If the O's were to sign one (and only one) of these 3 deals, which would you prefer?

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

I can't even bear the thought of Miley. Tillman has been good. There's hope. MGon has been good. There's hope. Miley has never been good. 

Tillman’s career high in fWAR is 2.4.  Gonzo’s is 2.6.  Miley has had a 4.1 WAR season and a 2.6 WAR season. 

[Sanfran327]

Tillman all day. Zero risk, and I think there's still high reward. No way he just fell off a cliff without an injury. There's always the chance that this injury is of the career-ending variety, but I think that's TBD. At $2M, you can cut him any time and move on if you must. 

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

I can't even bear the thought of Miley. Tillman has been good. There's hope. MGon has been good. There's hope. Miley has never been good. 

I'd prefer Tillman of all those deals. I think he will be back for a deal like $4mill. Buck likes his guys. And he likes comebacks stories.

It's basically whoever works out with Brady this offseason. If Tillman works out with Brady this offseason, you have your answer. 

Tillman is 4 years younger has the same career WAR, and has 2 4+ WAR seasons under his belt,. Miggy has been gone once for 3.1 WAR, 5 years ago.

They both had terrible seasons last year, but of the three listed, the other 2 doesn't make sense, but what do I know.

[LookitsPuck]

This is tough for me. Clearly Tillman isn't healthy. His velocity was down. His walk rate was the highest its been his entire career (4.9 vs. 3.4). Hit rate up. Homer rate nearly double his career norms. It was a mess across the board.

But he's only 29. He'll be 30 at the start of the season next year.

Wade Miley was a disaster with the control this season. We saw a spike in his strikeout rate, but everything else was poor. FIP, WHIP,  walk rate...just bad. I don't know what it is about him. It's inexplicable how bad he was. He'll be 31 at the end of the year.

And then there's Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzo is a back of the rotation guy at best. He'll be 34 at the start of next season. I really liked him as a stash and get healthy kind of guy in 2016 before Duquette blundered yet again and cut him. But I'm not sure how good I feel about him going into 2018.

If you could guarantee me Tillman was healthy in 2018? I'd take him over both of them immediately. If not? He'd be my last choice.

Then it's a coin flip between Gonzo and Miley. Probably Gonzo because you can reasonably expect a 4.25 - 4.75 ERA and an ERA+ of around 95-100. I think Miley's basement is much worse because he's just an erratic mess. That and I really never liked watching him pitch. 

Give me Gonzo.

 

[tntoriole]

Unless Tillman passes the famed Orioles physical exam with flying colors, I am not signing him to anything. 

If he does, then I go with the 2 million for him. 

 

Miguel would be my next choice.   If he signs Miley, then I definitely wish Duqette had gone to Toronto. 

[Roll Tide]

On 10/22/2017 at 6:24 PM, mdbdotcom said:

Just for the fun (or agony) of it, imagine that the O's were going to make one, but only one, of these signings:

• Chris Tillman for 1/$2 million plus incentives
• Miguel Gonzalez for 1/$6 million
• Wake Miley for 1/$4 million plus incentives

Which, if any, would you prefer that they do?

Note: telling us what they will "actually" do does not qualify as answering the question.:)

 

Tillman .....best chance to have an MLB caliber season.

[esmd]

Based on last seasons results, how could anyone not go with Gonzo?

[weams]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

Based on last seasons results, how could anyone not go with Gonzo?

Money. Always the issue with him. I am uncertain that he is worth the 2 million.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, esmd said:

Based on last seasons results, how could anyone not go with Gonzo?

Because we’re considering more than last year’s results.   

[Drifter]

Tillman has more upside.

Miley? Deja Vu!

Gonzo back in this division? No thank you. 

[esmd]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Because we’re considering more than last year’s results.   

Fair enough, I just don't have any faith in Tillman or Miley being any better than they were last season.

[TouchemAll]

On 10/22/2017 at 6:45 PM, weams said:

The cheaper the better for these marginal pitchers. Tillman @ 2 

As much as I really don't want Tillman back I agree the cheaper the better.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Tillman...good  chance he bounces back providing he gets a clean bill of health.

I think everybody would choose Tillman if he was healthy, but he's not.  This is gambling.  Losers get a AAA merry-go-round as fifth starter and either $2, 4 or 6 million less to spend on FA starting pitching which will be an unavoidable need for 2018.

I believe that Tillman's injury is potentially severe enough to not risk the roster spot or the money - especially the roster spot and the expectations that inevitably come with it.  I'm really surprised at how many people would risk anything at all on Chris.  He just isn't right.  Earlier I picked MIley because he's left handed and healthy, not because he's a great pitcher.  He isn't, but I think there's more likelihood he improves to career norms in 2018 than Tillman does.

Price Gonzo at $4 million or less and that's when things become clear for me.  Welcome back Miguel!