Offseason Trade Ideas thread

[wildbillhiccup]

I'm really warming up to the idea of targeting Duffy. 

 

I don't think the Royals will have any interest in Trumbo though. They already have him in Brandon Moss. I think it will take prospects to land Duffy (or bullpen arms), and I think I'm ok with that. 

 

That said, trading Duffy would REALLY leave KC's rotation thin. Arguable even thinner than our rotation. I know they're rebuilding to an extent, but they still need to field a team in 2018.

 

[theobird]

Danny Duffy will cost a lot. A whole lot. Not happening in my opinion.

[ArtVanDelay]

8 minutes ago, theobird said:

Danny Duffy will cost a lot. A whole lot. Not happening in my opinion.

I agree.  People are way underrating him.  He’s good.  KC isn’t trading him for “bullpen arms”. 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I agree.  People are way underrating him.  He’s good.  KC isn’t trading him for “bullpen arms”. 

thats how it works right, discount their guys, and over pay for ours in return!

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm really warming up to the idea of targeting Duffy. 

 

I don't think the Royals will have any interest in Trumbo though. They already have him in Brandon Moss. I think it will take prospects to land Duffy (or bullpen arms), and I think I'm ok with that. 

 

That said, trading Duffy would REALLY leave KC's rotation thin. Arguable even thinner than our rotation. I know they're rebuilding to an extent, but they still need to field a team in 2018.

 

Would you do Hunter Harvey for Duffy?

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Would you do Hunter Harvey for Duffy?

KC certainly would not. They're not going to gamble away a very good mlb pitcher on a kid who hasn't been healthy for a decent stretch in years. If you want Duffy you're likely looking at Mountcastle or Hayes as your main piece, and then adding 2 of Hall,Scott,Mullins,Reyes,Sedlock.

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would you do Hunter Harvey for Duffy?

If they plan on trying to keep Manny I think I probably would. If not, then it probably doesn't make sense. 

[ArtVanDelay]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

KC certainly would not. They're not going to gamble away a very good mlb pitcher on a kid who hasn't been healthy for a decent stretch in years. If you want Duffy you're likely looking at Mountcastle or Hayes as your main piece, and then adding 2 of Hall,Scott,Mullins,Reyes,Sedlock.

Thank you for being realistic. 

[Luke-OH]

35 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

KC certainly would not. They're not going to gamble away a very good mlb pitcher on a kid who hasn't been healthy for a decent stretch in years. If you want Duffy you're likely looking at Mountcastle or Hayes as your main piece, and then adding 2 of Hall,Scott,Mullins,Reyes,Sedlock.

How much surplus value do you think Duffy has?  He’s making 15m per year, I’d put it at something like 20 million in surplus value.

Mountcastle is worth that by himself, Hays alone would be an overpay.  A prospect of Hays’ caliber is worth on average 38 million in surplus value (grade 55 overall).

Mountcastle and a lottery ticket for Duffy would be fair.  

Edit: If you have him valued much higher than 20 million in surplus value then that type of return makes sense. I see him as a 2.5ish WAR guy on average the next 4 years.  If you think he’s a 3.5 WAR player then that would require Hays +1 or Mountcastle +2 like you stared.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

How much surplus value do you think Duffy has?  He’s making 15m per year, I’d put it at something like 20 million in surplus value.

Mountcastle is worth that by himself, Hays alone would be an overpay.  A prospect of Hays’ caliber is worth on average 38 million in surplus value (grade 55 overall).

Mountcastle and a lottery ticket for Duffy would be fair.  

Edit: If you have him valued much higher than 20 million in surplus value then that type of return makes sense. I see him as a 2.5ish WAR guy on average the next 4 years.  If you think he’s a 3.5 WAR player then that would require Hays +1 or Mountcastle +2 like you stared.

I am not convinced that projected surplus value is a good guide for what returns in the real world will be.

[ArtVanDelay]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I am not convinced that projected surplus value is a good guide for what returns in the real world will be.

I agree.  Someone would top Mountcastle + a lottery ticket. 

[Luke-OH]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I am not convinced that projected surplus value is a good guide for what returns in the real world will be.

Other than the Verlander trade, I feel like teams were pretty close to placing this type of value on prospects.  Offseason trades are more favorable to the team acquiring established talent than deadline deals as well it seems.

Admittedly I haven’t run the numbers on any of this, and don’t have time to do a deep dive into prospect valuations anytime soon. Anyone who wants to figure out the numbers and prove my gut feeling wrong is welcome to do that. 

[Tx Oriole]

5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm really warming up to the idea of targeting Duffy. 

 

I don't think the Royals will have any interest in Trumbo though. They already have him in Brandon Moss. I think it will take prospects to land Duffy (or bullpen arms), and I think I'm ok with that. 

 

That said, trading Duffy would REALLY leave KC's rotation thin. Arguable even thinner than our rotation. I know they're rebuilding to an extent, but they still need to field a team in 2018.

 

It depends on who the prospects are. Who would the O's have to give up? I am afraid DD giving up top prospects for another Ubaldo.

 

 

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

KC certainly would not. They're not going to gamble away a very good mlb pitcher on a kid who hasn't been healthy for a decent stretch in years. If you want Duffy you're likely looking at Mountcastle or Hayes as your main piece, and then adding 2 of Hall,Scott,Mullins,Reyes,Sedlock.

If that's what it would cost then a big time no! And that's what I am afraid of. DD doing something stupid.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

It depends on who the prospects are. Who would the O's have to give up? I am afraid DD giving up top prospects for another Ubaldo.

 

 

Duffy wouldn’t be another Ubaldo but I do think for those prospects the Orioles could get someone as good but cheaper.