Here's the Top 100 prospects in Baseball. Who could we land at the deadline without giving up Bundy or Trey?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd agree.  But the Orioles probably want to hold on to Cisco, too. We should add him to the list of relative untouchables.  

The Orioles pissed all over themselves by not trading any of their players at near peak level.  So when they come to any negotiating table with any other team, there's no position of strength to start negotiating from.  

Any other GM will look at the Orioles situation and probably say something like "Well, I'll consider Trumbo if you eat 75% of the salary and you can have two of my prospects outside of my top 20 list because...well, I'd be doing you a favor and hoping that Trumbo could use a change of scenery and our hitting instructors might be able to get him back to a .260 .320 guy with some power, but that's a gamble on our end."

 

Sure did.  It was remarked upon at the time.

[paulcoates]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because he's not the defender that he once was.  He hasn't had an OPS over .800 since 2013.  

Don't get me wrong, I love Jones but he's not exactly on the upswing of his career.  I think if we were to deal him we would get some middling prospects back but not anyone we could view as core guys.  Certainly guys on the lower end of the 100 list and probably more likely outside of the 100 list.

Remember, the Orioles aren't the only game in town, either.  We act like we're the only fans that would like to trade some of our players.  Is Jones going to be the only outfielder on the block come the deadline?  Probably not.  Are there players that'll be on the block that are younger, better and have more upside?  Remains to be seen.  

I agree here.  I think he could net you a guy on the bottom of that list.  Nowhere near the top

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, paulcoates said:

So you are expecting Jones to OPS .600 all year?  I am not.  

 

7 consecutive years of 25 homeruns and has always had a positive WAR.  Yep, I think he has value.

He's half a win under right now. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, paulcoates said:

I agree here.  I think he could net you a guy on the bottom of that list.  Nowhere near the top

I think that if you could convince him to waive his trade protection you could get a guy in a team's 11-20 range and a warm body.  Maybe a #8 guy in a weaker system.

[paulcoates]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He's half a win under right now. 

It's too early in the season to evaluate this kind of stat. When teams trade for players at the deadline, teams are often looking for veteran bats.  He fits the mold.  Again, I am not saying we are getting a top 50 player for him.  I would suspect more like a guy around the #80 mark, tops

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, paulcoates said:

It's too early in the season to evaluate this kind of stat. When teams trade for players at the deadline, teams are often looking for veteran bats.  He fits the mold.  Again, I am not saying we are getting a top 50 player for him.  I would suspect more like a guy around the #80 mark, tops

Sure is.  But half a win under in April does dive an idea of how poor he has been.  And you are the one that pointed to WAR to support your argument. 

[paulcoates]

I was more referring to the previous years, but I get your point.  It's too early to point to how bad a guy is doing now and extrapolate that that is who he will be this year is my point.

[vab]

Any non-SP who can bring back a young SP with potential should be dealt. No exceptions. You must build the foundation first and the foundation is starting pitching.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, paulcoates said:

I was more referring to the previous years, but I get your point.  It's too early to point to how bad a guy is doing now and extrapolate that that is who he will be this year is my point.

Sure, and I didn't say that I thought he would be a -5 win player over the season.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, amdcpus said:

Wait, you think he has value? Hahahahahaha that's hilaroius. An aging player who is terrible at the plate with no plate discipline, abysmal speed, a terrible outfielder, and whose contract is expiring has trade value?

Assuming Jones has something close to his typical numbers at the deadline, he’ll definitely have some trade value.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Assuming Jones has something close to his typical numbers at the deadline, he’ll definitely have some trade value.    

How good is he going to have to be to get up to his typical numbers?

*That was a rhetorical question, I'm not asking you to do the math.*

[Three Run Homer]

30 minutes ago, vab said:

Any non-SP who can bring back a young SP with potential should be dealt. No exceptions. You must build the foundation first and the foundation is starting pitching.

I feel like infield may be an even bigger need than starting pitching for this franchise.   The O's have no heir apparent for SS or 3B next season.  

[eddie83]

It would be nice if Britton throws well when he comes back. Perhaps the Orioles get lucky and they can package two players. 

At this point I would be happy if they can get a nice infield prospect for Manny.  

 

[Camden_yardbird]

Those who think Jones doesn't have trade value are fooling themselves.  There are a lot of teams who would love to have his power, defense and leadership.  He might not get a top 100 but he can get back useful prospects.

[Just Regular]

Here are the OF's of the teams above 40% Playoff Odds per Fangraphs this morning, and notes on where Jones might fit.

Red Sox 96% - no room

Yankees 83% - no room

Blue Jays 46% - maybe, but that would be weird

Indians 94% - in my mind they really are the perfect fit for both Machado and Jones.  Half the team would have to switch positions, but that's because both their OF corners are pretty meh, unless Michael Brantley somehow holds up.  Last ride for Miller and Allen.  Francisco Mejia probably a bridge too far, but Yandy Diaz, Nolan Jones, Shane Bieber, broken Triston McKenzie, Bobby Bradley are perhaps attainable types who could become really useful.

Astros 97% - no room

Angels  43% - no room

Nationals 79% - no room

Mets 62% - no room

Cubs 88% - never thought of them before, but Happ's struggling and not really a CF - maybe this is one place he can stay in CF.  Heyward covers lots of ground.  If our 2018 is indeed lost, I would love this parachute for AJ.  He doesn't have many years left of being a starter a championship contender would want, but I think he's still better than Albert Almora today.

Cardinals 66% - no room

Dodgers 88% - another maybe.  They'll want Britton too if he looks good, as will everyone.  As we have a lot of reasonable depth coming, strategically I'll be wanting to bundle our sub-Machado pieces for one better centerpiece.  Britton/Jones together maybe about as useful as Yu Darvish and Alex Verdugo maybe about as good as Willie Calhoun?

Diamondbacks 41% - no room once Souza's back, but that's a unit without much depth and the starters are old, fragile or both.

Obviously the 10/5 waiver necessary, but if I put myself in Jones's shoes, being an Indian or Cub this fall is probably the kind of thing you'd waive that for.  Cubs farm system now among worst though, so:

ZB/AJ for Verdugo, Machado for Diaz/McKenzie (Tommy John anytime now) and 2019 like

LF Verdugo, 3B Diaz, 1B Mancini, 2B Schoop, C Sisco, RF Hays, SS Beckham, CF Mullins, DH $$$$$

Enjoy Britton pitching to Manny in World Series games.  Still be ready to offer Manny $375MM to make Beckham Melvin Mora.