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Beckham v. Miller

Yardball85

By Yardball85
in Orioles Talk

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Yardball85 Hangout Veteran Council

Yardball85

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Mods, feel free to merge this thread.  

I find it interesting that one of the reasons the Rays traded Beckham (or so they say) is that Beckham and Brad Miller were creating a logjam at second base and they wanted to get Miller more at bats. Miller actually walks a ton, and he's turned a .188 BA into a .330 OBP.  However, his OPS is only .648.  Miller has been worth an ugly -0.3 WAR this year.  Meanwhile, Beckham, in just his time in Tampa, was worth 1.4 wins and this year, combined, has been worth 3.0 WAR.

I kind of like the Rays, and definitely do not share my disdain for the other AL East teams for them.  However, this is kind of satisfying to see that the Orioles, so far, were able to get an impact player in Beckham because of a potential misjudgment by the Rays.

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Yardball85 Hangout Veteran Council

Yardball85

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7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Beckham's starting to show some cracks of late, but hopefully he averages out to be a better player than who he was with the Rays.

Yeah, but we all knew Beckham wasn't the other-worldly player the Orioles saw during the first 20 games of August.  However, as you said, if he averages out to be around a .775-.800 OPS guy, that would be a huge win for the Orioles.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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With all the credit Buck is giving Hardy for working with Beckham, its sounds like Buck would like to have Hardy back next year as a utility infielder to have him continue to help Beckham improve his defense.

Hardy will have to determine if he can get a starting SS gig with another club but if he can't then   he may consider a 2m contract to come back to the O's.   If Hardy and Bobby Dickerson continue to work with Beckham for a year then Beckham could turn into a consistent defensive performer.

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TradeAngelos All-Star

TradeAngelos

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Beckham has been worth 1.8 wins and has a .969 OPS since he got here. A total of 3.0 so far between both teams this year. He was trending up this season overall even before he was traded.  I will predict by the end of his 3 years here this will go down as one of the most lopsided trades the Orioles have ever made. I know all the little "Rays are so smart!" fanboys don't want to believe it, but they royally screwed up here by the looks of it. No one thinks he is a 3-4 win player but he **could** be, and even at the worst he might be a 2 win player. Heck he was putting up 1.3 a season previous 2 years. Just going off that he would be worth about 55m at the least if he just kept that up by the end of his contract, with what he has already done.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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22 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Beckham has been worth 1.8 wins and has a .969 OPS since he got here. A total of 3.0 so far between both teams this year. He was trending up this season overall even before he was traded.  I will predict by the end of his 3 years here this will go down as one of the most lopsided trades the Orioles have ever made. I know all the little "Rays are so smart!" fanboys don't want to believe it, but they royally screwed up here by the looks of it. No one thinks he is a 3-4 win player but he **could** be, and even at the worst he might be a 2 win player. Heck he was putting up 1.3 a season previous 2 years. Just going off that he would be worth about 55m at the least if he just kept that up by the end of his contract, with what he has already done.

But he is a 3 win player, at least this year.

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TradeAngelos All-Star

TradeAngelos

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19 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

But he is a 3 win player, at least this year.

Oh I know I was just going as low and conservative as possible so I didn't hear "there is no way he is a 3 win player over the next 3 years!". He very well could be, and if he is then his value approaches/exceeds 100m including this season if we assume he finishes with 2 wins this year. And he could very well do all this before that kid we traded even gets to the majors. IF he even does. Between Beckham, Mancini, Schoop and now the promise of Hayes things are looking a lot different for the near future with the value we are getting from those deals that pay them peanuts for the production. You also have Castro and Givens giving you solid value for the immediate future. Throw Gausman and Brach in there too, although not to the extent of the younger guys but still +EV. The window is wide open......if Manny stays. 

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mrpennybags Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

mrpennybags

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It felt like a very 'system' move from the rays. Trade the player well before he starts making big money, get resources for far in the future, look to the patient player over the free swinger. But in the end they gave up a player who is controllable for a while with some potential who was already pretty good and they didn't get a big package in return.

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MachoMachadoMan Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

MachoMachadoMan

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5 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

I will predict by the end of his 3 years here this will go down as one of the most lopsided trades the Orioles have ever made. I know all the little "Rays are so smart!" fanboys don't want to believe it, but they royally screwed up here by the looks of it.

We may not be able to make a ruling on this trade for 6-7 years because of the player the O's traded. Tobias Myers joined their Short-A team in Hudson Valley and continued to dominate the way he was in Aberdeen. He finished this season with 77 Ks and just 12 BBs in 63 innings with a WHIP a hair about 1. The Rays have a track record of developing outstanding starting pitching and the O's have proven terrible in this respect. If Beckham leaves in 3 years and Myers is breaking into the Rays starting rotation, we may think quite differently about this deal. 

Still looks like a good deal and I've been happy with the results so far. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

We may not be able to make a ruling on this trade for 6-7 years because of the player the O's traded. Tobias Myers joined their Short-A team in Hudson Valley and continued to dominate the way he was in Aberdeen. He finished this season with 77 Ks and just 12 BBs in 63 innings with a WHIP a hair about 1. The Rays have a track record of developing outstanding starting pitching and the O's have proven terrible in this respect. If Beckham leaves in 3 years and Myers is breaking into the Rays starting rotation, we may think quite differently about this deal. 

Still looks like a good deal and I've been happy with the results so far. 

Sometimes there are trades that benefit both teams.    This may be one of them.    My primary concern is getting value on our end.    So far, so good.   

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Enjoy Terror Hangout Grand Counsel

Enjoy Terror

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6 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

I know all the little "Rays are so smart!" fanboys don't want to believe it, but they royally screwed up here by the looks of it.

The Maddon/Friedman duo hasn't been together in a bit, that opinion of the Rays is as outdated as Billy Beane having a good idea about taking walks.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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7 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

Beckham has been worth 1.8 wins and has a .969 OPS since he got here. A total of 3.0 so far between both teams this year. He was trending up this season overall even before he was traded.  I will predict by the end of his 3 years here this will go down as one of the most lopsided trades the Orioles have ever made. I know all the little "Rays are so smart!" fanboys don't want to believe it, but they royally screwed up here by the looks of it. No one thinks he is a 3-4 win player but he **could** be, and even at the worst he might be a 2 win player. Heck he was putting up 1.3 a season previous 2 years. Just going off that he would be worth about 55m at the least if he just kept that up by the end of his contract, with what he has already done.

I agree.  It would be ironic if JJ's replacement arrives here by as lopsided a trade as the one that brought JJ here. 

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