Some observations from BP Annual

[Just Regular]

Hardy had 3rd lowest swing percentage (36.3) among guys seeing 1000 pitches, but saw way more strikes than the others in that cohort.  Only Logan Forsythe swung <40% and saw >50% strikes, and Hardy's 36.3/53.3 combo has another few points beyond those filters.  The game seems clear - pitchers aren't afraid at all, and Hardy's swing patterns were giving them more reason not to be afraid.  I think a key April indicator for how the year will go is going to be if Hardy can knock a few extra base hits.  If he's still passive and punchless early, this snowball could run downhill.

Since they are both shaky for their current positions, Mountcastle and Sisco's destinations were considered, and both were credited with enough bat/athleticism for outfield.  Could those be the young legs around AJ in a few years?

Schoop's <.300 obp and >60 XBH was only the 21st player season like that in history.  I like to think of him as a ball crusher, but his exit velocity was 171st of 213 qualifiers.  He gets his crushes for sure, but it seems to be more than offset but too much bad contact.  Standard Orioles damage to contact ratio, I guess  We worry about any change to the low strike zone hurting Britton, but it might really help all our sluggers more than it hurts our pitchers.

Sedlock and some other 1st round picks were college relievers, and it was new to me the perspective that NCAA coaches have been using their best guys as Andrew Millers for some time now.  If we are truly all-in on the end of the Machado/Britton era, could he be Chris Ray'd into the pen by this September and for 2018?

Apparently Mariners fans nicknamed Seth Smith (#50 overall, 2004 draft) "Dad" - that is a nice style match for the kind of player he is.  I suppose Hardy (#56 overall, 2001 draft), who is just 1 month older, gives him some good competition here, but Smith's college time might be the "Dad" edge.  Ping pong is very strong, though.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Hardy had 3rd lowest swing percentage (36.3) among guys seeing 1000 pitches, but saw way more strikes than the others in that cohort.  Only Logan Forsythe swung <40% and saw >50% strikes, and Hardy's 36.3/53.3 combo has another few points beyond those filters.  The game seems clear - pitchers aren't afraid at all, and Hardy's swing patterns were giving them more reason not to be afraid.  I think a key April indicator for how the year will go is going to be if Hardy can knock a few extra base hits.  If he's still passive and punchless early, this snowball could run downhill.

Since they are both shaky for their current positions, Mountcastle and Sisco's destinations were considered, and both were credited with enough bat/athleticism for outfield.  Could those be the young legs around AJ in a few years?

Schoop's <.300 obp and >60 XBH was only the 21st player season like that in history.  I like to think of him as a ball crusher, but his exit velocity was 171st of 213 qualifiers.  He gets his crushes for sure, but it seems to be more than offset but too much bad contact.  Standard Orioles damage to contact ratio, I guess  We worry about any change to the low strike zone hurting Britton, but it might really help all our sluggers more than it hurts our pitchers.

Sedlock and some other 1st round picks were college relievers, and it was new to me the perspective that NCAA coaches have been using their best guys as Andrew Millers for some time now.  If we are truly all-in on the end of the Machado/Britton era, could he be Chris Ray'd into the pen by this September and for 2018?

Apparently Mariners fans nicknamed Seth Smith (#50 overall, 2004 draft) "Dad" - that is a nice style match for the kind of player he is.  I suppose Hardy (#56 overall, 2001 draft), who is just 1 month older, gives him some good competition here, but Smith's college time might be the "Dad" edge.  Ping pong is very strong, though.

He started his last year.  With the game schedule like it is I am not surprised that they are using their younger pitchers in such a manner.  Not like they need five man staffs.

[Frobby]

Hardy wasn't really that punchless last year -- an ISO of .138 isn't that bad.   And 7 of his 9 homers and 20 of his 29 doubles came after July 1.   I'd be very happy if he repeated his 2016 rate stats this year, but was able to play 20 more games.   

I do think his habit of not swinging at the first pitch (3.7% last year) makes him too predictable and allows the pitchers too many 0-1 counts.  

[Spy Fox]

On the Hardy subject, he managed to place 6th on Fangraph's list of the "Least Intimidating Hitters In 2016" (among those with 200 PAs). The list was looking for the hitters that saw the highest percentages of fastballs and highest percentages of pitches in the zone, to see who the pitchers were the least afraid of. I'm not sure if JJ is really one of the 10 least threatening hitters around, but it does suggest that pitchers are willing to challenge him and maybe he could be a bit more aggressive.