Fangraphs’ Edwards: O’s playoff chances are now 1000-1

[Moose Milligan]

10 to 1 odds that the Orioles completely botch this and don't trade Manny, letting him walk in the offseason and all we get back is a comp pick, but not before a half assed attempt to re-sign him.  The so called "token offer".

5 to 1 odds that orioleshangout.com server goes down as a result because everyone goes nucking futs.  Frobby actually loses his cool for once.  Firestone is apoplectic.  

[now]

45 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

10 to 1 odds that the Orioles completely botch this and don't trade Manny, letting him walk in the offseason and all we get back is a comp pick, but not before a half assed attempt to re-sign him.  The so called "token offer".

5 to 1 odds that orioleshangout.com server goes down as a result because everyone goes nucking futs.  Frobby actually loses his cool for once.  Firestone is apoplectic.  

I'd wager a bundle for a 10 to 1 payoff on that outcome. Even 1 to 1 is a fair bet.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

51 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

10 to 1 odds that the Orioles completely botch this and don't trade Manny, letting him walk in the offseason and all we get back is a comp pick, but not before a half assed attempt to re-sign him.  The so called "token offer".

5 to 1 odds that orioleshangout.com server goes down as a result because everyone goes nucking futs.  Frobby actually loses his cool for once.  Firestone is apoplectic.  

I want to say you're wrong, but until news breaks that Manny is traded this is the most likely scenario.  

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, now said:

I'd wager a bundle for a 10 to 1 payoff on that outcome. Even 1 to 1 is a fair bet.

I don't think Frobby would lose his cool.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Frobby would lose his cool.

It's been brewing for a long time.  Frobby is going to crack one of these days. 

 

(Just messing around, Frobby.  Mostly.) 

[Hank Scorpio]

Zzzzzzzzzzzz...

What are the odds now?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

So after tonight did the odds bump up to 1100-1?

[HokieOs]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

10 to 1 odds that the Orioles completely botch this and don't trade Manny, letting him walk in the offseason and all we get back is a comp pick, but not before a half assed attempt to re-sign him.  The so called "token offer".

5 to 1 odds that orioleshangout.com server goes down as a result because everyone goes nucking futs.  Frobby actually loses his cool for once.  Firestone is apoplectic.  

Seems optimistic. I fully expect that the Os management will completely screw this up and either not trade Manny or trade him for nothing (turning down a better trade in the process). Maybe we trade Manny for a couple C+ prospects and nothing more. Hopefully we pick up a few good pieces for the future.... but I'd put the odds on that at 10/1.

[Beef Supreme]

6 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

He was ticked because he took a below market, team friendly deal to stay with Orioles and help them have the cash to acquire other players. Tom Glavine was a union rep at the time and publicly called Mussina out for taking a below market deal. The Os then traded away players and cut their budget. And Sid traded for damaged and mediocrce players to top it all off.  He was seriously peeved. 

What you are saying is that Mussina was"peeved" and being peeved caused him to refuse a trade by the Orioles to any and every team. He was peeved because he took a "team-friendly " deal... a deal that made him the highest paid Oriole on the highest payroll team in MLB in 1998?
This angle is way overplayed. Mussina was getting paid well. More than Cal. He was one of the top paid pitchers in MLB, along with David Cone, Tom Glavine and Andy Benes, just behind Smoltz, Clemens, Pedro and Maddux. And if that caused him to be so peeved as to take revenge by refusing to be traded to clubs nearly as closeby to his home, it reinforces my original point.
Meanwhile, dude is lurking under a thinly-veiled moniker on here and neg repping me. He's making me dislike him even more!

[Ohfan67]

Ummm. Ok. 

[Norfolk orioles]

Doctors say we a 50/50 chance to  make the playoffs, but there's only a 10% chance of that.

 

I think our only chance to make the playoffs, let alone the World Series this year is that the players all go on strike in the next 2 weeks and we hire the best scab players on earth.

Dan would put together a great scab team, I have no doubt of that, it's the rest of the roster during a real major league season with major league players that he sucks so much at assembling.

Keep hope alive, strike you overpaid millionaires, strike!

[Luke-OH]

10 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

One of Fangraphs prospect guys got the open-ended Machado question in this afternoon's chat, and he went:

Guest

1:06

Just bought the Orioles.  Who am I trying to get for Machado from the DBacks Indians or Cards?  I need quantity, right?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

1:08

Should be asking the Dbacks for Robinson+, scouring CLE's backfields for their best J2 guy from last year and some of their superfluous upper level guys like Bradley and Chang and asking for 3 or 4 guys from STL's upper levels

 

Piggybacking on his STL upper levels - Harrison Bader or Tyler O'Neill are talented blocked OF's, Andrew Knizner and Carson Kelly are talented blocked C's, and Conner Greene, Dakota Hudson and Austin Gomber are high minors SP's who will struggle to ever unseat Martinez/Weaver/Wacha/Reyes/Flaherty

Who is Robinson from the Dbacks?

[HokieOs]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Who is Robinson from the Dbacks?

The only Robinson I see the DBacks is OF prospect Kristian Robinson. He's listed as an other C+ prospect. If a C+ guy plus a couple of C prospects are the best we can do for Machado, that would be highly disappointing.

At just a quick glance, I'd want to start with perhaps Jasrado Chisholm along with maybe Taylor Widener or Matt Tabor and one other C prospect as a throw in. But frankly, I'm just spitballing a bit here.

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, HokieOs said:

The only Robinson I see the DBacks is OF prospect Kristian Robinson. He's listed as an other C+ prospect. If a C+ guy plus a couple of C prospects are the best we can do for Machado, that would be highly disappointing.

At just a quick glance, I'd want to start with perhaps Jasrado Chisholm along with maybe Taylor Widener or Matt Tabor and one other C prospect as a throw in. But frankly, I'm just spitballing a bit here.

Thanks, I looked him up and he's a 2017 international signee (2.5 million bonus). Super raw, potential 5 tool guy, 17 years old, hasn't played affiliated ball. He might be much more than a C+, Sickels probably just threw that grade on him because he was a bonus guy he didn't know anything about. He's ranked as the #2 Diamondbacks prospect on the Fangraphs list, FV 45 (fangraphs FV rankings are some of the more conservative than BA or BP or MLBpipeline). 

The kind of guy teams like the Rays try and target in trades (they heavily scouting low minors, extended, rookie leagues, DSL, etc and try and snag guys before they make top prospect lists), I don't see the Orioles going for that type of player, just not their MO. 

 

[ThomasTomasz]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mussina had a no-trade clause and during his walk year he made it crystal clear he wouldn’t consent to be traded.   

And if our owner wasn't cheap and lowballed Mussina from the start, chances were high that he would re-sign with the Orioles.  

Our odds of retaining Machado are just about the same whether or not we trade him at the trade deadline, so I don't see a reason not to trade him barring a drastic turnaround.  Now isn't that time, but in another month you start asking around.