The Bar Has Been Raised

[Orange]

We're a winning team now. We're not the same team we were in 2012... the culture, the mentality, the attitude... it's all different now.

As fans we're upset today because we believed we would win in Toronto and could take out the #1 seed Rangers in a series... heck, maybe win it all. The bar has been raised. For that I thank Buck and Adam most of all. I've loved to see the culture affect the young guys... Manny has turned into the man, not the bratty bat-throwing jerk that he could've been. I appreciate that and a million other things. Culture is really hard to change and we've done it.

We still don't get the credit we're due, but remember when we were laughingstocks? It wasn't that long ago... The bar has been raised and as a fan I'm grateful.

[Can_of_corn]

As a fan I'm irked that Buck grossly misplayed his hand last night.

I am still far from convinced that the team is in a good position going forward.

[Ruzious]

Thing is - because the bar has been raised and expectations are higher, we almost have to make moves for next season that may hurt more in the long run.

[Orange]

As a fan I'm irked that Buck grossly misplayed his hand last night.

I am still far from convinced that the team is in a good position going forward.

Well, yeah... You don't pitch to E5 with one out and first base open and the world's best sinkerballer in the bullpen... agreed.

I just wanted to express my gratitude for the seachange we've witnessed these past five seasons. It was painful to lose in Toronto, but I've had a lot of fun as a fan. I'm grateful that we're a competitive team. Obviously I'm not satisfied without a World Series, but that's sort of the whole point. We've gone from laughinstocks to not being satisfied without a World Series. So I'm grateful.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, yeah... You don't pitch to E5 with one out and first base open and the world's best sinkerballer in the bullpen... agreed.

I just wanted to express my gratitude for the seachange we've witnessed these past five seasons. It was painful to lose in Toronto, but I've had a lot of fun as a fan. I'm grateful that we're a competitive team. Obviously I'm not satisfied without a World Series, but that's sort of the whole point. We've gone from laughinstocks to not being satisfied without a World Series. So I'm grateful.

Yes the last five seasons have been a very good run.

Better than I have expected.

I hope it continues.

[Orange]

Thing is - because the bar has been raised and expectations are higher, we almost have to make moves for next season that may hurt more in the long run.

Well, good. I think the whole "being hurt in the long run" is overblown. You need a core of 10-12 difference makers and another 25-30 guys that average about 1 WAR apiece. I think DD is generally pretty good at getting waves of options to fill that latter group. For the difference maker group I'd say we've got 8-10 guys who can be difference makers... maybe we graduate a Bundy or catch lightning in a bottle with Mancini... but you don't have to add too many guys to that group each year, maybe one or two. This year we hit on Trumbo and we barely made the playoffs. We'll need to do it again, but that's the job in front of us. We're starting from a better place than most believe.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, good. I think the whole "being hurt in the long run" is overblown. You need a core of 10-12 difference makers and another 25-30 guys that average about 1 WAR apiece. I think DD is generally pretty good at getting waves of options to fill that latter group. For the difference maker group I'd say we've got 8-10 guys who can be difference makers... maybe we graduate a Bundy or catch lightning in a bottle with Mancini... but you don't have to add too many guys to that group each year, maybe one or two. This year we hit on Trumbo and we barely made the playoffs. We'll need to do it again, but that's the job in front of us. We're starting from a better place than most believe.

You math is off.

The baseline win total for a hypothetical 0 WAR team is 48. You add 25 one win players and you are at 73. At in 10 "difference makers" (I'm guessing averaging 3 WAR?) and you have a 103 win team.

I think the core is quickly aging and not much is in the pipeline to replace them.

[Aristotelian]

I don't know. We had a great first half, but post All Star break we were 2nd to last in MLB in OBP. Only San Diego was worse. 88 wins and WC is a bit of a disappointment for a team that was 18 games over .500 at one point. To fail to build on that and end up only 14 games over .500 was a disappointment. While we came back from the abyss with some good wins in September, overall I would not say we are headed in a 100% positive direction.

Our pitching could be pretty good with a full year of Bundy and potentially one of Gallardo, Miley, and Ubaldo pitching like they did down the stretch, But we will likely be down Trumbo and Wieters, without many alternatives in house or in free agency to replace them.

[Can_of_corn]

Despite a career year, Baseball Reference has Trumbo at a 1.6 WAR for the year. If you buy into that, he's replaceable. Wieters was a 1.7 WAR. I don't say it will be easy to replace them but maybe losing them is not quite a catastrophe. A better defender in RF with less power could replace Trumbo. Caleb Jospeh was a 2 WAR play in 2015. He can't be this bad again.

He can't be this bad again but I bet he doesn't get close to 2 WAR again either.

[OFFNY]

o

Late in the Orioles' 14 consecutive losing season streak (September of 2008), I predicted that the Orioles would have one more losing season (2009), have a respectable winning season in 2010 (about 86-76), and contend for a Pennant in 2011.

I was off by one year on contending for a Pennant, and off by 2 years on the winning season.

I also stated (back in 2008) that the Orioles needed 3 consecutive winning seasons (playoffs or no playoffs, 3 consecutive winning seasons) to shed their image as losers, and for them to be viewed by both MLB players , MLB fans, and MLB sportswriters as a perennial contender.

So in my rat's ass of an opinion, the Orioles accomplished that after the 2014 seasons ........ which was their 3rd consecutive winning season.

I like this thread, though. I agree with it in spirit, if not necessarily the timing that the bar for the Baltimore Orioles franchise was officially raised.

[backwardsk]

Despite a career year, Baseball Reference has Trumbo at a 1.6 WAR for the year. If you buy into that, he's replaceable. Wieters was a 1.7 WAR. I don't say it will be easy to replace them but maybe losing them is not quite a catastrophe. A better defender in RF with less power could replace Trumbo. Caleb Jospeh was a 2 WAR play in 2015. He can't be this bad again.

According to rWAR, Davis was twice as valuable as Trumbo.

[Mondo Trasho]

I know logically that my teams won't win championships every season. That's just how sports go. But, what I want out of my teams is that the people running the personnel are doing everything they can to win a championship. If all we do is lose the first playoff game/series we play, I'm ok with it as long as the organization gave it their best shot. Not ok if they're content with it.

[maybenxtyr]

According to rWAR, Davis was twice as valuable as Trumbo.

I wonder what Trumbo would have put up at 1B a 150ish games? It doesn't change anything because Davis is here and not going anywhere, but would Trumbo have equaled or been better than Davis?

[Mondo Trasho]

You math is off.

The baseline win total for a hypothetical 0 WAR team is 48. You add 25 one win players and you are at 73. At in 10 "difference makers" (I'm guessing averaging 3 WAR?) and you have a 103 win team.

I think the core is quickly aging and not much is in the pipeline to replace them.

I guess it depends on who the "core" is. Bundy is 23, Gausman 25, Tillman 28. Schoop and Machado are still young, I think Britton is under 30 as well. The others though, yeah they're on the wrong side of 30.