OK, time to grade the offseason moves

[El Gordo]

I think BOS and MFY are very good and likely to finish #1 and #2. But they are not juggernauts. Some of their pitching is suspect as well: Tanaka, Montgomey, CC, Price,, Pomeranz, and EdRod. Will Judge have a sophomore slump. Will Stanton avoid injury. BOS has a great OF, but how good is this kid Devers, Pedroia is getting old and oft injured and Hanley ain't what he was. I dn't think we need to role over and play dead.

[Babypowder]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At least Cashner's strikeout rate freefall was plausibly because of a conscious decision, as opposed to a shoulder held together with construction cement and a C clamp.

The same argument was made for Gallardos peripheral drop though too. By Gallardo himself, and several publications. We will see.

[25 Nuggets]

Once it became clear that Machado was not going to be traded... The Orioles did about the best they could do.  They're going for it and they got the starting pitchers they need to do so.  So, I voted option A.

Don't sleep on the Rasmus signing.  The next highest priority for the team after starting pitching was a left handed right fielder.  There were a number of options (Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Jon Jay).  The Orioles got a guy with the capability of putting up just as many wins as the others, and they only needed a small contract to get him.

Valencia and Alvarez together will frankly outproduce Trumbo by himself at DH, in my opinion.

The rest just comes down to the continued development of the youngsters.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Babypowder said:

The same argument was made for Gallardos peripheral drop though too. By Gallardo himself, and several publications. We will see.

Except for that unusual step of him and his agent agreeing to renegotiate his contract because the MRI looked like Dresden circa 1945.

[canonfaz]

34 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I don't get this thinking. If you are trading Manny then you are rebuilding and it makes no sense to sign Cobb Cashner. If you aren't, then you are going for it and it does make sense.

To clarify... I would have preferred to trade Manny (and all our other pending FAs), but since we didn't go down that route, signing Cobb (and Cashner) is a decent attempt at going for it (for us anyway).

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, 25 Nuggets said:

Valencia and Alvarez together will frankly outproduce Trumbo by himself at DH, in my opinion.

But will they have the opportunity?  JR House and Jon Knott could have out-produced Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton at a 10th the cost, but we know who got the at bats.

[Babypowder]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Except for that unusual step of him and his agent agreeing to renegotiate his contract because the MRI looked like Dresden circa 1945.

Fair

[Babypowder]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But will they have the opportunity?  JR House and Jon Knott could have out-produced Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton at a 10th the cost, but we know who got the at bats.

We saw who got them last year. Hopefully that just means the leash is shorter this year. I still have a hard time seeing them swallow the rest of his deal.

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I concur with the most part, but then I start thinking that Alex Cobb can't be the difference between an F and a B.  I get that there's a pretty large difference between whomever the 5th starter was going to be and Cobb.  But an F means fail.  Like, the team went significantly backwards in the offseason.  They got a bit better without Cobb, but what does that mean in the context of a 75-win team?  What does a single starting pitcher mean to a team that's likely 20+ wins behind the Yanks?

Darn you, making me think this through.

I think of it this way. They were taking a ten question exam. Questions 1 and 2 were each worth 40 points. The remaining eight questions were worth a total of 20 points. They had done a decent job answering all but question  1, but had only racked up 45 of the possible 60 points.Without answering question 1, sounds like an F to me. With a good answer to question 1, sounds like a B to me.

[El Gordo]

1 minute ago, canonfaz said:

To clarify... I would have preferred to trade Manny (and all our other pending FAs), but since we didn't go down that route, signing Cobb (and Cashner) is a decent attempt at going for it (for us anyway).

If we were going to trade these assets we needed to do it a year ago . When Britton had top value and Manny had two years left. Right now only Manny has any real value and not as much as before. How many people were calling for us to blow it up in winter 2016?

[25 Nuggets]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But will they have the opportunity?  JR House and Jon Knott could have out-produced Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton at a 10th the cost, but we know who got the at bats.

They'll have the opportunity at the start of the season at least.  When Trumbo comes back it'll be interesting to see what they do.

[Tbone83]

I guess I will go B, leaning B minus.

They got one good and one OK starter. The starting staff should be better, though that isn't saying much. 

There are so many "ifs" I don't know what to expect this year. Will we get good or bad Davis? Trumbo? Gausman? Bundy? Can AJ maintain despite age? Will Manny have a better first half? Can Mancini and Beckham repeat what they did last year? Will any of the young farm guys make a major league impact? Can the bullpen be ok without their closer? 

I know there are questions every year, but I feel like practically the entire team could go either way this year, individually and as a whole. 

 

[El Gordo]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But will they have the opportunity?  JR House and Jon Knott could have out-produced Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton at a 10th the cost, but we know who got the at bats.

Didn't we have a different manager back then?

[SteveA]

34 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know.  Not many?  But that doesn't change my opinion that one pretty good pitcher can't turn a total failure of an offseason to an above average one.  Either the F or the B can't be right if both of those grades hinge on Alex Cobb.

But can that pitcher have a ripple effect on the team that is bigger than just his WAR?

Plugging him in the rotation moves everyone else down a spot, so it improves you at the lower spots in the rotation too.

And improving all those rotation spots can mean fewer innings pitched by the bullpen early in the season which can pay off with better results all year for relievers who aren't overworked, fewer innings pitched by the worst relievers, etc.

I think the effect of signing a good starting pitcher can be greater than just the significant improvement he gives you at one of the 25 roster spots.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, El Gordo said:

Didn't we have a different manager back then?

But we have the same rules of thumb.  Do you think Buck benches or releases Trumbo to install a platoon of Alvarez and Valencia if Trumbo isn't just tragically awful?  He'll get 250 PAs almost no matter what he does.