TT: Statcast shows Orioles outfield defense is below average so far in 2017

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/?p=2583&preview=true

In case you haven't noticed yet, Baseball's Statcast is tracking all catches this year by using their Catch Probability method. It's a pretty simple system that gives you an iea f how well your outfielders are catching balls compared to other outfielders. They use a simple five star breakdown that looks like this:

5 Star Ranking Breakdown:
5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

If you want to know how they came up with this breakdown go here for more information:

So how are the Orioles outfielder doing?

Outfielder	5 Star Outs	Opp	%	4 Star Outs	Opp	%	3 Star Outs	Opp	%	2 Star Outs	Opp	%	1 Star Outs	Opp	%
Seth Smith	0	7	0	1	3	33.3	4	4	100	2	2	100	5	5	100
Adam Jones	0	12	0	1	5	20	6	10	60	6	7	85.7	10	10	100
Hyun Soo Kim	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	3	66.7	2	2	100	4	4	100
Joey Rickard	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	3	66.7	1	3	33.3	6	6	100
Trey Mancini	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	3	5	60	5	5	100
Mark Trumbo	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0		1	2	50	5	7	71.4
Total	0	30	0.0%	2	13	15.4%	14	24	58.3%	15	21	71.4%	35	37	94.6%
MLB AVG	43	682	6.3%	137	388	35.3%	292	431	67.7%	410	510	80.4%	953	1018	93.6%

Let's just say the numbers pretty much confirm what most scouts and pundits think of the Orioles below average outfield defense. They are below major league average in every category except 1 star catches. Most striking is that the Orioles outfield almost never makes those 4 and 5 star catches catching only two in 43 chances (4.6%) while major league average is 16.8% (180 in 1070 chances) overall. 

Perhaps most disappointing is the play of center fielder Adam Jones who is below average in 3-star catches and above making only one in 17 chances of 4-star catches and above. That's just not getting it done from your center fielder and highlights the need to move Jones to right field at some point in the future. He's still clearly the best the Orioles have to put in center, but his range is clearly below average at this point in his career.

Seth Smith is the only Orioles outfielder to make all of his 3-star catches and below (11 for 11) while Mark Trumbo's numbers show his outfield time should be limited to "break glass in case of emergency".

The Orioles lack of range in their outfielders is certainly highlighted by their almost non existent four and five star catches and even in their below average three star catches. I doubt this comes as a surprise to any Orioles fan that has been watching the outfield defense this year, but it's always interesting to see the stats back up the eyes. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

On the bright side Kim's numbers look better than I would have expected.

Otherwise yea, this was obviously going to be a team weakness with the roster as constructed.

Would have liked to have seen Gentry's numbers.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

On the bright side Kim's numbers look better than I would have expected.

Otherwise yea, this was obviously going to be a team weakness with the roster as constructed.

Would have liked to have seen Gentry's numbers.

Gentry was about what I expected. Got to everything 3 and below. 

5st  4st  3st  2st 1st          
0 2  0 0  2 2 0 0  3 3

Remember though, this is basically only range. Gentry's arm was well below average.

[SteveA]

For the most part it seems to confirm the eye test, except maybe in regards to Adam.

I thought he was getting to more balls this year, and I thought he had made at least a couple really tough plays.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

For the most part it seems to confirm the eye test, except maybe in regards to Adam.

I thought he was getting to more balls this year, and I thought he had made at least a couple really tough plays.

Perhaps he made them tough by getting bad jumps or not having great speed? On TV it's tough to see the jumps unless they replay it.

[SilverRocket]

That link mentions "distance of the OF at the time the ball was hit to where it landed". Jones could just be benefiting from better positioning, not better range.

It looks like this doesn't include the extremely routine plays (95%+). It shows 12 catches and 21 opportunities for Seth Smith, but he's had 51 putouts. So 39 of them weren't counted here.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SilverRocket said:

That link mentions "distance of the OF at the time the ball was hit to where it landed". Jones could just be benefiting from better positioning, not better range.

It looks like this doesn't include the extremely routine plays (95%+). It shows 12 catches and 21 opportunities for Seth Smith, but he's had 51 putouts. So 39 of them weren't counted here.

It says as much,

Quote

1 Star: 91 - 95%

Fielders are not award a star for catches with a catch probability over 95%.

[Frobby]

Per fangraphs, the O's outfield is at -4.3 UZR/150, 20th in MLB.   That's poor, but a big upgrade from last year's -11.2 UZR/150, dead last in MLB.      So yeah, the OF defense is still noticeably below average, but at least it's not a complete laughing stock like last year.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per fangraphs, the O's outfield is at -4.3 UZR/150, 20th in MLB.   That's poor, but a big upgrade from last year's -11.2 UZR/150, dead last in MLB.      So yeah, the OF defense is still noticeably below average, but at least it's not a complete laughing stock like last year.

Adam playing deeper.  Smith > Trumbo.  Mancini > Kim.  Plus the expanded bench allowed us to sneak Rickard and Gentry in late in games.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Adam playing deeper.  Smith > Trumbo.  Mancini > Kim.  Plus the expanded bench allowed us to sneak Rickard and Gentry in late in games.  

I am not at all sure that is the case.  Certainly there is not enough data to make that case at this point.

Smith is better than Trumbo.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Per fangraphs, the O's outfield is at -4.3 UZR/150, 20th in MLB.   That's poor, but a big upgrade from last year's -11.2 UZR/150, dead last in MLB.      So yeah, the OF defense is still noticeably below average, but at least it's not a complete laughing stock like last year.

My guess is that's because Trumbo is not weighing them down like a boat anchor since he's only been out there a handful of games. His numbers are awful.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

That link mentions "distance of the OF at the time the ball was hit to where it landed". Jones could just be benefiting from better positioning, not better range.

It looks like this doesn't include the extremely routine plays (95%+). It shows 12 catches and 21 opportunities for Seth Smith, but he's had 51 putouts. So 39 of them weren't counted here.

Remember, ground balls fielded in the outfield counts as a chance. This only tracks fly balls he had a chance at catching within the probability zone.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Remember, ground balls fielded in the outfield counts as a chance. 

No they don't.   Chances = putouts + assists + errors.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No they don't.   Chances = putouts + assists + errors.

So how would a hard hit ball at an outfielder that rolls under his glove be considered an error if it was not a chance? I'll ask Jim Hennemen.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So how would a hard hit ball at an outfielder that rolls under his glove be considered an error if it was not a chance? I'll ask Jim Hennemen.

If it's an error, it's a chance, but if there's no error, it's not a chance.   Take a look at any outfielder's stats on BB-ref and you'll see that what I'm saying is true (chances = putouts + assists + errors).      I'm not saying it's logical.    For that matter, if an ourfielder makes an accurate throw that doesn't result in an out, that's not a chance.    But if he makes an inaccurate throw where a runner advances, that is an error and hence also a chance.