Greg need your opinion

[crawdad]

Here is what BA had to say about Loewen in 2002:

"With two plus pitches and the possibility of two more, Loewen has legitimate No. 1 starter potential. His fastball usually ranges from 90-95 mph, though it was a bit lower at the end of the season as he tired. His curveball, a big 12-to-6 breaker, is his best pitch. He has a good feel for a changeup and has dabbled with a slider as well. He’s athletic with smooth mechanics, effortless arm action and good extension."

You are right. Loewen projected better than Matusz. :laughlol:

Loewen was projected to have better stuff, but had more significant issues with control. He has never really been able to overcome that. Matusz is far beyond Loewen with his control. I think that is the main difference between the two. Loewen in more of a thrower and Matusz is more of a pitcher.

[allstar1579]

:laughlol:

Maybe so....

But, this comparison may demonstrate what a difference it makes evaluating a college pitcher vs a HS pitcher..... A lot can happen in a few years. Facing the college hitters for several years and still coming out on top is a good thing that supports the notion that college pitchers are a safer pick.

Matusz is clearly a more polished product than Loewen was on his draft day.

I promise I won't get into pitchers versus hitters again

Matusz does have a ton of polish, he is great with his 2 offspeed pitches, I think his polish is his no. 1 trait, because that can't be taught. That being said, I think he projects in the same mold as Moskos, and Detwiler, which is just a hair behind Price last year. There just isn't the pitching depth at the top from last season where all 3 of these guys, on top of Aumont and a few others, made it a fairly solid first round for pitching. Every time I hear "safe pick" I cringe though, just something about it screams to expect the worst for me.

[Pruke]

Wow - what a great discussion if for no other reason, it makes me really think Smoak is a great pick with TBeckham, PAlvarez & Posey potentially off the board. I think I'd take Smoak over Posey anyways.

Thanks for the evolving analysis gang!

[markpolis]

:laughlol:

Maybe so....

But, this comparison may demonstrate what a difference it makes evaluating a college pitcher vs a HS pitcher..... A lot can happen in a few years. Facing the college hitters for several years and still coming out on top is a good thing that supports the notion that college pitchers are a safer pick.

Matusz is clearly a more polished product than Loewen was on his draft day.

Good points. Also, Matusz was drafted by the Angels in the 4th round out of high school. He would have gone higher but he had high contract demands. I like the fact he was a stud coming out of HS and has only improved his draft status in college. This really shows something about his makeup and character. Something you can't discount when selecting players.

[allstar1579]

Good points. Also, Matusz was drafted by the Angels in the 4th round out of high school. He would have gone higher but he had high contract demands. I like the fact he was a stud coming out of HS and has only improved his draft status in college. This really shows something about his makeup and character. Something you can't discount when selecting players.

Yeah I was going to mention that earlier but I forgot, it seems like just about all of these top pitchers were taken in 04/05. I know we drafted Scheppers, and ANA took Matusz. This is why we should be excited to let JJ do his thing, and draft some HS guys in the later rounds, a pitcher we get to sign this year could be a guy that would be in this top 10 mock in 3 or 4 years if we didn't.

[Go_Os]

Hosmer- Morneau with more power potential, won't hit for as high an average

The kid is hitting .471/.607 OBP/.989 SLG in highschool and Morneau is a career .278 hitter. How do you come to your conclusion that a kid with that AVG and OBP will hit for a lower average? To me, he looks like Nick Johnson, but with more power.

[Stotle]

The kid is hitting .471/.607 OBP/.989 SLG in highschool and Morneau is a career .278 hitter. How do you come to your conclusion that a kid with that AVG and OBP will hit for a lower average? To me, he looks like Nick Johnson, but with more power.

To be fair, HS batting average is fairly useless as a measuring tool for future performance. .471 is a very good average for a HSer but it isn't close to "eye-popping". His mechanics, approach and frame are all much more important in trying to figure out what type of pro he could be.

From what I have read/heard he has a great shot to be a good professional hitter. I'm conservative with HSers, so I'd place him around a 30-35 HR "type" and somewhere in the broad range of .280-.300. Again, slapping those numbers on him at this point are a little pointless -- what's important is many teams see the makings of a solid player with pretty sound mechanics, an advanced approach at the plate and a frame projecting for future wood-bat-power.

[allstar1579]

To be fair, HS batting average is fairly useless as a measuring tool for future performance. .471 is a very good average for a HSer but it isn't close to "eye-popping". His mechanics, approach and frame are all much more important in trying to figure out what type of pro he could be.

From what I have read/heard he has a great shot to be a good professional hitter. I'm conservative with HSers, so I'd place him around a 30-35 HR "type" and somewhere in the broad range of .280-.300. Again, slapping those numbers on him at this point are a little pointless -- what's important is many teams see the makings of a solid player with pretty sound mechanics, an advanced approach at the plate and a frame projecting for future wood-bat-power.

This guy knows what he's talking about, trust him on this one

A lot of the elite HS players will put up .500 or better averages, or in the ballpark. Beckham hit .500 even this year, Justin Upton hit .508 his senior year, and his brother BJ hit .641 with 11 HR his senior year. Like Stotle said, .470 is respectable, but even playing the best teams in the country, he is still hitting a lot of pitchers that don't have great off-speed stuff, or really know how to pitch yet, so he hasn't been tested like he will in the high minors. Hosmer has the tools, and has a heck of a projection going for him, but you can't start guessing numbers, because he could develop one tool more than others later and that be the difference between being Nick Johnson and Jason Giambi.