Orioles Top 50 Prospects - Midseason Edition...now including the Gausman/Schoop returns

[hoosiers]

15 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Lotta work.  Thanks much.

Yes.  Well done, Luke.

[survivedc]

I think the two guys I’m most interested in are Hanifee and Adam Hall. Both are young, and from what I’ve read seem to have interesting tools. Hanifee has performed well already but they seem like guys that with solid showings next year could really boost, if nothing else, the perception of quality depth in the minors.

[bpilktree67]

It’s going to be tough to get under 100 million unless they trade both Schoop and Gausman.  You have 67 million in Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, Casner, and o’Day.  You figure Schoop gets 11 million and Gausman $8 million that puts you at 86 million.  Beckham gets $4 million and Bundy 2.5 million Joseph $2.5 million That gets you 95 million You stil have 15 spots to fill and even at minimum puts you over 100 million.  I think they may add a couple cheap guys for experience as well.  

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, bpilktree67 said:

It’s going to be tough to get under 100 million unless they trade both Schoop and Gausman.  You have 67 million in Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, Casner, and o’Day.  You figure Schoop gets 11 million and Gausman $8 million that puts you at 86 million.  Beckham gets $4 million and Bundy 2.5 million Joseph $2.5 million That gets you 95 million You stil have 15 spots to fill and even at minimum puts you over 100 million.  I think they may add a couple cheap guys for experience as well.  

I think the "under 100" number includes the trade of Schoop and Gausman.  There's also Trumbo, Cashner and O'Day who are expiring after 2019 but they feel more like in-season trades; so partial salary.

[wildcard]

Davis 23m

Cobb 14m

Trumbo 9m (Traded next July)

O'Day 6m (Traded next July)

Cashner 7m (Traded next July)

That is 58m committed for 5 players

Arbtration

Schoop 11m

Gausman 9m

Beckham 5m

Bundy 5m

Givens 2m

Arbitration Total 32m 5 players

Arb and current contracts  90m for 10 players

555k times 15 players  8.325m

Plus 1/3 of three players to replace the ones traded  = .555m

Total 2019 payroll  98.88m

So, somewhere around 100m

[sportsfan8703]

Just for discussion, what about the guys we traded/waived the last two years,

Jesus Liranzo (DFA)

Tobias Myers (Beckham 17’)

Jonah Heim (Steve Pearce 16’)

Jean Cosme (Despaigne 16’)

Liranzo had is having a good year in AAA, but relievers are volitaile and the Pirates haven’t even given him a chance in the MLB. Toby Myers is the guy I would want back. Top 20 prospect for the Rays.  Other than that, nothing of value was really lost. 

[POR]

16 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I didn’t think it was poor before the season, more in the 15-20 range and underrated. I think it’s close to top 10 now if not in it.

It lacks a player with the type of star upside to build around, which is why I think future trades should prioritize ceiling. 

The trades had improved the farm system but top ten seems like a huge stretch.

Padres, Braves, White Sox, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A's, Reds, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros, Twins, Brewers and Angels.  That is fourteen teams that  I think still clearly have a better system than the Orioles.  Of these teams,  who do you think he Orioles are ahead of?   

[POR]

13 hours ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for the explanation.   Personally, I see more risk in Mullins.  His pattern of  not hitting in the 2nd half,  his weak arm and his not hitting lefties at AAA  show more risk to me than a 21 year old McKenna who has more upside.

Either one can improve but Mullins is starting to look like a platoon 4th outfielder to me.   I hope he does better than that.

Mullins having a poor second half in 2017 does not equal a pattern.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, POR said:

Mullins having a poor second half in 2017 does not equal a pattern.  

If he does the same thing this year it does.     I hope he doesn't.  He had a good game yesterday.   We will just have to wait and see how he does.

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, POR said:

Mullins having a poor second half in 2017 does not equal a pattern.  

He was also fighting injuries for most of the 2nd half last year.  He's a streaky guy as is - I'm not investing any stock in the "he struggles in the 2nd half" argument yet.

The platoon splits are a bit more troubling, but if all Mullins becomes is a platoon 4th OF, who can play good defense and be a pinch runner while adding a little pop, that's still great value from a 13th round pick.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If he does the same thing this year it does.     I hope he doesn't.  He had a good game yesterday.   We will just have to wait and see how he does.

Not really.  Would take more than two years of data.  Get back with me in 2022.

[DirtyBird]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just for discussion, what about the guys we traded/waived the last two years,

Jesus Liranzo (DFA)

Tobias Myers (Beckham 17’)

Jonah Heim (Steve Pearce 16’)

Jean Cosme (Despaigne 16’)

Liranzo had is having a good year in AAA, but relievers are volitaile and the Pirates haven’t even given him a chance in the MLB. Toby Myers is the guy I would want back. Top 20 prospect for the Rays.  Other than that, nothing of value was really lost. 

I think Myers would be top 20, if not even top 15. I agree - I wish we still had him in the system, instead of a guy who just fills a roster need on a bad major league team.

[Ohfan67]

12 hours ago, weams said:

Ok, How about 100 Then. 

Year    25-man Opening Day    
2018    $148,574,615

I think it will be low next year, but above 120 in 2020 as the Orioles start to build an attempt to be competitive in 2021. 120 is going to be a very low payroll by 2021. 

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for the explanation.   Personally, I see more risk in Mullins.  His pattern of  not hitting in the 2nd half,  his weak arm and his not hitting lefties at AAA  show more risk to me than a 21 year old McKenna who has more upside.

Either one can improve but Mullins is starting to look like a platoon 4th outfielder to me.   I hope he does better than that.

I think it’s premature to infer a “pattern” of not hitting well in the second half.   Mullins has been a bit chilly for 2.5 weeks, but that’s not exactly an extended period of time.   And he certainly didn’t follow that “pattern” in 2016.    Hitting lefties is more of an issue, though he did make strides this year on that issue in AA and hopefully can continue to make progress there.   

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s premature to infer a “pattern” of not hitting well in the second half.   Mullins has been a bit chilly for 2.5 weeks, but that’s not exactly an extended period of time.   And he certainly didn’t follow that “pattern” in 2016.    Hitting lefties is more of an issue, though he did make strides this year on that issue in AA and hopefully can continue to make progress there.   

I don't think its premature to point out that he had trouble in the 2nd half last year and slumped early in the 2nd half this year.   If it continues it would be following the same problem which may develop into a pattern.

Hopefully he keeps hitting like he did yesterday and that problem does not develop further.