How Much Will It Take To Sign Manny Long Term?

[backwardsk]

I'd give him an opt out, but I'd also include "ambassador years" that rely on him not opting out.

10 yrs/$300M.  Then $4M/yr every year from age 45-95.

He can opt out after year 4, but that means he loses out on the retirement money.

His agent can claim the first half billion dollar man.

[webbrick2010]

Is it time for me (again) to list how just about every MLB mega contract has been a very bad deal for the franchise giving it out?

He is one player, playing one position. He has yet to hit .300, have an OBP over .360, or an OPS > .900.  He has never won an MVP. He is a poor base runner. Last year his walks were down sharply and his K's up.

I'd much rather the O's spend 35/yr million on three good players, or even two really good players.

 

[backwardsk]

 

Is it time for me (again) to list how just about every MLB mega contract has been a very bad deal for the franchise giving it out?

He is one player, playing one position. He has yet to hit .300, have an OBP over .360, or an OPS > .900.  He has never won an MVP. He is a poor base runner. Last year his walks were down sharply and his K's up.

I'd much rather the O's spend 35/yr million on three good players, or even two really good players.

 

Over the past three offseasons, who are the three good players that have signed for $12M?  What caliber player do you expect to get in 2021 for $12M?

How many players in the history of the game has produced more than 15 WAR before they are 24?

[Pheasants]

What if Manny this year plays at the level of the second half of last year rather than continuing to get better as everyone keeps assuming? To me, the figures being thrown out here assume that the first half of last year is an absolute sure thing for every year in the future.  What if Manny is like Markakis and never goes beyond his early showing?  If we give him an opt out, make it mutual.  After 5 years he can leave or we can kick him to the curb because he's only a $20 mil per year player rather than $35 mil.  Please note that I'm not saying he will be a bad player, just not necessarily worthy of the world's largest contract or even second after Harper.

[Frobby]

 

Is it time for me (again) to list how just about every MLB mega contract has been a very bad deal for the franchise giving it out?

Not many players come up for free agency at age 26.   That changes the equation considerably.

[webbrick2010]

 

Not many players come up for free agency at age 26.   That changes the equation considerably.

I don't think so, you are still paying for 6 years in the 30's which will be past prime

If the O's were to sign Manny they would be locking in a decade of mediocrity, as they would not be able to surround him with enough talent to be a championship team.

There is an assumption that the rate of growth in salaries will continue at the rate it has for the past 10 years

That will also prove false. We are at the end of a salary bubble, which is soon going to pop... already has for the Trumbo's , Pedro Alvarez/s, Matt Wieter types

[weams]

 

Is it time for me (again) to list how just about every MLB mega contract has been a very bad deal for the franchise giving it out?

He is one player, playing one position. He has yet to hit .300, have an OBP over .360, or an OPS > .900.  He has never won an MVP. He is a poor base runner. Last year his walks were down sharply and his K's up.

I'd much rather the O's spend 35/yr million on three good players, or even two really good players.

 

Please. It is time.  List them again. I would love to see them. 

[esmd]

Honestly I'm in favor of trading him.  10/300 is too much money to allocate to one player.  It'll cripple the team, and we'll be like Texas was when they signed A-Rod.  What we can't do is make the same mistake Seattle did with A-Rod and let him leave for nothing.  If we don't make a deep playoff run this year, we need to move him next offseason for a king's ransom.  If DD does it right, he can set the franchise up for success for the next 5-10 years by moving Manny and Britton.

[esmd]

 

Is it time for me (again) to list how just about every MLB mega contract has been a very bad deal for the franchise giving it out?

He is one player, playing one position. He has yet to hit .300, have an OBP over .360, or an OPS > .900.  He has never won an MVP. He is a poor base runner. Last year his walks were down sharply and his K's up.

I'd much rather the O's spend 35/yr million on three good players, or even two really good players.

 

Yup.  I love Manny, and will enjoy rooting for him during his remaining time as an Oriole, but paying him what it will take to sign him long term is just a bad idea.  The only teams that can really afford to pay him are NYY, Boston, LAD, and perhaps the Cubs.  Big market teams with open checkbooks.  That ain't us.

[backwardsk]

 

I don't think so, you are still paying for 6 years in the 30's which will be past prime

If the O's were to sign Manny they would be locking in a decade of mediocrity, as they would not be able to surround him with enough talent to be a championship team.

There is an assumption that the rate of growth in salaries will continue at the rate it has for the past 10 years

That will also prove false. We are at the end of a salary bubble, which is soon going to pop... already has for the Trumbo's , Pedro Alvarez/s, Matt Wieter types

It's not unreasonable to think that a competitive 23 man roster can be created for $100M when you are already getting about 8-12WAR from your other two guys.

[backwardsk]

 

Honestly I'm in favor of trading him.  10/300 is too much money to allocate to one player.  It'll cripple the team, and we'll be like Texas was when they signed A-Rod.  What we can't do is make the same mistake Seattle did with A-Rod and let him leave for nothing.  If we don't make a deep playoff run this year, we need to move him next offseason for a king's ransom.  If DD does it right, he can set the franchise up for success for the next 5-10 years by moving Manny and Britton.

What kind of ransom do you think a win now team will give up for one year of service?

People want to say Donaldson is better than Manny.  Look at what he brought back.

[webbrick2010]

 

Honestly I'm in favor of trading him.  10/300 is too much money to allocate to one player.  It'll cripple the team, and we'll be like Texas was when they signed A-Rod.  What we can't do is make the same mistake Seattle did with A-Rod and let him leave for nothing.  If we don't make a deep playoff run this year, we need to move him next offseason for a king's ransom.  If DD does it right, he can set the franchise up for success for the next 5-10 years by moving Manny and Britton.

That boat has sailed, he's not going to get much for one year of control

DD/Buck are not going to trade him. They are going to ride him to FA and hope for a couple wild card berths. Than we get nothing. Then we get a new GM/Manager. Then the un-necessarily painful rebuild.

[NCRaven]

 

I don't think so, you are still paying for 6 years in the 30's which will be past prime

 

No, if we sign him to an extension now, rather than wait two years when he'll be a free agent, we get him at age 24 and have 6 years in his 20's and only 4 in his early 30's, which is not exactly over the hill.  And if he gets an opt out after year 5 and exercises, the O's don't have to pay for any of his age 30 seasons, unless they want to negotiate an new contract at that time.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, esmd said:

Honestly I'm in favor of trading him.  10/300 is too much money to allocate to one player.  It'll cripple the team, and we'll be like Texas was when they signed A-Rod.  What we can't do is make the same mistake Seattle did with A-Rod and let him leave for nothing.  If we don't make a deep playoff run this year, we need to move him next offseason for a king's ransom.  If DD does it right, he can set the franchise up for success for the next 5-10 years by moving Manny and Britton.

2nded...and anyone thinking with their head and not their heart would agree with this. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there's not doubt in my mind that Manny's going to the highest bidder (and that won't be us). The only thing that might effect his decision, other than price, is whether he prefers to play SS or 3B. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Over the past three offseasons, who are the three good players that have signed for $12M?  What caliber player do you expect to get in 2021 for $12M?

How many players in the history of the game has produced more than 15 WAR before they are 24?

This is my issue with the takes that we heard during the Chris Davis FA period of "spread that money around for a few players."  It's never seems to be accompanied by examples of actual players.