How do you rate the return on the Britton trade?

[Hank Scorpio]

 

14 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

But, really, that is not "prime time." Trade deadlines are "prime time." 

Also, like Roy has said elsewhere, you just don't know what you'll get when you trade for minor leaguers. There is no guarantee that the Orioles would have "rebuilt" the entire system with two deals. What is guaranteed is that the so-called "window" that extended through 2018 at that point in time, would have been slammed shut on the heels of a playoff appearance and a team that appeared poised to compete for another post-season appearance. 

When you have talented players available with 2 years of service time before free agency, any time is prime time.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re applying some 20/20 hindsight.   Surely the Red Sox were a better team than us going into 2017, having finished 4 games ahead of us in 2016 and having picked up Chris Sale in the offseason.    It was not at all obvious that the Yankees or Blue Jays would be better.    The Yankees had traded away several veterans in 2016 and it was entirely possible that they’d take a step back in 2017 while waiting for their talent to ripen.   Absolutely nobody expected Aaron Judge, a .608 OPS hitter in 2016 who struck out 42 times in 95 plate appearances, to hit 52 bombs and post a 1.049 OPS.   And Toronto figured to take a step back (and did) after losing Encarnacion and with Bautista rapidly aging.     And while I’m sure the pundits were predicting us to be a sub-.500 team, that had been true every single year from 2012-16.    Our pitching was unforeseeably awful and yet we were still in the WC race until early September, when we suddenly went ice cold at the plate and collapsed.    None of that was foreordained in the 2016-17 offseason.     And teams that just made the playoffs don’t usually trade away the best players that got them there.   

No hindsight here!

 

[Roll Tide]

The return was better than expected. They are caught in s perfect storm that has allowed us to get more than usual for our rentals. Would’ve liked to get a top 100 for Zach but I can be unhappy. 

Hopefully we can move a handful more by months end.

 

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

No hindsight here!

 

No question you advocated trading Britton then, so you deservedly can pat yourself on the back.    But the part of your post I was talking about was your statement that we weren’t even the third best team in the division going into 2017.    That’s not really addressed in your 2016 post — in fact, the 2016 season wasn’t even over yet.    You were more concerned with the Red Sox and Yankees getting younger and cheaper, while we weren’t, which is a different point.   

[Hank Scorpio]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No question you advocated trading Britton then, so you deservedly can pat yourself on the back.    But the part of your post I was talking about was your statement that we weren’t even the third best team in the division going into 2017.    That’s not really addressed in your 2016 post — in fact, the 2016 season wasn’t even over yet.    You were more concerned with the Red Sox and Yankees getting younger and cheaper, while we weren’t, which is a different point.   

I wouldn’t have advocated trading either of them if I thought they were going to be competitive. 

Obviously I’m not the only one who was of this belief. I just want to make the point that it shouldn’t always be a no brainer to approach something the “standard” way when you’re the Orioles.

[TonySoprano]

Melewski interviewed Jim Callis on the trade.  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/07/jim-callis-and-jj-cooper-weigh-in-on-the-zach-britton-deal.html

Quote

“It’s an interesting package,” said Callis. “The Yankees I think, have the deepest supply of pitching prospects of any farm system in baseball. So this was an easy trade for them to make. Picking up salary is not a problem and you keep Britton away from the Red Sox and Astros.

“While these guys are interesting pitchers, New York has a lot more where that came from. Tate is the biggest name. No. 4 overall pick in 2015 by the Rangers. I still haven’t figured out what he’s going to be. He had some minor things - a hamstring issue in 2016 and some shoulder issues in 2017. Some guys think he’s more reliever than starter because he doesn’t miss a ton of bats.

“But his stuff is pretty good. It’s 93 to 97, 98 (mph) with a four-seamer. He’s working on a two-seamer, I think, to get more ground balls. He’s got a hard slider that can be a plus pitch at times and a changeup that is effective. He’s not the most physical guy, but he’s pretty athletic. It’s a pretty good package there. I’m not convinced 100 percent that he’s going to be a starter. He should, it should all add up, but even if you put him in the ‘pen, maybe he’s knocking on the door of throwing 100 with an even harder slider. He’s interesting.

“Cody Carroll may be someone that not a lot of people have heard of, but he’s really, really good. He had Tommy John surgery in high school and went to Southern Miss and was a 22nd-round pick. He was low 90s when he started in college and now he’s 96 to 98 (mph). I saw him hit 101 (mph) in the Arizona Fall League. And you can’t look for just the fastball because he’s got a mid-80s slider with two-plane break. And a hard splitter that he’ll use to cross up lefties a little bit. Probably needs to throw a few more strikes, but if he does he could even be a closer. He looked so good in the fall league.”

That was last fall when Carroll threw 11 2/3 scoreless innings for Scottsdale in the AFL and gave up just two hits with five walks and 18 strikeouts.

“Rogers is kind of the distant third guy in the trade,” added Callis. “I think he can pitch in the big leagues, but he’s kind of your classic pitchability lefty. He’s 89 to 93 (mph) with good command of the fastball. His best pitch is probably his curve. Decent change. Throws strikes and competes. He had Tommy John surgery at Louisville. He’s not a high-ceiling guy, but maybe a fifth starter or middle reliever.

“Looking at it, I can see why both teams would make the trade. Yankees have a lot of arms. If you’re the Orioles, Britton is leaving at the end of the year. You got a potential No. 3 starter, which would be the ceiling for Tate. Maybe you got a setup man or closer with Carroll if all works out. Rogers can probably eat some innings for you.”

I asked Callis why Tate, who was such a high draft pick and who is pitching with solid stats this year at Double-A, is projected by some scouts as only a reliever.

“His history includes getting hurt in each of his two full pro seasons, hamstring and shoulder, not that he had surgery.” Callis said. “He didn’t throw 100 innings either time. He’s kind of a leaner build, it’s not a real physical build. It’s more a wiry, athletic build. He only started one year in college. He’s at 82 2/3 innings right now and that is an inning short of his career high. He just hasn’t proven he can stay healthy. And as good as his stuff is, it seems better on paper than it plays in games. He doesn’t strike out as many guys as you think,” he said.

 

[weams]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I haven’t got to 2018 game video yet, but watching some 2017 AFL footage, Carroll looks like a heck of a second piece. Premium stuff, double plus FB, plus breaking ball, some deception. He’s a better athlete than I’d have guessed too and there may be more command in the future even though he’s not particularly young.

 

I like it. Another guy from the futures game too. 

[25 Nuggets]

MLB.com has Dillon Tate #4, Cody Carroll #15 and Rogers outside the top 30 in the Orioles organization.  I'll take that because we weren't getting anything for Britton in the off season.

[Just Regular]

I'll certainly be watching Tate through Labor Day like a hawk for innings.  He can abate some of the 80-inning career high criticism by tacking 30-40 more good ones on for the Baysox.  Those will be key to giving him a strong platform to shoot for 150+ in 2019.

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

MLB.com has Dillon Tate #4, Cody Carroll #15 and Rogers outside the top 30 in the Orioles organization.  I'll take that because we weren't getting anything for Britton in the off season.

I really like Tate.  Former #4 overall pick.  He was a top-100 prospect going into 2016.  He fell off a little bit ranking-wise, but is having a nice year in 2018 at AA. 

82.2 IP; 8.17 K/9; 2.72 BB/9; 3.38 ERA; 3.75 FIP; 3.71 xFIP; 1.113 WHIP.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I'll certainly be watching Tate through Labor Day like a hawk for innings.  He can abate some of the 80-inning career high criticism by tacking 30-40 more good ones on for the Baysox.  Those will be key to giving him a strong platform to shoot for 150+ in 2019.

When do you think he's at the big club in 2019?  Start at AAA then up the moment they have an opening?  Barring any FA, I think the rotation will be Bundy - Gausman - Cobb - Cashner - Ramirez (Hess is the 6th guy now, I guess).  Let him play for the remainder of the year once he makes it up with no cap and also get the clock going a bit later?

[24fps]

6 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

Segway rider Jim Bowden gives the Yankees an "A" and the Orioles a "B" on the trade.
 

 

I give Jim Bowden a D- for lifetime contributions to a thinking public.

[hoosiers]

8 hours ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I guess it just depends on where you are at as an organization. I think we thought we were in a good place in 2014 especially. But as time went on, in order to have a truly sustainable and long term winner, we should have been thinking of what you are saying above. Especially when it was clear that we wouldn't be able to resign, guys getting expensive in arbitration, etc. 

The Red Sox are actually in an interesting place right now IMO. Their rotation is on the older side and their farm isn't very good. Their Major League team is obviously set up pretty well with the bullpen, defense and offense (and starters, although on older side). Should they consider trading some of their pieces, or because they have financial resources they don't need to be as proactive? 

BoSox are interesting because they are so good and so well constructed right now, but their farm system is abysmal.  They are going to have to pony up big $ in the next few years to Betts, Benintendi, Bradley, Jr.  They run the risk of running up a huge payroll because of their lack of a farm system.  I think they have to run out the string the next few years as one of the best teams in baseball, but it could get bleak after that as the club ages and there is a lack of quality ready to replace older, expensive veterans.  They are in a bit of a race to get the farm system back up to top 10 standards to be ready to replace expiring contracts.  I don't think it will end well for them and could see a period in four or five years where they don't make the playoffs in consecutive years or for two out of three years.  Keep in mind that the Red Sox land premier free agent talent and so would have better quality on hand to deal in years they don't make the playoffs to hasten their next competitive period.

[ThomasTomasz]

I'm happy with it.  Tate is a better headliner at this point than Colin Moran was, though obviously we don't know who else was involved.  Tate could be a middle of the rotation guy, but could also transition to the bullpen.  Obviously, we want to see him as a starter, and I am encouraged that his prospect star has been coming back as of late.  Baseball America ranked him the #6 Yankees prospect in their mid-season report. 

Carroll is a very intriguing piece.  His fastball sits mid 90s, to 97, and he's been clocked up to 101 at times, so it's a major league ready pitch.  He has a bit of refinement on his slider command, and it could be a wipeout pitch for him.  He dominated the AFL, and has done a great job in AAA this year.  Carroll could take over for Britton as closer as early as next season with the stuff he has.  

Rogers is a typical lefty command guy who is likely going to be a #5 starter or bullpen piece.  It's nice to take a flier on him as we need a lefty starter and he will get every chance next season to prove he can hold that job down.  

[Bradysburns]

17 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

It does help. that like Ky & Duke in NCAA Basketball, Penn State in NCAA Football, that they dont even have to recruit, or beg/lure prospects  to their organization, the name draws them in.

Which is why we should have TWICE as many scouts down there! We need to adjust our strategy to somehow compensate for those factors, which are real and persistent. 

We've been doing the OPPOSITE of what we should be doing... by limiting ourselves to the constrained and expensive domestic market. This is another thing I trust John Angelos (just assuming he's taking over at some point) will act on, ASAP.