If Tillman repeated his 2016 year the O's may be in the playoffs in 2017

[wildcard]

Funny how one player having a good or bad year can make all the difference for a whole team.   Tillman fell from 16-6 in 2016 to 1-7 in 2017.  That is a 15 game drop.  If Tillman repeated 2016 this year the may have had 90 wins instead  of 75.   Just saying....what  a difference.

[MDK02]

Oh yea, we could have been battling for the division. What a shame.

[Frobby]

It is what it is.     Obviously Tillman's fall was a huge blow to our chances, probably the single biggest thing.    But there were plenty of other disappointments.   

[Aristotelian]

I made this case on another thread. It's not just Tillman, but if you combine the drop in WAR from Tillman, Ubaldo, and Gausman, that is basically the difference. Tillman's decline being the biggest of the three.

[Frobby]

By the way, the OP slightly overstates the impact of Tillman's season.    Last year the team was 22-8 when he started.    This year it was 8-15.    14 fewer wins but only 7 more losses.    So, you'd need to look at the games started by Tillman's replacements.  That's kind of hard to do, because the O's used their off-days to skip a rotation spot numberous times.   We went through the rotation 8 times before Tillman's return, but used a fifth starter only 4 times (going 2-2).   And then after Hellickson arrived, we were on a six-man rotation at times, and Tillman was out of the rotation at other times.    

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is what it is.     Obviously Tillman's fall was a huge blow to our chances, probably the single biggest thing.    But there were plenty of other disappointments.   

IMO you are overthinking it.   If he pitched like he did last year...........

He was injured for all of this year.   Not his fault.   But still something to think about.

[thezeroes]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, the OP slightly overstates the impact of Tillman's season.    Last year the team was 22-8 when he started.    This year it was 8-15.    14 fewer wins but only 7 more losses.    So, you'd need to look at the games started by Tillman's replacements.  That's kind of hard to do, because the O's used their off-days to skip a rotation spot numberous times.   We went through the rotation 8 times before Tillman's return, but used a fifth starter only 4 times (going 2-2).   And then after Hellickson arrived, we were on a six-man rotation at times, and Tillman was out of the rotation at other times.    

The record was 8 wins 11 losses in STARTS for 2017

The record was 22 wins 8 losses in STARTS for 2016

4 of the team losses was when he pitched in relief.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, thezeroes said:

The record was 8 wins 11 losses in STARTS for 2017

The record was 22 wins 8 losses in STARTS for 2016

4 of the team losses was when he pitched in relief.

Thanks for that correction.  

And also, a pitcher's record is affected by things outside his control.   The O's were 14-16 when Gausman started last year, 16-17 this year even though his ERA is over a run higher.   As well as Tillman pitched last year, the team's 22-8 record in his starts was a bit lucky on his part.   The team won games when he allowed 6 ER in 5.1 innings, 5 ER in 4 innings, 4 runs in 4.1 innings and 4 runs in 4 innings.

[spiritof66]

Of course, Tillman's won-lost record, or the team's won-lost record in games he started, may or may not accurately reflect how well he pitched  may or may not . There are other variables: strength of the opponents' offense and the opposing pitcher, offensive support, the fielding behind him, how the bullpen pitched in relief of him, probably more I can't think of.

No argument that the effect of Tillman's drop-off was significant. And it had three components: we missed him when he was on the DL because the replacements for him were bad, when he came back he was (I'm pretty sure) even worse than the replacements, and both his absence and his poor performance helped drain the bullpen. 

So Tillman's failure to duplicate his 2016 performance certainly had a  big effect. But you'd have to do a lot more work to estimate the effect in a meaningful way. Too complicated for me.   

[thezeroes]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for that correction.  

And also, a pitcher's record is affected by things outside his control.   The O's were 14-16 when Gausman started last year, 16-17 this year even though his ERA is over a run higher.   As well as Tillman pitched last year, the team's 22-8 record in his starts was a bit lucky on his part.   The team won games when he allowed 6 ER in 5.1 innings, 5 ER in 4 innings, 4 runs in 4.1 innings and 4 runs in 4 innings.

Run support was a wash from 2016 ( 4.37 per game) and 2017 (4.39 per game)

Bequeathed runners also took a hit in 2017 over 2016.

In 2016 he had 21 Bequeathed runners with only 3 scoring

In 2017 he had 18 Bequeathed runners with 8 scoring

[ArtVanDelay]

No.  Just no.  Tillman is not single handedly responsible for a “15 game drop”.  That is absurd.  Pitcher wins and losses mean nothing.  He was worth 2.4 fWAR last year and -0.9 this year.  That’s a 3.3 game drop. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

No.  Just no.  Tillman is not single handedly responsible for a “15 game drop”.  That is absurd.  Pitcher wins and losses mean nothing.  He was worth 2.4 fWAR last year and -0.9 this year.  That’s a 3.3 game drop. 

Oh, I disagree with this entirely.   WAR does not and never will reflect how a pitchers' performance affected actual wins. Especially fWAR, which is pegged more to FIP than to actual results.   If you honestly think that the difference between this year's Tillman and last year's was three wins, you didn't watch the games.

WAR is a good construct for judging the relative worth of players, but it doesn't reflect the impact on wins and losses in the real world.    Among other things, it doesn't consider leverage at all.   

[wildcard]

51 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Of course, Tillman's won-lost record, or the team's won-lost record in games he started, may or may not accurately reflect how well he pitched  may or may not . There are other variables: strength of the opponents' offense and the opposing pitcher, offensive support, the fielding behind him, how the bullpen pitched in relief of him, probably more I can't think of.

No argument that the effect of Tillman's drop-off was significant. And it had three components: we missed him when he was on the DL because the replacements for him were bad, when he came back he was (I'm pretty sure) even worse than the replacements, and both his absence and his poor performance helped drain the bullpen. 

So Tillman's failure to duplicate his 2016 performance certainly had a  big effect. But you'd have to do a lot more work to estimate the effect in a meaningful way. Too complicated for me.   

That is why the title says may be in the playoffs.

[ArtVanDelay]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I disagree with this entirely.   WAR does not and never will reflect how a pitchers' performance affected actual wins. Especially fWAR, which is pegged more to FIP than to actual results.   If you honestly think that the difference between this year's Tillman and last year's was three wins, you didn't watch the games.

WAR is a good construct for judging the relative worth of players, but it doesn't reflect the impact on wins and losses in the real world.    Among other things, it doesn't consider leverage at all.   

I’m not saying it was exactly a drop of 3.3 games.  That wouldn’t make any sense.  Maybe it’s a 4 or 5 game difference.  It sure as hell isnt 15.  It’s much closer to reality than simply subracting this year’s win total from last year’s.  That’s idiotic. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I’m not saying it was exactly a drop of 3.3 games.  That wouldn’t make any sense.  Maybe it’s a 4 or 5 game difference.  It sure as hell isnt 15. 

I agree it's not 15.     FWIW, the difference in Win Probability Added between 2016 and 2017 was about 5 wins.   I'd add a little to that for the impact of starting 11 fewer games and increasing the stress on the bullpen by pitching so many short starts.