How Much Will It Take To Sign Manny Long Term?

[thezeroes]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

So, of course, I did it.    Excluding the three listed players who haven't yet completed 10 years beyond age 24 (Trout, Heyward, Machado), this group of players averaged 30.0 WAR by age 24 and then 59.1 WAR over their next ten seasons.     The top player on the list over his next ten years was Willie Mays -- 24.8 WAR by age 24, 95.4 WAR in his next ten seasons.    The lowest was Vada Pinson, 30.9 WAR by age 24, 23.8 his next ten seasons.    On average, these players had 1.9 times as much WAR in the next 10 seasons as they did by age 24.    For Manny, that would lead to expected WAR of 48.1 over the next decade.    19 of the 26 players on the list exceeded that.   At current FA prices, 48.1 WAR is worth about $383 mm.    Factor in that Manny's not a free agent for 2 more years, and a haircut to $350 mm sounds about right.    

Good work. 

[mdbdotcom]

Only a team that could continue to thrive if Manny were to suffer a series of David Wright type injuries -- not hurt enough to collect insurance, but not healthy enough to contribute consistently -- should do anything like 10/350. I don't see the Orioles as one of those teams.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Only a team that could continue to thrive if Manny were to suffer a series of David Wright type injuries -- not hurt enough to collect insurance, but not healthy enough to contribute consistently -- should do anything like 10/350. I don't see the Orioles as one of those teams.

I hope the draft pick hits.

[mdbdotcom]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope the draft pick hits.

I hope we have a GM and a manager by the winter meetings.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I hope we have a GM and a manager by the winter meetings.

Ownership has had plenty of time to look.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ownership has had plenty of time to look.

If only there were a Rule 5 draft for management personnel.

[VeveJones007]

Arguing against a large contract for Manny by pointing to the Trout contract is classic post hoc ergo proctor hoc fallacy.

The Angels are bad because they haven't been able to develop good young players to put around Trout, not because Trout's contract has prevented them from spending in free agency.

The O's can win with or without Manny by making smart decisions and developing young players. 

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, VeveJones007 said:

Arguing against a large contract for Manny by pointing to the Trout contract is classic post hoc ergo proctor hoc fallacy.

The Angels are bad because they haven't been able to develop good young players to put around Trout, not because Trout's contract has prevented them from spending in free agency.

The O's can win with or without Manny by making smart decisions and developing young players. 

Trout hadn't even gotten very expensive yet.   And the Angels are 38 games over .500 over the last five years, despite their poor year in 2016.     

[Larry18]

The Angels at a glance,

January 2011 they trade 2 years of Mike Napoli ($15M total salary. 7.2 rWAR) for 2years of Vernon Wells ($57M/0.2 rWAR)

December 2011 they sign 32 year old Albert Pujols to a 10/240 contract ( 5 years in and he's produced 14.7 rWAR)

December 2011 they sign 31 year old CJ WIlson to a 5/77.5 contract (5.2 rWAR)

December 2012 they sign 32 year old Josh Hamilton to a 5/125 contract (3.0 rWAR then traded to the Rangers for $6M in salary relief)

 

I don't think it's Trout. However it does point out that the best player can't make up for the worst front office.

 

 

[joeyc]

15 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I don't believe that there is any way that his agent would let him sign a four-year deal at this point.  Too close to free agency.

Especially when that agent is Scott Boras. No way he lets him sign a 4 year deal now. The Orioles had their chance to sign him to a long term deal last spring. Boras was in favor of it and The O's said no. Now Boras will remember that and say no to them when they come calling. It's hard to route for specific players anymore. There is no consistency anymore.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, joeyc said:

Especially when that agent is Scott Boras. No way he lets him sign a 4 year deal now. The Orioles had their chance to sign him to a long term deal last spring. Boras was in favor of it and The O's said no. Now Boras will remember that and say no to them when they come calling. It's hard to route for specific players anymore. There is no consistency anymore.

Boras isn't his agent.

[wildcard]

There has never been a 350m contract in baseball.   Stanton's 325m contract was for 13 years.   Manny numbers are not as good has ARod's were in 2001.   They are not as good a Mike Trout's are now.  Manny has not been a league MVP.    I think Manny would sign for 10/300m.  If he signs next off season he might sign for a little less.  Maybe 10/290m because there is one arbitration year left.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There has never been a 350m contract in baseball.   Stanton's 325m contract was for 13 years.   Manny numbers are not as good has ARod's were in 2001.   They are not as good a Mike Trout's are now.  Manny has not been a league MVP.    I think Manny would sign for 10/300m.  If he signs next off season he might sign for a little less.  Maybe 10/290m because there is one arbitration year left.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

You might be right, but I don't think the ARod comparison is a good one, since there's been 15 years of salary inflation in the interim.    When A-Rod signed his deal, free agents were valued at approximately $3.9 mm per WAR.    Today's free agent deals are about double that.    At today's prices, the ARod contract would have been about $500 mm.

That said, after sleeping on it last night, I think 10/$350 mm would be too rich for Manny right now.    He might get that in two years if he has two good seasons in 2017-18.    I'd say $300 mm is closer to the mark, maybe a little more.

[Mayor McCheese]

To answer the question - no one knows yet.  Both Harper and Manny will test free agency and set the market price.  They could each end up with the 2 biggest contracts in MLB history.

I see the Orioles trying to extend Manny this year but it will be "hometown" offer which will just get some LOL's from Mannys camp.  They will again make a "competitive" offer to Manny during FA; however, the offer will be around the AAV but for a much shorter term.

In the end, I think we just get a comp. draft pick out of this because he wants to say - show. me. the. money!

[esmd]

3 hours ago, Larry18 said:

The Angels at a glance,

January 2011 they trade 2 years of Mike Napoli ($15M total salary. 7.2 rWAR) for 2years of Vernon Wells ($57M/0.2 rWAR)

December 2011 they sign 32 year old Albert Pujols to a 10/240 contract ( 5 years in and he's produced 14.7 rWAR)

December 2011 they sign 31 year old CJ WIlson to a 5/77.5 contract (5.2 rWAR)

December 2012 they sign 32 year old Josh Hamilton to a 5/125 contract (3.0 rWAR then traded to the Rangers for $6M in salary relief)

 

I don't think it's Trout. However it does point out that the best player can't make up for the worst front office.

 

 

Which was my point in the first place.  You can have the best player in the game, but if you can't afford (or aren't good enough) to put 24 other good players around him, you're not going to win.  For the Angels, the issue is their other bad contracts and injuries.  For the Orioles, it's that Machado at $35M would take up 21% of their payroll, assuming a 160M payroll, which I think is probably towards the upper end of what they can afford.  One player taking up 21% of your payroll just isn't smart management.  Shoot, even if they went to 200M, it would 17.5%.  Still not good management.  In short, the Orioles cannot afford Manny at 35M, which he's likely to get from someone else.  So the best move, IMO, is to trade him for as many young players/prospects as you can get.  MacPhail set us up for success with the Bedard trade, the thing that needs to happen is for DD to have a similar result by trading Manny.