And why are the Orioles losing?

[weams]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2771769-padres-144m-eric-hosmer-risk-backfiring-giving-credibility-to-mlb-tanking?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

 

[FuManchu]

9 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

Thanks, I can buy those explanations. I noticed that they admit that humidity can slow the ball after all, by making the ball heavier. Does anyone have statistics of HRs hit by month?

	2018	2017	2016	2015
April/March	1.07	1.17	1.05	0.91
May		1.26	1.14	0.99
June		1.35	1.24	0.95
July		1.24	1.13	0.98
August		1.32	1.24	1.10
Sept/Oct		1.19	1.12	1.10

[Orioles0615]

15 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

With each loss and as every day ticks away with no FO/ownership reaction, I start to feel this club is quietly being shopped.

I think everyone in the organization is just incompetent 

[bpilktree]

On Tuesday, April 24, 2018 at 12:27 PM, Matt Bennett said:

In short, because the Orioles aren't particularly good at producing runs or preventing runs.

One reason: Good teams finish their off-season finding depth. Duquette finishes our off-season by filling out the actual rotation/line-up.

When a Redsox infielder gets hurt, they have Eduardo Nunez to fill in. We have Luis Sardinas. When an Astros SP gets hurt, they have Collin McHugh to fill in. We have Mike Wright. When a Yankees outfielder gets hurt, they have Aaron Hicks to fill in. We have a Rule V OF who hasn't played above A+ ball.

The Red Sox have an extra 100 million to spend.  It is not that hard to add better depth when you have 100 million in your pocket.  The Astros were horrible for a a stretch and kept getting young talent through draft and trades.  The Yanks have much more extra money to spend on players as well as lots more resources in the international market.  When you are a mid market team and have a team concept to not sign the big prospects in international signings it put you at a huge disadvantage.  It is very hard to almost impossible to be a mid market team and stay competitive in baseball and even harder when you can't spend in the international market.  I think they have done a good job keeping the team competitive for 5 years.  I have done numerous posts on this and the small to mid markets have usually a 3-4 year window.  We were able to have a 5-6 year window. 

[Going Underground]

From Rich Dubroff: Oriole stat

Six of the nine positions have collective batting averages under .200: (C: .184, 1B: .167, 2B .176,.3B. 181, RF: .146 and DH: .157)

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, bpilktree said:

The Red Sox have an extra 100 million to spend.  It is not that hard to add better depth when you have 100 million in your pocket.  The Astros were horrible for a a stretch and kept getting young talent through draft and trades.  The Yanks have much more extra money to spend on players as well as lots more resources in the international market.  When you are a mid market team and have a team concept to not sign the big prospects in international signings it put you at a huge disadvantage.  It is very hard to almost impossible to be a mid market team and stay competitive in baseball and even harder when you can't spend in the international market.  I think they have done a good job keeping the team competitive for 5 years.  I have done numerous posts on this and the small to mid markets have usually a 3-4 year window.  We were able to have a 5-6 year window. 

I basically agree with this. A few things I would qualify, though:

1. The difference in annual revenues between the top-tier teams (NYYs, RS, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants) is far more than $100 million. I'll try to post something with some numbers in the next week.

2. The difficulty of competing against teams that take in much more revenue varies depending on what division you're in. It's easiest in the Central Divisions (where the Cubs are the only top-tier-revenue team) and the AL West (where there is no top-revenue team). It's a little harder in the NL east (where the Nats, Mets and Phillies all have revenues just below the big guys'). And, of course, the AL East puts you in the biggest competitive hole. (The competitive challenge also depends, of course, on how wisely other teams spend their revenues.) But it would take a stubborn, ignorant person not to recognize that if you're up against those teams there will be seasons when you should step back, retrench and rebuild.  

2. I think it's misleading to refer to teams' innate competitive strength by the sizes of their markets. A better way to look at the discrepancy among teams' ability to compete, IMO, is to look at their differing levels of revenue potential, based on factors they can't do much about. The size of a team's market (that is, the population of its home city's media market) is the most important element, but there are others, including the wealth and income of that market, the number and size of the corporations and service firms in the market, the opportunity to expand the fan base geographically, the appeal of the stadium, the entrenchment of the fan base (and its susceptibility to being poached by teams in the same or a nearby city), and probably half a dozen other things. Baltimore makes this point: it is a very small market for MLB, but its revenue potential -- which is based on the assumption that the team is being run well -- was once pretty high and is still probably in the middle third of MLB teams.

3. The Orioles' refusal to spend much money on international free agents -- and to use its international draft slots as a source of revenue rather than talent -- has been an almost unbelievably dumb one in terms of the health of the franchise. It has seriously impaired the talent pipeline, has made it pretty much impossible to build depth in the MiL system, and will weaken the team for years to come. But there's another side to that decision: it has permitted the Orioles to spend more on its ML payroll than other teams at the Orioles' revenue level. And it's understandable that they've chosen to do that, in a perverse way. If I were, say, an 85-year-old owner of a team, by definition giving me a limited and uncertain life expectancy, and if I had a desperate desire to get my team to a World Series, and if I were deciding between investing my money in scouting, signing and developing 16- or 17-year-old Latin American players who might help the team in five or six years, and using that money to sign proven major league talent, I might make the same call. That is, if I cared only about myself and not about the team's fans and the future of the franchise.

[SteveA]

On 4/24/2018 at 12:26 PM, Redskins Rick said:

You make sense.

But, this team was in first place at this point last year, and the weather seamed to be about the same.

Really?   I thought this was one of the coldest Aprils on record.

Not making an excuse here, just disagreeing with your premise.

[atomic]

No one wants to do well as they are afraid they will get pied in post game interview.  You could knock your eye out. 

[Matt Bennett]

7 hours ago, bpilktree said:

The Red Sox have an extra 100 million to spend.  It is not that hard to add better depth when you have 100 million in your pocket.  The Astros were horrible for a a stretch and kept getting young talent through draft and trades.  The Yanks have much more extra money to spend on players as well as lots more resources in the international market.  When you are a mid market team and have a team concept to not sign the big prospects in international signings it put you at a huge disadvantage.  It is very hard to almost impossible to be a mid market team and stay competitive in baseball and even harder when you can't spend in the international market.  I think they have done a good job keeping the team competitive for 5 years.  I have done numerous posts on this and the small to mid markets have usually a 3-4 year window.  We were able to have a 5-6 year window. 

Orioles team payroll ranked:

2015: 16th

2016: 11th

2017: 8th

2017 happened after five consecutive seasons of quality baseball. We'll never be a New York or Los Angeles but the market is there. And this is with "stingy ownership".

I tend not to believe in the "window". But Duquette has made too many mistakes for there to not be one.

What We Gave Away

Eduardo Rodriguez (Traded For Andrew Miller) 2015-2018 - 68 starts, 4.20 ERA

Zach Davies (Traded For Gerardo Parra) 2015-2018 - 71 starts, 3.96 ERA

Josh Hader (Traded For Bud Norris) 2017-2018 - 44 appearances, 1.88 ERA, 14 K/9

Steven Brault (Traded For Travis Snider) 2016-2018 - 15 starts, 4.68 ERA

Miguel Gonzalez (DFA) 2016-2017 - 50 starts, 4.21 ERA

Parker Bridwell (DFA) 2017-2018 - 21 starts, 4.04 ERA

Andrew Triggs (DFA) 2016-2018 - 22 starts, 4.48 ERA

Jake Arrieta (Traded For Scott Feldman) 2013-2018 - 128 starts, 2.73 ERA

Pedro Strop (Traded For Scott Feldman) 2013-2018 - 310 appearances, 2.73 ERA

Ariel Miranda (Traded For Wade Miley) 2016-2018 - 40 starts, 4.72 ERA

Nick Delmonico 2017-2018 - 61 games, .791 OPS

 

What We Got

Ubaldo Jimenez 2013-2016 - 104 starts, 5.22 ERA

Wade Miley 2016-2017 - 43 starts, 5.75 ERA

Yovani Gallardo 2016 - 23 starts, 5.43 ERA

Mike Wright 2015-2018 - 23 starts, 6.06 ERA

Tyler Wilson 2015-2017 - 19 starts, 5.02 ERA

Jeremy Hellickson 2017 - 10 starts, 6.97 ERA

Bud Norris 2013-2015 - 48 starts, 4.65 ERA

Scott Feldman 2013 - 15 starts, 4.27 ERA

Freddy Garcia 2013 - 10 starts, 5.77 ERA

Travis Snider 2015 - 69 games, .659 OPS

Gerardo Parra 2015 - 55 games, .625 OPS

Francisco Rodriguez 2013 - 23 appearances, 4.50 ERA

Trumbo never should have been extended

Davis never should have been extended

 

I have not a doubt in my mind the Orioles would still be competitive if half of these mistakes were not made. It's always easy to look in hindsight, but some of these trades were unjustifiable the moment they were made. Duquette has ensured there was a window and deserves to lose his job for it.

 

[George]

How dreadful is the offense? Willy Miranda would be a lineup upgrade!

[allquixotic]

We're 1 game ahead of the Reds. They have one fewer win and one more loss than us. Let that sink in. The Orioles are about to be as bad as the Reds as soon as they win a game and we lose. Which could be tomorrow.

[theobird]

it is because the baseball gods knew that the only way the Orioles would do a rebuild was to lose at an alarming rate. The attendance will suck, it is time to shell out this team. Davis contract is not shedable, you can't Get arid of a deal that stupid. The rest of the vet players should be on the block. It is time to play the kids, lose and make good draft choices. Fill the minor league system and move on.

[sportsfan8703]

We’re just a terrible team. Bad offense. Bad defense. Bad bullpen. Two SP struggling terribly. 

[Redskins Rick]

12 hours ago, SteveA said:

Really?   I thought this was one of the coldest Aprils on record.

Not making an excuse here, just disagreeing with your premise.

Just typical every Maryland April here, maybe a few more colder days than warmer days, but still, pretty much, a typical Maryland up and down weather pattern.

2016:

High: 86, Low: 24, Avg: 54

2017

High 89, Low 35, Avg: 60

2018

High 86, Low 33, Avg: 50