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Why we could be "good again" sooner than many expect

Bradysburns

By Bradysburns
in Orioles Talk

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spiritof66 Hangout Grand Counsel

spiritof66

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bradysburns said:

I realize we're in for a long road ahead. 

It will be years before we compete for the playoffs again. 

However, I suspect we'll be fun to watch -- even GOOD -- sooner than expected. 

Why? Two words: pitching and defense. 

Cobb, Cashner and Bundy will form the top of our rotation next season. There's reason to think they'll all have much improved years. Bundy's older and a year further removed from injury. Cobb is finding his footing in Baltimore. Cashner has mid-rotation stuff, easily. AND... our defense should be markedly improved when the likes of Mullins, Hayes and Diaz are patrolling the outfield. 

We're essentially going to have three center fielders out there. And that should be both unusual, and fun to watch. 

Imagine all those "doubles" from Yankee hitters... magically getting caught, with highlight-reel catches, night after night. 

If we improve our infield defense, which should not be difficult... we could have an elite defense, behind a young but veteran rotation. 

If guys like Dillon Tate and Luis Ortiz can come up and perform... we could be fun to watch as soon as the second half of next year. 

I don't see us winning more than 70 games next year. But I do think the second half could be legitimately enjoyable. 

Agreed? Or do you see multiple years of ugly baseball ahead? 

That's one of the reasons that makes baseball so much fun: there's no way no know how good these guys will be in a year or two. They may not be any good at all, and we'l just have to wait and see. (That's also the reason to look for quantity as well as quantity in trading for younger prospects, and in international free agent signings.) You listen to people with knowledge and talent for assessing players' skills and projecting their value, but they're often wrong. 

I wish I could share your optimism, but I think it would take more than two or three of whatever you're having. While you legitimately, if a bit over-enthusiastically, look forward to our OF defense, there are all kinds of question marks around the offense, pitching (starters and relievers), and infield defense (sure, it will be improved, but an upgrade on what we've got now could still be bad or mediocre). And the offense. We've got a bunch of guys who might produce against major league pitching, but might not.

Watching should be a lot more fun and interesting than it's been to follow this year's predictable losers, but I'm not expecting a lot of wins in the foreseeable future, let alone playoff contention.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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What makes you think that Bundy will not be traded?    

With the O's trade everyone that is making money approach  I don't see this team contending until 2023.    If that is true Bundy and Givens will be on the block this off season.

The infielder Grenier, Carmona, Encarnacion , Adam Hall will probably not be ready to contend until that time.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will probably not be established in the rotation and knowledge about the league until 2023.

Orioles.com profile is not sure whether Tate is a starter or a reliever and the same could be said for Hunter Harvey's durability.

#3's, 4's and 5s  Akin,  Oritz may be ready sometime next year to make it to the majors but they have to learn the league which could mean 2020 before they are competitive. 

I think we should not think this process will be a short one.  2023 contention sounds about right.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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Posted
6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think that Bundy will not be traded?    

With the O's trade everyone that is making money approach  I don't see this team contending until 2023.    If that is true Bundy and Givens will be on the block this off season.

The infielder Grenier, Carmona, Encarnacion , Adam Hall will probably not be ready to contend until that time.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will probably not be established in the rotation and knowledge about the league until 2023.

Orioles.com profile is not sure whether Tate is a starter or a reliever and the same could be said for Hunter Harvey's durability.

#3's, 4's and 5s  Akin,  Oritz may be ready sometime next year to make it to the majors but they have to learn the league which could mean 2020 before they are competitive. 

I think we should not think this process will be a short one.  2023 contention sounds about right.

I think we're going to be clawing at our eyes by 2023.  There are a lot of pieces expected to make their debut in 2019 and I would hope they are seasoned by 2021.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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2 hours ago, 99ct said:

I appreciate the sentiment and would love for it to be true. But pointing to Bundy, Cobb and Cashner, and concluding that we now "have pitching," is a huge mistake, IMO. Those three are decent, but far from exceptional. Further, the chance of all three improving next year is a long-shot, though I admit its a possibility. The real problem is that even then, its only 3/5.

Remember how hard it was to find a fifth starter who wasn't an automatic loss in '16-'17? Now try finding a fourth and fifth starter, while also hoping that Bundy, Cobb and Cashner are good.

In short, the odds are slim.

But we do have a bunch of starters performing very well at Delmarva/Frederick.   And guys considered good prospects like Harvey/Akin.   And we added several starters to the organization through trades.

Honestly, I don't think finding a respectable 4th/5th starter by 2020 will be a problem.   I would be more concerned that even with Bundy and Cobb and Cashner, we might be lacking in top of the rotation arms.  

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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19 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

I think we're going to be clawing at our eyes by 2023.  There are a lot of pieces expected to make their debut in 2019 and I would hope they are seasoned by 2021.

So do you think the O's will keep Bundy or trade him?

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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Just now, Tx Oriole said:

Well if the team wins 70 games in 2019 that's an improvement. I try to keep a positive outlook. 

If this team wins 70 games in 2019 it will probably be the biggest improevment of any team in MLB.   20 to 25 game pickup.

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NedFromYork Major Leaguer Rising Star

NedFromYork

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I agree a quick retool WAS possible two years from now if they had kept Gausman and Schoop, still would have had Bundy, Cobb, Gausman in the rotation.  But now, no way.  I was all for trading Machado, Britton, and Brach, and wish there was a way to trade AJ and find a home for Trumbo, but was not in favor of trading Guasman and Schoop.  Oh well.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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3 minutes ago, NedFromYork said:

I agree a quick retool WAS possible two years from now if they had kept Gausman and Schoop, still would have had Bundy, Cobb, Gausman in the rotation.  But now, no way.  I was all for trading Machado, Britton, and Brach, and wish there was a way to trade AJ and find a home for Trumbo, but was not in favor of trading Guasman and Schoop.  Oh well.

You're talking sense.

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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40 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think that Bundy will not be traded?    

With the O's trade everyone that is making money approach  I don't see this team contending until 2023.    If that is true Bundy and Givens will be on the block this off season.

The infielder Grenier, Carmona, Encarnacion , Adam Hall will probably not be ready to contend until that time.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will probably not be established in the rotation and knowledge about the league until 2023.

Orioles.com profile is not sure whether Tate is a starter or a reliever and the same could be said for Hunter Harvey's durability.

#3's, 4's and 5s  Akin,  Oritz may be ready sometime next year to make it to the majors but they have to learn the league which could mean 2020 before they are competitive. 

I think we should not think this process will be a short one.  2023 contention sounds about right.

Why not try to be a bit positive? I will cheer for the team. It may be a while but hang on. It's going to be better.

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