More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

[Frobby]

PECOTA has the Orioles scoring 712 runs (down 32 from last year) and allowing 818 (up 103), leading to a 71-91 record and a last place finish.   At least they're consistent!  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

OPS Projections:

Davis .834

Schoop .727

Machado .813

Hardy .664

Kim .773

Jones .777

Smith .759

Trumbo .779

Castillo .724

Joseph .641

Flaherty .666

Rickard .712

Mancini .760

ERA Projections:

Tillman 5.06

Gausman 4.34

Bundy 4.66

Miley 4;56

Jimenez 4.99

Britton 2.94

O'Day 3.97

Brach 3.96

Givens 4.13

The offensive projections seem credible, though a bit pessimistic.    The pitching projections just seem outrageous.

 

[Can_of_corn]

They have the O's at -23.3 FRAA (fourth worse).  That partially explains the pitching projection.

[Dark Helmet]

So Tillman is projected to be the worst SP in the rotation? 

[Aristotelian]

I don't see anything hilarious about that. The margin between a 70 win team and a 90 win team is pretty small. The Orioles have lately overperformed. It is possible that given enough chances their model will eventually predict us correctly. I had us as a 70 win team last year and was pleasantly surprised, and we have pretty much tread water this year. I would probably be more surprised by 90 wins than I would 70 wins this year. That said, they must really hate our SPs. They are basically predicting Tillman and Gausman to both have career-worst seasons, with Bundy pitching like a #5 and both Ubaldo and Miley below their norms. At least one of those guys has to step up, right?

[Dark Helmet]

And I'd be pretty happy if Jimenez put up an ERA in the 4's.

[weams]

 

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, weams said:

 

So...your saying 81 wins?

[weams]

Just now, foxfield said:

So...your saying 81 wins?

I have them winning 88 myself. Bet I'm closer. 

[esmd]

Lol...ok. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

We will NEVER be a 70 win team with Buck here.  Pecota is more than a joke. It's total garbage run by a group of geeks who don't know their ass from their elbow. I don't know why OH bothers to post this BS every year.

Never?

[foxfield]

Just now, weams said:

I have them winning 88 myself. Bet I'm closer. 

Oh I agree...It's pretty clear that what the O's do does not score will in the Pecota charts.  So. I think this is good news.  The one year after the AL EAST TITLE, I think folks picked us higher and it was our worst year under Buck.

 

Go Os!  

[MDtransplant757]

 

[Can_of_corn]

Some folks got real short memories around here.

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, foxfield said:

Oh I agree...It's pretty clear that what the O's do does not score will in the Pecota charts.  So. I think this is good news.  The one year after the AL EAST TITLE, I think folks picked us higher and it was our worst year under Buck.

 

Go Os!  

2011 was our worst year under Buck, because our SP was awful and our BP was ok

[weams]

Just now, foxfield said:

Oh I agree...It's pretty clear that what the O's do does not score will in the Pecota charts.  So. I think this is good news.  The one year after the AL EAST TITLE, I think folks picked us higher and it was our worst year under Buck.

 

Go Os!  

It's pretty sure that PECOTA is missing a large element of the Orioles success. And has been high on something the Rays used to do...