Dylan Bundy's future

[Redskins Rick]

My point is that expecting them to repeat 2015 is almost the best case scenario. We can dream they both take a step forward and stay healthy all year, but that pretty unrealistic imo. Dream was probably the wrong word, tbf.

Gausman took a big step up with his game in 2016 and its not unrealistic to continue to see growth and improvement and of course to stay healthy.

It was good to see Bundy healthy and contributing and its not unrealistic to expect to see growth and improvement and stay healthy.

[Phantom]

Gausman took a big step up with his game in 2016 and its not unrealistic to continue to see growth and improvement and of course to stay healthy.

Did he though? Unless you were talking about his IP, which certainly was a big improvement.

[SurhoffRules]

Did he though? Unless you were talking about his IP, which certainly was a big improvement.

I think so.

YEAR	IP	ERA+	H9	BB9	SO92014	113.1	110	8.8	3.0	7.02015	112.1	97	8.7	1.4	8.32016	179.2	123	9.2	1.4	8.7

He threw almost 70 more innings, posted his highest ERA plus, and ticked up a notch in his K/9. I'm very pleased with Gausman's progress this season. He's turning 26 next year and it's completely reasonable to think this isn't his ceiling.

When all was said and done this season, he led the staff in ERA plus, Innings Pitched, and Ks. He also had the second lowest BB/9 rate of the bunch (worth noting the leader here was Tyler Wilson so take that for what its worth).

He might not have posted Tillman's wins, but he took a big step forward this season and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do next year.

[Phantom]

ERA+ does show a jump, but FiP and xFiP are usually better predictors.

2015:

FiP - 4.10 xFip: 3.80

2016:

FiP - 4.10 xFip: 3.77

The innings pitched jump is really the big improvement.

[Ruzious]

I think it's time to stop lumping Gausman and Bundy together. Gausman's one of the better young pitchers in the game, and Bundy's a questionmark who we hope will develop into a pitcher like Gausman.

[Redskins Rick]

I think it's time to stop lumping Gausman and Bundy together. Gausman's one of the better young pitchers in the game, and Bundy's a questionmark who we hope will develop into a pitcher like Gausman.

IMO, Bundy has better stuff than Gausman and ends up being a true Ace and #1.

Personally, I think Gausman ends a bit short and a very good #2 starter, basically, how Tilly has been mostly.

[Redskins Rick]

Did he though? Unless you were talking about his IP, which certainly was a big improvement.

How about his lower ERA?

Did you seriously not see an improvement from his 2015 season?

I thought his composure and mound pressure was vastly improved. IMO

[SurhoffRules]

ERA+ does show a jump, but FiP and xFiP are usually better predictors.

2015:

FiP - 4.10 xFip: 3.80

2016:

FiP - 4.10 xFip: 3.77

The innings pitched jump is really the big improvement.

Agreed they are better predictors but the results were there.

As an aside, are FIP and xFIP normalized between seasons? I know the run context was a bit higher this year.

[Phantom]

How about his lower ERA?

Did you seriously not see an improvement from his 2015 season?

I thought his composure and mound pressure was vastly improved. IMO

ERA is a terrible stat but even if you think it's a good one, it's almost a team stat. Gausman can't play defense or pitch relief for himself. FiP and xFiP were specifically created because ERA is so muddled with factors pitchers have no control over.

Agreed they are better predictors but the results were there.

As an aside, are FIP and xFIP normalized between seasons? I know the run context was a bit higher this year.

Good point. I think runs ticked up a bit (despite the 2015 Jays outscoring any 2016 team). i wonder what the run environment looks like next year.

[SurhoffRules]

Good point. I think runs ticked up a bit (despite the 2015 Jays outscoring any 2016 team). i wonder what the run environment looks like next year.

For context the AL the league average Runs Allowed Per Game jumped from 4.18, to 4.29, to 4.47 from 2014 to 2016.

[crawjo]

With his peripherals this year, especially in the second half, as well as his stuff, I'd say Gausman is now our best starting pitcher.

[esmd]

With his peripherals this year, especially in the second half, as well as his stuff, I'd say Gausman is now our best starting pitcher.

I'd disagree with that. IMO Tillman, when healthy, is our best. That said, it's not a bad thing that people are debating that. ;-)

[sportsfan8703]

For context the AL the league average Runs Allowed Per Game jumped from 4.18, to 4.29, to 4.47 from 2014 to 2016.

Very good post. So Gausman staying the maintaining the same stats and throwing 70 more innings is a big jump. A 70 inning jump. He also had the shoulder thing coming out of ST and this was his first full year in the rotation.

The 1-0 win @ BOS and the 2-1 game he pitched vs NYY and Tanaka in OPACY were Ace like.

He needs to cut down on the dingers. Cut down on giving up hits when he's ahead in the count. That should lower his HR/9 and WHIP.

[Can_of_corn]

Very good post. So Gausman staying the maintaining the same stats and throwing 70 more innings is a big jump. A 70 inning jump. He also had the shoulder thing coming out of ST and this was his first full year in the rotation.

The 1-0 win @ BOS and the 2-1 game he pitched vs NYY and Tanaka in OPACY were Ace like.

He needs to cut down on the dingers. Cut down on giving up hits when he's ahead in the count. That should lower his HR/9 and WHIP.

He had the same issue in 2015.

[SurhoffRules]

He needs to cut down on the dingers. Cut down on giving up hits when he's ahead in the count. That should lower his HR/9 and WHIP.

Honestly, if Guasman can toss about 20 to 30 more innings and do exactly what he did this year, I'd be very happy. If he can do any better, I'd be thrilled. He was a 4 win pitcher in 30 starts this year.

Cutting down on his HR/9 and WHIP is nice on paper, but I've no idea how he'd actually go about implementing those improvements.

Honestly, my "eye test" is that Guasman is a good pitcher as he sits.

If he wants to take another step forward he'll need to either improve his command throughout the course of the game (which I think is doable for pitcher entering the back half of his twenties who's never really struggled with free passes), find some extra bite on his breaking pitch (which I'm not as sure is all that common), or some combination of the two. I'm plenty happy he's on the team.

Pivoting back to Bundy, I think he just needs to stay health next year. Soundbites not withstanding he seemed to be fatigued as the season wore on and his command really went by the wayside. I'm hoping for 130-150 innings of about the same performance or slightly better.