Projected contracts for FA starters

[Finisher]

What a garbage list. So Cobb and Miggy are making the same per year? LMAO. Double most of those figures.

[TradeAngelos]

This dude tries to tout this garbage "system" to figure out contracts as gospel itself, but in reality it is never anything remotely close to what the market values are. As we can clearly see. Good ol MLBtraderumors and their archaic system of common sense work just fine most of the time. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Free agent contracts are always bigger than I think they will be.  I would be willing to bet that Arrieta and Darvish both get $100 mill contracts.  Cobb might get one too.  If these contract values are accurate, the O's should sign 2 of Darvish, Cobb & Arrieta.  The actual scarcity of good starting pitching always drives contract amounts into the stratosphere.

[Tryptamine]

Arrieta's proposed contract value is only about 100M less than he's going to get. This is an exceptionally poor list.

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Free agent contracts are always bigger than I think they will be.  I would be willing to bet that Arrieta and Darvish both get $100 mill contracts.  Cobb might get one too.  If these contract values are accurate, the O's should sign 2 of Darvish, Cobb & Arrieta.  The actual scarcity of good starting pitching always drives contract amounts into the stratosphere.

Cobb's price is going to be limited due to a mediocre season relative to his career numbers....and off his first full season coming off a major surgery. He'll get less than Arrieta and Darvish for sure.

That said, I think the O's should go hard after Cobb. He'll be 30 and can probably be had for a $13-$15 AAV and a 4 year deal.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Cobb's price is going to be limited due to a mediocre season relative to his career numbers....and off his first full season coming off a major surgery. He'll get less than Arrieta and Darvish for sure.

That said, I think the O's should go hard after Cobb. He'll be 30 and can probably be had for a $13-$15 AAV and a 4 year deal.

I'm pinning my hopes on the O's signing Cobb.  Of course as an O's fan, I'm used to having my hopes dashed.  If the O's were willing to give Ubaldo 4 yrs/$50 mill, there's no reason they shouldn't give Cobb a slightly bigger deal. 

I think the highest rated pitchers the O's will be after are Cobb, Garcia, and Vargas. 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

If we can sign Lynn to a 2 year deal I'm all in. Realistically though he'll get at least 4 years which will rule him out for us. 

I think the O's will go after Cashner hard and fail. That will be their big move. Then they'll try to patch work a staff together after with whoever's left in the "poor" category. 

 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

9 hours ago, Finisher said:

What a garbage list. So Cobb and Miggy are making the same per year? LMAO. Double most of those figures.

Agreed. This list isn't even a good "best guess" for discussion purposes. Most of the salaries / contract lengths are wildly unrealistic. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Those prices are unrealistically low, but anyway, I would like Cobb and Lynn, at least. Maybe Tillman as well.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

They're wildly unrealistic.  

Agreed, if these are the numbers they will be getting sign the Orioles up for four. lol

[bpilktree]

I am not sure why Lynn is getting less then Gonzo.  Lynn is younger and has been better then him over the last 4 or 5 years. 

[jsbearr]

Just so you can look at these numbers and wonder.  Again, strongest correlation are for those within the taken data set and the model does not consider injury status.  Anyway, if you have issues with any of these model outcomes, I am pretty easy to engage.  I do not always click back to boards to see what questions people have.

2017 pitchers

Brett Anderson 3.5 MM vs. x4.8 MM

Cashner 10 MM vs. x9.5 MM

Hellickson 17.2 MM vs. x14.6 MM

Hill 16 MM vs. x15.5 MM

Nova 8.7 MM vs. x 10.2 MM

Volquez 11 MM vs x 10.5 MM

2016

Anderson 15.8 MM vs. x 10.9 MM

Chen 16 MM vs. x 16 MM

Estrada 13 MM vs. x 13.3 MM

Grienke 34 MM vs. x 28.6 MM

Iwakuma 12 MM vs x 13 MM

Kennedy 14 MM vs x 11.8 MM

Lackey 16 MM vs. x 17.4 MM

Zimmermann 21 MM vs. x 17.5 MM

Kazmir 16 MM vs.x  14.1 MM

Fister 7 MM vs. x 6.4 MM

Leake 16 MM vs. x 14.6 MM

Happ 12 MM vs. x 13.6 MM

[Ohfan67]

At those prices, I would sign Arrieta, Darvish, and Cobb and call it an offseason.