Why do I feel crazy for actually believing the O's can win the East?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

It's how I knew Nolan was done. Francoeur never had Davis' stuff. 

He K'd 6.1/9 in AAA as a 30 year old.  3.68 ERA in the PCL.

[maybenxtyr]

I would feel a lot better about their chances if they had a 5th starter.

[Il BuonO]

21 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I would feel a lot better about their chances if they had a 5th starter.

They do, Tillman.

[maybenxtyr]

15 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

They do, Tillman.

Ok. I'm not an expert by any means, but he seems as though he is done. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, O's84 said:

Who is Frenchie?

Jeff Franceour

[Enjoy Terror]

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Ok. I'm not an expert by any means, but he seems as though he is done. 

Miguel Gonzalez looked done when we cut him too.

[Bonecrusher52]

13 hours ago, O's84 said:

Who is Frenchie?

He's the guy who tells you there's guys you can hit and guys you can't. 

[maybenxtyr]

9 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Miguel Gonzalez looked done when we cut him too.

I agree. I hope I'm wrong about Tillman. He was instrumental in the O's rise from the ashes.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Miguel Gonzalez looked done when we cut him too.

Not a good analogy IMO.    In the season before he was cut, Gonzalez had a 4.91 ERA.   Not good, but not unspeakably bad.   The O’s also had the ability to option Gonzalez to the minors if he wasn’t pitching well.    Cutting him was a very poor decision IMO.

Tillman, on the other hand, was unspeakably bad last year (7.84 ERA), and the O’s don’t have the option of parking him in the minors.    His leash has to be very short — 3 to 5 starts, IMO.     Hopefully he shows he can still pitch.   

[DrungoHazewood]

20 hours ago, Nite said:

You're saying Cobb can't single handedly be 10 games better than Ubaldo? 

The Orioles were 12-13 in games Ubaldo started last year.  I doubt that they'll be 22-3 in games that Cobb starts.

They were 15-17 in Wade Miley's starts. The Rays were 15-14 when Cobb started.

Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense.  Defense is about 70/30 split between pitching and fielding.  Starters cover about 60% of innings, so they're (in rough terms) 60% of 70% of 50%.  It's a team game.

[DrungoHazewood]

To win 90 games a team has to outscore the opposition by ~75 runs.  At least without some bullpen magic or other weirdness.  Last year they were underwater by about 100.  They need to be about +175, give or take, to really contend.  That's a pretty steep order. 

Biggest year-to-year improvements in run differential in modern Oriole history:

1989, 261
1969, 180
1992, 159
2012, 159
1979, 149
1960, 146
1957, 143

And the biggest drops:
1981, -173
2000, -155
1974, -146
1984, -133
1962, -131
2017, -127

(Also of note, the 1894 Orioles outscored their opponents by 352 runs.  The '93 team that finished 8th in the NL was outscored by 73.  So in one season they improved their run differential by 425 runs.)

[TouchemAll]

I would like to think that's possible but at least we should be WC contenders if the rotation can stay healthy, and Davis and Trumbo have to improve.

[Il BuonO]

17 minutes ago, TouchemAll said:

I would like to think that's possible but at least we should be WC contenders if the rotation can stay healthy, and Davis and Trumbo have to improve.

The last two are big IFS.

[nadecir]

Nate Silver and 538.com forecast the Orioles at 72 wins in 2018, and a last-place finish in the AL East.   They give the Orioles a 9% percent chance of making the playoffs
=====
Rebuild alert: Baltimore Orioles. Going into the spring, O’s GM Dan Duquette scoffed at the notion of rebuilding. But he may have no choice with Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Zach Britton all up for free agency after the season. If the Orioles falter early — and our projections don’t see much hope for them this year — Baltimore could be due for a fire sale.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/your-guide-to-the-2018-american-league/

[Il BuonO]

1 minute ago, nadecir said:

Nate Silver and 538.com forecast the Orioles at 72 wins in 2018, and a last-place finish in the AL East.   They give the Orioles a 9% percent chance of making the playoffs
=====
Rebuild alert: Baltimore Orioles. Going into the spring, O’s GM Dan Duquette scoffed at the notion of rebuilding. But he may have no choice with Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Zach Britton all up for free agency after the season. If the Orioles falter early — and our projections don’t see much hope for them this year — Baltimore could be due for a fire sale.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/your-guide-to-the-2018-american-league/

I think Nate Silver is a hack, but I agree with his conclusion. At least, there should be a fire sale if they’re out early.