Orioles Have No Plans of Shopping Machado

[Sessh]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm pretty sure you don't understand BABIP and the underlying principles of using it.

I suggest you go study more.

Not necessary. Those numbers tell the same story as the other statistics do and batters have much more control over their BABIP than, say, a pitcher. It's much more about talent for hitters. Are you suggesting he's been getting unlucky for the majority of the last nine months? I don't buy that.. not when the other stats tell the same story. Being well below league average on this much of a consistent basis is not mostly luck. One or maybe two months? Maybe, but not six of nine.

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Yeah because exit velocity is extremely important when dishing out record setting contracts. I know what BABIP stands for and league average is around .300 for that. Machado's by month this year are:

April - .224
May - .191
June - .242
July - .327
August - .341
September - .230

On balls in play that stay in the park, he is WELL below average most of the time and that extends in two of the last three months of last year. I expect a $30M player to be MUCH better than that. Fine though, let's look at more stats which you seem to believe tell a different story than the one I'm telling.

- wRC+ where 100 is league average, Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in those six months.

- wOBA league average is around .320 Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in five of those six months with the other being .329; barely above average.

It's all the same story even with your "more useful stats". So much for all that yelling. Same story.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machados-lost-season-now-found/

Read this, he's pretty much a six WAR player going forward and he's only 25 so he's not likely to decline significantly soon.

 

8M/WAR is pretty standard on the free agency market.  The $/WAR increases pretty much every year.  So even using the low estimate of 8M/WAR for the entire length of the contract, he would need to produce 3.75 WAR/year on average over the course of the contract to be worth the deal.  Manny has averaged 5+ WAR per season over 5 seasons (starting with his first full season), and that is including an injury shortened season and this down year.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Not necessary. Those numbers tell the same story as the other statistics do and batters have much more control over their BABIP than, say, a pitcher. It's much more about talent for hitters. Are you suggesting he's been getting unlucky for the majority of the last nine months? I don't buy that.. not when the other stats tell the same story. Being well below league average on this much of a consistent basis is not mostly luck. One or maybe two months? Maybe, but not six of nine.

Much more?

No.

Not much more.

If a hitters disciple numbers are consistent (Machado's actually improved), their batted ball profiles don't change dramatically (Manny did hurt himself some here), and they continue to hit the ball hard (Manny's exit velocity was excellent) then yes, a lot of it is bad luck.  Now if you were to show me video of Manny costing himself a couple base hits by not running hard to first I wouldn't be surprised but that is about as far as I would go.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machados-lost-season-now-found/

Read this, he's pretty much a six WAR player going forward and he's only 25 so he's not likely to decline significantly soon.

 

8M/WAR is pretty standard on the free agency market.  The $/WAR increases pretty much every year.  So even using the low estimate of 8M/WAR for the entire length of the contract, he would need to produce 3.75 WAR/year on average over the course of the contract to be worth the deal.  Manny has averaged 5+ WAR per season over 5 seasons (starting with his first full season), and that is including an injury shortened season and this down year.

Pretty sure it is now personal between Sessh and Manny.

[Sessh]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machados-lost-season-now-found/

Read this, he's pretty much a six WAR player going forward and he's only 25 so he's not likely to decline significantly soon.

 

8M/WAR is pretty standard on the free agency market.  The $/WAR increases pretty much every year.  So even using the low estimate of 8M/WAR for the entire length of the contract, he would need to produce 3.75 WAR/year on average over the course of the contract to be worth the deal.  Manny has averaged 5+ WAR per season over 5 seasons (starting with his first full season), and that is including an injury shortened season and this down year.

Fair enough. I do expect Manny, like many players in their contract years, to magically get it together and have career years. I don't think Manny will be any different there. If Trumbo can do it, so can Manny. Fortunately, it's unlikely we'll be the one signing him.

 

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Much more?

No.

Not much more.

If a hitters disciple numbers are consistent (Machado's actually improved), their batted ball profiles don't change dramatically (Manny did hurt himself some here), and they continue to hit the ball hard (Manny's exit velocity was excellent) then yes, a lot of it is bad luck.  Now if you were to show me video of Manny costing himself a couple base hits by not running hard to first I wouldn't be surprised but that is about as far as I would go.

I went to check Fangraphs just to make sure I didn't mis-remember. It says:

Quote

Batters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers do, which is another way of saying that a higher percentage of batter BABIP is controlled by actual talent levels.

So, perhaps you should take that up with the folks over at Fangraphs. Being unlucky for an entire years worth of baseball is nonsensical to me especially for a guy that is supposed to be worth $30M. One month? Sure. Two? Maybe, but six of nine is pushing it way too far.

Anyways, no point in continuing to argue about this. We disagree and that's fine, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't yell and talk down to me telling me I need to go study next time for no damn reason at all, please? I don't do that to you. Next time, why don't you just post the "most useful stats" that show how much of a fool I am for thinking BA has any merit at all instead of being condescending and rude. You of all people around here are better than that and I expect better.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure it is now personal between Sessh and Manny.

Seems like it.

9 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Not necessary. Those numbers tell the same story as the other statistics do and batters have much more control over their BABIP than, say, a pitcher. It's much more about talent for hitters. Are you suggesting he's been getting unlucky for the majority of the last nine months? I don't buy that.. not when the other stats tell the same story. Being well below league average on this much of a consistent basis is not mostly luck. One or maybe two months? Maybe, but not six of nine.

So Manny controlled his BABIP and made it bad for 6 months, and then controlled his BABIP and made it good for 3 months.

Quick calculation, his xBABIP is .022 higher than his BABIP, his line would look more like .286/.340/.509 which would just be a hair off last year.  Yes, there are some bad things this year, (less line drives), but I'd argue there are good things as well (more hard hit balls, more walks, less strikeouts).

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Fair enough. I do expect Manny, like many players in their contract years, to magically get it together and have career years. I don't think Manny will be any different there. If Trumbo can do it, so can Manny. Fortunately, it's unlikely we'll be the one signing him.

 

I went to check Fangraphs just to make sure I didn't mis-remember. It says:

So, perhaps you should take that up with the folks over at Fangraphs. Being unlucky for an entire years worth of baseball is nonsensical to me especially for a guy that is supposed to be worth $30M. One month? Sure. Two? Maybe, but six of nine is pushing it way too far.

Anyways, no point in continuing to argue about this. We disagree and that's fine, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't yell and talk down to me telling me I need to go study next time for no damn reason at all, please? I don't do that to you. Next time, why don't you just post the "most useful stats" that show how much of a fool I am for thinking BA has any merit at all instead of being condescending and rude. You of all people around here are better than that and I expect better.

I'll go ahead and disagree with Fangraphs over the term "much".  I think it is not the correct term.  Maybe "moderately".

Look at Parra a couple years ago, how much did his BABIP drop when he got traded to Baltimore?  You think he controlled that?

Now obviously a faster runner will generally have a higher BABIP than a slower runner and a player that hits a lot of line drives will do better than someone who doesn't.  But luck can still be a huge factor.

[Sessh]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

So Manny controlled his BABIP and made it bad for 6 months, and then controlled his BABIP and made it good for 3 months.

Quick calculation, his xBABIP is .022 higher than his BABIP, his line would look more like .286/.340/.509 which would just be a hair off last year.  Yes, there are some bad things this year, (less line drives), but I'd argue there are good things as well (more hard hit balls, more walks, less strikeouts).

Whatever. We're not talking about one or two months. We're talking about SIX of NINE, but let's keep acting like it's one or two because that's more comforting, I guess. The more useful stats are useful until it says something unfavorable. Got it. As for it being personal, yeah, sure it is. I made up the numbers and what they mean and I put the numbers up there myself to make him look bad. Of course, it all makes sense now. If you have a problem with how Fangraphs defines BABIP, take it up with them. There are WAY MORE bad things this year than good things and it's not even close and much of it extends into last year as well. I get it, it's all luck, though. I've said all I want to on this subject and there's no point in continuing. Agree to disagree.

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'll go ahead and disagree with Fangraphs over the term "much".  I think it is not the correct term.  Maybe "moderately".

Look at Parra a couple years ago, how much did his BABIP drop when he got traded to Baltimore?  You think he controlled that?

Now obviously a faster runner will generally have a higher BABIP than a slower runner and a player that hits a lot of line drives will do better than someone who doesn't.  But luck can still be a huge factor.

Ok wait. So, you tell me to go "study more" even though the source of the information I was supposed to study you don't even agree with? Ok. You guys are too much. Agree to disagree.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Whatever. We're not talking about one or two months. We're talking about SIX of NINE, but let's keep acting like it's one or two because that's more comforting, I guess. The more useful stats are useful until it says something unfavorable. Got it. As for it being personal, yeah, sure it is. I made up the numbers and what they mean and I put the numbers up there myself to make him look bad. Of course, it all makes sense now. If you have a problem with how Fangraphs defines BABIP, take it up with them. There are WAY MORE bad things this year than good things and it's not even close and much of it extends into last year as well. I get it, it's all luck, though. I've said all I want to on this subject and there's no point in continuing. Agree to disagree.

Ok wait. So, you tell me to go "study more" even though the source of the information I was supposed to study you don't even agree with? Ok. You guys are too much. Agree to disagree.

Me disagreeing with one word in a sentence doesn't mean I don't agree with them in the general.  I think they used an overly strong term.  There is no set definition of "much".

Parra's ridiculously high BABIP lasted a long longer than one or two months.  His BABIP by month in 2015, 308/349/341/465/247/272.  Heck his Sept/OCT of 2014 it was 356.  There you go, five months in a row over 300 with all but one of them at least 341.  Was he really good for those five months in a row or was he mostly lucky?

[Tryptamine]

Please stop falling into the same trap that people who are newly familiar to babip always fall into. Yes .300 is league average, but that does not mean that a player with a .340 babip is lucky or that another player with a .265babip is unlucky. There are 3 types of babip outcomes, line drives, flyballs and ground balls. In order of most likely to become a hit is line drive,ground ball and flyball. Therefore someone who naturally hits a ton of flyballs,Jose Bautista, 40-45%+ is naturally going to have a very low babip because they hit a much higher percentage of flyballs. On the other hand you have Freddie Freeman. He hits an insane number of line drives and regularly posts babips in excess of .340 which does not make him lucky. There's also other variables when deciding if babip is luck or reasonable. Quality of contact%(SOFT,MED,HARD), player speed and right handed vs left handed batters.

 

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, Sessh said:

Yeah because exit velocity is extremely important when dishing out record setting contracts. I know what BABIP stands for and league average is around .300 for that. Machado's by month this year are:

April - .224
May - .191
June - .242
July - .327
August - .341
September - .230

On balls in play that stay in the park, he is WELL below average most of the time and that extends in two of the last three months of last year. I expect a $30M player to be MUCH better than that. Fine though, let's look at more stats which you seem to believe tell a different story than the one I'm telling.

- wRC+ where 100 is league average, Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in those six months.

- wOBA league average is around .320 Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in five of those six months with the other being .329; barely above average.

It's all the same story even with your "more useful stats". So much for all that yelling. Same story.

Wow! I didn't know any of that. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Please stop falling into the same trap that people who are newly familiar to babip always fall into. Yes .300 is league average, but that does not mean that a player with a .340 babip is lucky or that another player with a .265babip is unlucky. There are 3 types of babip outcomes, line drives, flyballs and ground balls. In order of most likely to become a hit is line drive,ground ball and flyball. Therefore someone who naturally hits a ton of flyballs,Jose Bautista, 40-45%+ is naturally going to have a very low babip because they hit a much higher percentage of flyballs. On the other hand you have Freddie Freeman. He hits an insane number of line drives and regularly posts babips in excess of .340 which does not make him lucky. There's also other variables when deciding if babip is luck or reasonable. Quality of contact%(SOFT,MED,HARD), player speed and right handed vs left handed batters.

 

No one was doing that.

Factors influencing BABIP have been discussed.

Machado's outcomes did not change to a degree that would have accounted for his BABIP drop.

Just like Parra's five month spike in BABIP was largely not a result of him dramatically improving as a hitter.

 

I still don't like the use of the term "much" I think it overstates the issue and that recent findings show that pitchers do have a bit more control then previously suspected.

[PaulFolk]

2 hours ago, Sessh said:

Whatever. We're not talking about one or two months. We're talking about SIX of NINE, but let's keep acting like it's one or two because that's more comforting, I guess. The more useful stats are useful until it says something unfavorable. Got it. As for it being personal, yeah, sure it is. I made up the numbers and what they mean and I put the numbers up there myself to make him look bad. Of course, it all makes sense now. If you have a problem with how Fangraphs defines BABIP, take it up with them. There are WAY MORE bad things this year than good things and it's not even close and much of it extends into last year as well. I get it, it's all luck, though. I've said all I want to on this subject and there's no point in continuing. Agree to disagree.

I'm not clear on why you're parsing it into months. All that matters is where you end up over a full season. Manny had a couple of bad months last year but still had strong overall numbers at the plate-- .294/.343/.533/.876, 37 HRs, 96 RBIs, and a 130 OPS+. I think anyone would be happy with that kind of season, especially from a third baseman who plays Gold Glove defense.

So why use months as a unit of measurement? It's misleading, and it doesn't really tell the story of how a player fared overall.

[Superbee83]

13 hours ago, Sessh said:

Yeah because exit velocity is extremely important when dishing out record setting contracts. I know what BABIP stands for and league average is around .300 for that. Machado's by month this year are:

April - .224
May - .191
June - .242
July - .327
August - .341
September - .230

On balls in play that stay in the park, he is WELL below average most of the time and that extends in two of the last three months of last year. I expect a $30M player to be MUCH better than that. Fine though, let's look at more stats which you seem to believe tell a different story than the one I'm telling.

- wRC+ where 100 is league average, Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in those six months.

- wOBA league average is around .320 Machado is below average and sometimes WELL below average in five of those six months with the other being .329; barely above average.

It's all the same story even with your "more useful stats". So much for all that yelling. Same story.

    I get it, Machado has been pretty inconsistent at the plate this year. Good post.

    While i give Machado credit for bouncing back after a rough start, he has had an overall down year at the plate IMO.

     More importantly, I think that it is a mistake for the Orioles not to shop Machado. 

    He is a great player, however, I think that they can do more by moving him in a rebuild/retool mode than holding onto him for a        run in 2018 or to build around him for the next 5 to ten years after signing him to a record payday. 

   I prefer the Orioles to build the team around Mancini, Bundy, Gausman, Beckham, and most importantly Schoop. I would try to         extend Schoop this winter and trade Machado for some major league ready pitching prospects and a third baseman to replace       him.

  IMO, this is a better plan than keeping this core together to make another run in 2018.