes. We have an OBP guy in Kim, where last year we didn't and our pitching is better. JJ has returned to form and we don't have a carousel in LF and RF.

And we have a healthy MW behind the plate all season.

[MDtransplant757]

And we have a healthy MW behind the plate all season.

True. That and we've seen the emergence of Brad Brach.

[Redskins Rick]

True. That and we've seen the emergence of Brad Brach.

Brach goes under the category of improved pitching. Tilly is back to form, Bundy and Gausman makes this a pretty good trio.

[MDtransplant757]

Brach goes under the category of improved pitching. Tilly is back to form, Bundy and Gausman makes this a pretty good trio.

That and we don't have a bad Gonzo and a bad Norris, just an iffy Ubaldo, Gallardo and Miley

[Machado13]

Yea better. There was too much AAAA on last year's team

[Frobby]

For every positive you guys are pointing out, I can point to a negative that balances it out. That's the reason why the overall numbers have barely budged.

Take starting pitching. Last year our starters had a 4.53 ERA, this year it is 4.80. The league as a whole is up .30, so in essence, we are in the exact same spot as last year. Tillman has been much better, but the loss of Chen really hurt and Ubaldo/Gallardo/Miley have been pretty bad (granted, Ubaldo has been doing well recently). Relative to the league, we are in basically the same spot.

Our bullpen also has a higher ERA than last year, 3.21 in 2015, 3.39 in 2016. The league bullpen ERA is up .10, so we've done slightly worse relative to the league. But we've done well in high-leverage situations. Britton and Brach have been better this year, but O'Day hasn't been as good and missed about half the season.

As to the hitters, it is basically a wash. Yeah, Wieters has been healthy all year, but he hit better in 2015 and Caleb Joseph was miles better in 2015 than he has been this year. Trumbo, Kim and Alvarez have all done a decent job offensively, but Davis is way down from last year. Again, the bottom line is that we're on pace to score about 6 runs more than the average team, whereas last year we scored 2 more runs than the average team.

I'm glad that we are competing for a playoff spot, but I don't see a big difference between the talent of the two teams.

[weams]

Yea better. There was too much AAAA on last year's team

Trumbo, Alvarez, Wieters, JJ, Kim. All a boost. Chen was good, horrible this year. Gausman and Bundy more than made up. Losing Matusz was an improvement.

[Ripken]

The eyes say we're about the same; some places better, some not. The few extra wins may be solely on Britton being ridiculous.

[Ohfan67]

I think overall defense is worse, mainly due to outfield.

[atomic]

Last year we scored 20 more runs than the opponent this year 19 runs more. I would say we are about the same team as last year.

[Redskins Rick]

Last year we scored 20 more runs than the opponent this year 19 runs more. I would say we are about the same team as last year.

While the metrics are similar, I found it how to not see how much better this team is, than last years.

Considering last season, we had no DH and makeshift COF.

[weams]

I think overall defense is worse, mainly due to outfield.

Areas that are worse are Ubaldo's first half, Davis regression, Miley instead of last year's Chen.

[blid]

That and we don't have a bad Gonzo and a bad Norris, just an iffy Ubaldo, Gallardo and Miley

Gonzo pitched into the 9th last night. Argh!!