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Gausman Versus Archer

wildbillhiccup

By wildbillhiccup
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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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So this afternoon we found out that the Rays not only got Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Chris Archer, but also Shane Baz (PTBNL), the 12th overall pick in last year's draft. We know that the Pirates were interested in Gausman...is it really that much of a leap to assume that some of these pieces were made available? Is the gap between Archer and Gausman really that significant or did we get completely miss the boat on trading with the Pirates? 

Archer

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
7 Yrs 55 68 .447 3.70 181 179 1 3 3 0 1072.1 972 494 441 119 353 4 1155 33 0 59 4499 106 3.50 1.236 8.2 1.0 3.0 9.7 3.27
2012 23 TBR AL 1 3 .250 4.60 6 4 1 0 0 0 29.1 23 17 15 3 13 0 36 1 0 2 122 85 3.40 1.227 7.1 0.9 4.0 11.0 2.77  
2013 24 TBR AL 9 7 .563 3.22 23 23 0 2 2 0 128.2 107 49 46 15 38 2 101 8 0 7 525 120 4.07 1.127 7.5 1.0 2.7 7.1 2.66 RoY-3
2014 25 TBR AL 10 9 .526 3.33 32 32 0 0 0 0 194.2 177 85 72 12 72 1 173 8 0 8 822 112 3.39 1.279 8.2 0.6 3.3 8.0 2.40  
2015 26 TBR AL 12 13 .480 3.23 34 34 0 1 1 0 212.0 175 85 76 19 66 0 252 3 0 13 868 121 2.90 1.137 7.4 0.8 2.8 10.7 3.82 AS,CYA-5
2016 27 TBR AL 9 19 .321 4.02 33 33 0 0 0 0 201.1 183 100 90 30 67 0 233 3 0 11 850 100 3.81 1.242 8.2 1.3 3.0 10.4 3.48  
2017 28 TBR AL 10 12 .455 4.07 34 34 0 0 0 0 201.0 193 101 91 27 60 0 249 5 0 15 852 101 3.40 1.259 8.6 1.2 2.7 11.1 4.15 AS
2018 29 TOT MLB 4 5 .444 4.36 19 19 0 0 0 0 105.1 114 57 51 13 37 1 111 5 0 3 460 92 3.85 1.434 9.7 1.1 3.2 9.5 3.00  
2018 29 TBR AL 3 5 .375 4.31 17 17 0 0 0 0 96.0 102 50 46 11 31 0 102 4 0 3 413 93 3.62 1.385 9.6 1.0 2.9 9.6 3.29  
2018 29 PIT NL 1 0 1.000 4.82 2 2 0 0 0 0 9.1 12 7 5 2 6 1 9 1 0 0 47 85 6.27 1.929 11.6 1.9 5.8 8.7 1.50  

 

Gausman

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
6 Yrs 40 52 .435 4.19 152 129 4 1 0 0 776.2 813 375 362 110 232 4 707 19 1 42 3307 100 4.13 1.345 9.4 1.3 2.7 8.2 3.05
2013 22 BAL AL 3 5 .375 5.66 20 5 3 0 0 0 47.2 51 30 30 8 13 2 49 0 0 4 201 72 3.99 1.343 9.6 1.5 2.5 9.3 3.77  
2014 23 BAL AL 7 7 .500 3.57 20 20 0 1 0 0 113.1 111 48 45 7 38 0 88 1 0 9 476 110 3.41 1.315 8.8 0.6 3.0 7.0 2.32  
2015 24 BAL AL 4 7 .364 4.25 25 17 1 0 0 0 112.1 109 56 53 17 29 1 103 2 0 7 470 97 4.10 1.228 8.7 1.4 2.3 8.3 3.55  
2016 25 BAL AL 9 12 .429 3.61 30 30 0 0 0 0 179.2 183 76 72 28 47 1 174 5 0 8 757 119 4.10 1.280 9.2 1.4 2.4 8.7 3.70  
2017 26 BAL AL 11 12 .478 4.68 34 34 0 0 0 0 186.2 208 99 97 29 71 0 179 5 1 8 816 93 4.48 1.495 10.0 1.4 3.4 8.6 2.52  
2018 27 TOT MLB 6 9 .400 4.27 23 23 0 0 0 0 137.0 151 66 65 21 34 0 114 6 0 6 587 98 4.36 1.350 9.9 1.4 2.2 7.5 3.35  
2018 27 BAL AL 5 8 .385 4.43 21 21 0 0 0 0 124.0 139 62 61 21 32 0 104 5 0 6 534 95 4.58 1.379 10.1 1.5 2.3 7.5 3.25  
2018 27 ATL NL 1 1 .500 2.77 2 2 0 0 0 0 13.0 12 4 4 0 2 0 10 1 0 0 53 146 2.31 1.077 8.3 0.0 1.4 6.9 5.00  
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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So this afternoon we found out that the Rays not only got Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Chris Archer, but also Shane Baz (PTBNL), the 12th overall pick in last year's draft. We know that the Pirates were interested in Gausman...is it really that much of a leap to assume that some of these pieces were made available? Is the gap between Archer and Gausman really that significant or did we get completely miss the boat on trading with the Pirates? 

Archer

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
7 Yrs 55 68 .447 3.70 181 179 1 3 3 0 1072.1 972 494 441 119 353 4 1155 33 0 59 4499 106 3.50 1.236 8.2 1.0 3.0 9.7 3.27
2012 23 TBR AL 1 3 .250 4.60 6 4 1 0 0 0 29.1 23 17 15 3 13 0 36 1 0 2 122 85 3.40 1.227 7.1 0.9 4.0 11.0 2.77  
2013 24 TBR AL 9 7 .563 3.22 23 23 0 2 2 0 128.2 107 49 46 15 38 2 101 8 0 7 525 120 4.07 1.127 7.5 1.0 2.7 7.1 2.66 RoY-3
2014 25 TBR AL 10 9 .526 3.33 32 32 0 0 0 0 194.2 177 85 72 12 72 1 173 8 0 8 822 112 3.39 1.279 8.2 0.6 3.3 8.0 2.40  
2015 26 TBR AL 12 13 .480 3.23 34 34 0 1 1 0 212.0 175 85 76 19 66 0 252 3 0 13 868 121 2.90 1.137 7.4 0.8 2.8 10.7 3.82 AS,CYA-5
2016 27 TBR AL 9 19 .321 4.02 33 33 0 0 0 0 201.1 183 100 90 30 67 0 233 3 0 11 850 100 3.81 1.242 8.2 1.3 3.0 10.4 3.48  
2017 28 TBR AL 10 12 .455 4.07 34 34 0 0 0 0 201.0 193 101 91 27 60 0 249 5 0 15 852 101 3.40 1.259 8.6 1.2 2.7 11.1 4.15 AS
2018 29 TOT MLB 4 5 .444 4.36 19 19 0 0 0 0 105.1 114 57 51 13 37 1 111 5 0 3 460 92 3.85 1.434 9.7 1.1 3.2 9.5 3.00  
2018 29 TBR AL 3 5 .375 4.31 17 17 0 0 0 0 96.0 102 50 46 11 31 0 102 4 0 3 413 93 3.62 1.385 9.6 1.0 2.9 9.6 3.29  
2018 29 PIT NL 1 0 1.000 4.82 2 2 0 0 0 0 9.1 12 7 5 2 6 1 9 1 0 0 47 85 6.27 1.929 11.6 1.9 5.8 8.7 1.50  

 

Gausman

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
6 Yrs 40 52 .435 4.19 152 129 4 1 0 0 776.2 813 375 362 110 232 4 707 19 1 42 3307 100 4.13 1.345 9.4 1.3 2.7 8.2 3.05
2013 22 BAL AL 3 5 .375 5.66 20 5 3 0 0 0 47.2 51 30 30 8 13 2 49 0 0 4 201 72 3.99 1.343 9.6 1.5 2.5 9.3 3.77  
2014 23 BAL AL 7 7 .500 3.57 20 20 0 1 0 0 113.1 111 48 45 7 38 0 88 1 0 9 476 110 3.41 1.315 8.8 0.6 3.0 7.0 2.32  
2015 24 BAL AL 4 7 .364 4.25 25 17 1 0 0 0 112.1 109 56 53 17 29 1 103 2 0 7 470 97 4.10 1.228 8.7 1.4 2.3 8.3 3.55  
2016 25 BAL AL 9 12 .429 3.61 30 30 0 0 0 0 179.2 183 76 72 28 47 1 174 5 0 8 757 119 4.10 1.280 9.2 1.4 2.4 8.7 3.70  
2017 26 BAL AL 11 12 .478 4.68 34 34 0 0 0 0 186.2 208 99 97 29 71 0 179 5 1 8 816 93 4.48 1.495 10.0 1.4 3.4 8.6 2.52  
2018 27 TOT MLB 6 9 .400 4.27 23 23 0 0 0 0 137.0 151 66 65 21 34 0 114 6 0 6 587 98 4.36 1.350 9.9 1.4 2.2 7.5 3.35  
2018 27 BAL AL 5 8 .385 4.43 21 21 0 0 0 0 124.0 139 62 61 21 32 0 104 5 0 6 534 95 4.58 1.379 10.1 1.5 2.3 7.5 3.25  
2018 27 ATL NL 1 1 .500 2.77 2 2 0 0 0 0 13.0 12 4 4 0 2 0 10 1 0 0 53 146 2.31 1.077 8.3 0.0 1.4 6.9 5.00  

Wow...sorry for the choppy English. Too much cutting + pasting and multi-tasking. 

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jamalshw All-Star

jamalshw

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That is quite the haul for Archer, but I do think Archer is more valuable than Gausman and I'd have to think Gausman was a backup plan to Archer rather than an alternative.

I'm one that is the "we didn't get enough for Gausman" camp, but I don't think we could have gotten anything close to the Archer deal for Gausman. I think we could've gotten Baz as the headliner with someone like Kevin Newman and I would have much preferred that package over the Braves, but--again--I don't think we could've gotten that unless someone upped the ante of Archer first and took him from Pittsburgh.

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Archer for whatever reason has the reputation of being a top of the rotation type pitcher.  Except his numbers suggest otherwise the last few years.

Gausman’s return was also hurt by having O’Day thrown into the deal.

Agree on all accounts. I think we should have been more concerned with getting prospects and less concerned with dumping O'Day's salary. I think we all would have been very happy with just two of the players the Ray's received in return for Archer. 

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

That is quite the haul for Archer, but I do think Archer is more valuable than Gausman and I'd have to think Gausman was a backup plan to Archer rather than an alternative.

I'm one that is the "we didn't get enough for Gausman" camp, but I don't think we could have gotten anything close to the Archer deal for Gausman. I think we could've gotten Baz as the headliner with someone like Kevin Newman and I would have much preferred that package over the Braves, but--again--I don't think we could've gotten that unless someone upped the ante of Archer first and took him from Pittsburgh.

I feel like Baz and Glasnow would have definitely been doable. And I'm not so sure Gausman was the back up plan. The Pirates weren't linked to Archer until the very end. 

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Archer went for $14 FAAB in my NL-only fantasy league.  Total season FAAB budget it $50.  I got Gausman for $5.

...I understand and I'm not saying Archer isn't better, but he's not "that" much better. Not according to the numbers. Gausman is also younger. 

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

...I understand and I'm not saying Archer isn't better, but he's not "that" much better. Not according to the numbers. Gausman is also younger. 

No argument.  Just pointing out how non-Oriole fans view Archer vs. Gausman.

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, Gausman has never had a truly good season as a starting pitcher. Archer was elite in 2015 and close in 2014. bWAR has them fairly close but Archer destroys Gausman in fWAR (19 to 11).

2016...179.2 innings pitched...with a 3.61 era... in the AL East. I think I'd certainly qualify that as a good season. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So this afternoon we found out that the Rays not only got Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Chris Archer, but also Shane Baz (PTBNL), the 12th overall pick in last year's draft. We know that the Pirates were interested in Gausman...is it really that much of a leap to assume that some of these pieces were made available?Is the gap between Archer and Gausman really that significant or did we get completely miss the boat on trading with the Pirates? 

Archer

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
7 Yrs 55 68 .447 3.70 181 179 1 3 3 0 1072.1 972 494 441 119 353 4 1155 33 0 59 4499 106 3.50 1.236 8.2 1.0 3.0 9.7 3.27
2012 23 TBR AL 1 3 .250 4.60 6 4 1 0 0 0 29.1 23 17 15 3 13 0 36 1 0 2 122 85 3.40 1.227 7.1 0.9 4.0 11.0 2.77  
2013 24 TBR AL 9 7 .563 3.22 23 23 0 2 2 0 128.2 107 49 46 15 38 2 101 8 0 7 525 120 4.07 1.127 7.5 1.0 2.7 7.1 2.66 RoY-3
2014 25 TBR AL 10 9 .526 3.33 32 32 0 0 0 0 194.2 177 85 72 12 72 1 173 8 0 8 822 112 3.39 1.279 8.2 0.6 3.3 8.0 2.40  
2015 26 TBR AL 12 13 .480 3.23 34 34 0 1 1 0 212.0 175 85 76 19 66 0 252 3 0 13 868 121 2.90 1.137 7.4 0.8 2.8 10.7 3.82 AS,CYA-5
2016 27 TBR AL 9 19 .321 4.02 33 33 0 0 0 0 201.1 183 100 90 30 67 0 233 3 0 11 850 100 3.81 1.242 8.2 1.3 3.0 10.4 3.48  
2017 28 TBR AL 10 12 .455 4.07 34 34 0 0 0 0 201.0 193 101 91 27 60 0 249 5 0 15 852 101 3.40 1.259 8.6 1.2 2.7 11.1 4.15 AS
2018 29 TOT MLB 4 5 .444 4.36 19 19 0 0 0 0 105.1 114 57 51 13 37 1 111 5 0 3 460 92 3.85 1.434 9.7 1.1 3.2 9.5 3.00  
2018 29 TBR AL 3 5 .375 4.31 17 17 0 0 0 0 96.0 102 50 46 11 31 0 102 4 0 3 413 93 3.62 1.385 9.6 1.0 2.9 9.6 3.29  
2018 29 PIT NL 1 0 1.000 4.82 2 2 0 0 0 0 9.1 12 7 5 2 6 1 9 1 0 0 47 85 6.27 1.929 11.6 1.9 5.8 8.7 1.50  

 

Gausman

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
6 Yrs 40 52 .435 4.19 152 129 4 1 0 0 776.2 813 375 362 110 232 4 707 19 1 42 3307 100 4.13 1.345 9.4 1.3 2.7 8.2 3.05
2013 22 BAL AL 3 5 .375 5.66 20 5 3 0 0 0 47.2 51 30 30 8 13 2 49 0 0 4 201 72 3.99 1.343 9.6 1.5 2.5 9.3 3.77  
2014 23 BAL AL 7 7 .500 3.57 20 20 0 1 0 0 113.1 111 48 45 7 38 0 88 1 0 9 476 110 3.41 1.315 8.8 0.6 3.0 7.0 2.32  
2015 24 BAL AL 4 7 .364 4.25 25 17 1 0 0 0 112.1 109 56 53 17 29 1 103 2 0 7 470 97 4.10 1.228 8.7 1.4 2.3 8.3 3.55  
2016 25 BAL AL 9 12 .429 3.61 30 30 0 0 0 0 179.2 183 76 72 28 47 1 174 5 0 8 757 119 4.10 1.280 9.2 1.4 2.4 8.7 3.70  
2017 26 BAL AL 11 12 .478 4.68 34 34 0 0 0 0 186.2 208 99 97 29 71 0 179 5 1 8 816 93 4.48 1.495 10.0 1.4 3.4 8.6 2.52  
2018 27 TOT MLB 6 9 .400 4.27 23 23 0 0 0 0 137.0 151 66 65 21 34 0 114 6 0 6 587 98 4.36 1.350 9.9 1.4 2.2 7.5 3.35  
2018 27 BAL AL 5 8 .385 4.43 21 21 0 0 0 0 124.0 139 62 61 21 32 0 104 5 0 6 534 95 4.58 1.379 10.1 1.5 2.3 7.5 3.25  
2018 27 ATL NL 1 1 .500 2.77 2 2 0 0 0 0 13.0 12 4 4 0 2 0 10 1 0 0 53 146 2.31 1.077 8.3 0.0 1.4 6.9 5.00  

It’s something of a leap, simply because we don’t know how far our discussions with the Pirates ever got.    I do think that, even taking the differences in the two pitchers into account, the Rays got more proportional value back for their asset than we did for ours.    

I suspect Baz’s value may have dropped a bit this year, after his placement in the Appy League and his mediocre performance there.   The Appy League is considered above the GCL but below the NY-Penn League.    Baz in 10 starts is sporting a 3.97 ERA and 1.50 WHIP there.   Meanwhile DL Hall, drafted 9 spots behind him, has a 2.24 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in the full-season Sally League.   That’s more a comment on Hall’s progress than Baz’s lack of it, but I’d venture a guess that Baz will fall off the top 100 lists he was on prior to this season, while Hall probably will be on some.   

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joelala All-Star

joelala

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Aren't PTBNLs normally much lower profile guys than Baz?  That's a crazy haul for a pitcher who's best years seem to be behind him.  Kudos to the Rays FO.  Wow.

Their farm system is stacked BTW.  They have a chance to be very good, very soon.

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

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Archer is under contract for a fixed amount until the end of 2021.

Gausman is arb eligible, and a free agent after 2020. 

That is one of the main differences. Also, the actual GM said they are being directed to cut payroll. Was it foolish trading O'Day with Gausman...yep. However, this is what he was directed to do.

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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3 minutes ago, joelala said:

Aren't PTBNLs normally much lower profile guys than Baz?  That's a crazy haul for a pitcher who's best years seem to be behind him.  Kudos to the Rays FO.  Wow.

Their farm system is stacked BTW.  They have a chance to be very good, very soon.

Yep. It's almost an Astro like turnaround, in terms of how they've been able to overhaul their farm system. I honestly thought they might have missed the boat by not trading Archer last season, but it's hard to imagine them getting a bigger return for him. Glasnow has been great since the trade too and I'm sure Meadows will be roaming their OF come September. 

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