What do you think is Mancini's ceiling?

[ArtVanDelay]

12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

When I look at him, I see Ryan Braun as the upside. 

That seems way too optimistic. 

[Aristotelian]

17 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

That seems way too optimistic. 

It's supposed to be. The question is ceiling. He has the power and the bat speed. I am not predicting that it will happen. He could also turn out to be Danny Valencia.

[Frobby]

Apparently, Jim Callis doesn't think Trey is in the top 30 rookies in terms of long term potential.   http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/09/jim-callis-on-trey-mancinis-top-30-omission.html

I went back to look at some prior years 15+ years back, and the 30th best rookie normally ends up around 10 WAR.    Trey's at 2.2 this year, 2.5 for his career.     Hopefully he'll make Callis eat his words.   

[Il BuonO]

On 9/22/2017 at 11:06 AM, Aristotelian said:

It's supposed to be. The question is ceiling. He has the power and the bat speed. I am not predicting that it will happen. He could also turn out to be Danny Valencia.

So, a platoon DH?

[mdbdotcom]

I think his ceiling is to be a less-than-great but dependable major league ballplayer who has a fair number of good years as a regular before becoming a corner utility/ph/dh guy off the bench. Nothing wrong with that.

Kevin Millar without the malarkey.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Apparently, Jim Callis doesn't think Trey is in the top 30 rookies in terms of long term potential.   http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/09/jim-callis-on-trey-mancinis-top-30-omission.html

I went back to look at some prior years 15+ years back, and the 30th best rookie normally ends up around 10 WAR.    Trey's at 2.2 this year, 2.5 for his career.     Hopefully he'll make Callis eat his words.   

He responded directly about Trey's omission a couple days ago.  If I recall correctly there were three factors in him not making the list.

1. His age.  Age matters and at 25 he would have been the oldest player on the list.
2. His K/BB ratio is greater than 4/1.
3. Limited defensive profile.

I did expect him to have more than 31 walks, that's less than Schoop. (his walk rate is very slightly higher than Schoop's).

[Luke-OH]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Apparently, Jim Callis doesn't think Trey is in the top 30 rookies in terms of long term potential.   http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/09/jim-callis-on-trey-mancinis-top-30-omission.html

I went back to look at some prior years 15+ years back, and the 30th best rookie normally ends up around 10 WAR.    Trey's at 2.2 this year, 2.5 for his career.     Hopefully he'll make Callis eat his words.   

I think 10 WAR is probably close to the mean outcome for Mancini at this point.  

[ArtVanDelay]

On 9/22/2017 at 0:06 PM, Aristotelian said:

It's supposed to be. The question is ceiling. He has the power and the bat speed. I am not predicting that it will happen. He could also turn out to be Danny Valencia.

Sorry, that’s not his ceiling.  Right-handed Aubrey Huff seems about right. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He responded directly about Trey's omission a couple days ago.  If I recall correctly there were three factors in him not making the list.

1. His age.  Age matters and at 25 he would have been the oldest player on the list.
2. His K/BB ratio is greater than 4/1.
3. Limited defensive profile.

I did expect him to have more than 31 walks, that's less than Schoop. (his walk rate is very slightly higher than Schoop's).

I think his walk rate's about what I would've expected as a rookie, based on his MiL record.   Schoop walked 13 times in his rookie year. Mancini will probably up his walk rate over time, but he's never going to be Nick Markakis out there.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I think 10 WAR is probably close to the mean outcome for Mancini at this point.  

Yeah, I'd guess so.   But I'm hoping for more, of course.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think his walk rate's about what I would've expected as a rookie, based on his MiL record.   Schoop walked 13 times in his rookie year. Mancini will probably up his walk rate over time, but he's never going to be Nick Markakis out there.

Just remember that Mancini and Schoop are both 25.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Just remember that Mancini and Schoop are both 25.

Oh, I'm aware.   But they each had about 2000 PA in the minors before reaching the majors, and Schoop has about 1500 more PA in the majors, so Mancini's not as far up the learning curve.    

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

Yeah, I'd guess so.   But I'm hoping for more, of course.

10 WAR is a great outcome for an 8th round draft pick (or even a late first round pick for that matter).

A little off topic, but man that 2013 draft looks like a real winner.

Guys that have already gotten at least a cup of coffee in the bigs:

Chance Sisco

Trey Mancini

Steven Brault

Jimmy Yacabonis

Donnie Hart

Stefan Crichton

Then you have a few more who look likely to get at least a taste of the bigs at some point, but haven't made it yet.

Hunter Harvey

Stephen Tarpley

Drew Dosch

Austin Wynns

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

...

Then you have a few more who look likely to get at least a taste of the bigs at some point, but haven't made it yet.

Hunter Harvey

Stephen Tarpley

Drew Dosch

Austin Wynns

I sure hope Hunter Harvey gets more than a "taste."

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, George Zuverink said:

I sure hope Hunter Harvey gets more than a "taste."

Me too.