Our record is better, but are we actually a better team than in 2015?

[auzzy98]

I'm having a hard time remembering how our approach at the plate last year differed from this year. I feel like I have never felt like we were so out of games because of our approach at the plate more than this year, and more so since the all-star break. I know we've struggled for a few years with KO's and poor OBP. But were we this anxious and strikeout happy last year?

[bobmc]

Good thread. We spent 30-40M more to have a similarly average to slightly above average team that no one thinks has a realistic chance of advancing in the playoffs. With very little young cheap talent coming in, it costs more to maintain the status quo. It's an expensive house of cards. With that being said, I had us pegged for 75-77 wins this year, so the team has exceeded my expectations once again.

Hear hear (here here)! :clap3: Same here and I had written them off two nights ago but still watched to the bitter end for some reason last night. It was (Oriole) magic, I tell ya! Black and Orange! :mwahaha:

[bpilktree]

This team is better overall offensively but they have been much worse in key situations with runners in scoring position. That is the big difference I see last year we hit .276 with runners in scoring position and opsed .796. This year we are .260 and .755 and that number has been a steady decline since June. As a whole it evens out but this year we started rather strong through June then fell off the cliff which is why we are under .500 since July 1st.

[bpilktree]

You can never tell with stats look at the Rangers they have best record in AL and have a run differential of +11, compared to the Red Sox one game behind them with +188.

[weams]

I had us pegged for 75-77 wins this year, so the team has exceeded my expectations once again.

Don't flog yourself. So did many folks who actually get paid for their predictions.

[weams]

I'm having a hard time remembering how our approach at the plate last year differed from this year. I feel like I have never felt like we were so out of games because of our approach at the plate more than this year, and more so since the all-star break. I know we've struggled for a few years with KO's and poor OBP. But were we this anxious and strikeout happy last year?

Yes. And they hit fewer homers as well.

[srock]

Seems like a good use case for Pythagorean Win Loss

bbref

2016: Actual 86-77 pythWL at 81-77 Luck: 5

2015: Actual 81-81 pythWL at 83-79 Luck: -2

So one could argue luck could be the deciding factor here.

I would argue Brach/Britton make their own luck!

[Frobby]

Seems like a good use case for Pythagorean Win Loss

bbref

2016: Actual 86-77 pythWL at 81-77 Luck: 5

2015: Actual 81-81 pythWL at 83-79 Luck: -2

So one could argue luck could be the deciding factor here.

I would argue Brach/Britton make their own luck!

I don't like the term "luck." Maybe "sequencing" is a better word. They have performed well at the right times. I feel like that is particularly true of the bullpen. Their ERA is a bit higher than last year, but that is mostly due to giving up runs in games we already were losing by a substantial margin. When it has mattered most, they've been stellar. Win Probability Added of 9.38, tops in the majors by more than 3 wins. Last year their WPA was "only" 5.70, 5th in the majors.

[blid]

Good thread. We spent 30-40M more to have a similarly average to slightly above average team that no one thinks has a realistic chance of advancing in the playoffs. With very little young cheap talent coming in, it costs more to maintain the status quo. It's an expensive house of cards. With that being said, I had us pegged for 75-77 wins this year, so the team has exceeded my expectations once again.

I don't think we're anywhere near the top teams in baseball but you never know what team can make a run in the playoffs. Sometimes you can get hot at the right time. Just a couple years ago the Giants were an 88-win wild card team. Their pythag was only 87 wins too.

[Frobby]

I don't think we're anywhere near the top teams in baseball but you never know what team can make a run in the playoffs. Sometimes you can get hot at the right time. Just a couple years ago the Giants were an 88-win wild card team. Their pythag was only 87 wins too.

I'm with you on this. Get us into the tournament and anything can happen, even if we are not the best team in there.

[Aristotelian]

My eye test says we are a better team. One big difference from last year is the whole AL East has gotten better, so to hold our own statistically as well as in W/L reflects improvement, not just treading water.

[Redskins Rick]

I guess so but I don't see this team as having any chance at all of getting to a WS. Those SF teams had Bumgarner and an offense that didn't have all or nothing hitters. The KC team has the awesome bullpen and again, an offense that could scratch runs together against tough pitching.

We will be underdogs against Toronto, home or away, if we make it in.

in 1983, they were not the best team in baseball, yet, good at the right time, to win the WS.

[weams]

We miss Chen. Gausman improved but is still inconsistent. Bundy big plus as was JJ and Trumbo. Matt steady. Kim and Pedro I'm lukewarm about. Davis has been a disaster and probably cost us first place. I haven't figured out a description for Mylie and

Gallardo yet but it's not good.

We did not miss Chen's horrible, injury filled 5.02 ERA National League pitching to pitchers season. No.

[Redskins Rick]

We miss Chen. Gausman improved but is still inconsistent. Bundy big plus as was JJ and Trumbo. Matt steady. Kim and Pedro I'm lukewarm about. Davis has been a disaster and probably cost us first place. I haven't figured out a description for Mylie and

Gallardo yet but it's not good.

El Toro provided more punch than last year's DH spot.

I find it hard to call a 3.1 WAR person a disaster, granted, its not the 5.1 he posted last year, but far from a disaster. IMO

[Frobby]

I guess so but I don't see this team as having any chance at all of getting to a WS. Those SF teams had Bumgarner and an offense that didn't have all or nothing hitters. The KC team has the awesome bullpen and again, an offense that could scratch runs together against tough pitching.

We will be underdogs against Toronto, home or away, if we make it in.

I don't think are chances are that good, mainly because we haven't played well in the second half of the season. But I'd never say we didn't have any chance at all. Baseball is such a weird game. Sometimes a couple of players get hot at the right time and everything looks different.

I'd sure like the opportunity to find out.