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Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record?

Greg Pappas

By Greg Pappas
in Orioles Talk

Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record?   

72 members have voted

  1. 1. Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record?

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  • Poll closed on 10/01/18 at 03:59

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osfan83 Major Leaguer Rising Star

osfan83

Posted
Posted

It's so hard to know.....I picked 2020....but we have no idea who will be on the team even then. What if next years team is lucky, and out performs the talent level and wins 74/75 games? Management thinks it is worth investing in a top FA or 2? It's possible to get an 82/83 win team in 2020 if two high level FA's join the team with 4 or 5 above average youngsters......... Then again, we could be sitting here in 2040 waiting for the next .500 team. 

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

13 times, since 1990, a team has gone from last place to first place team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/from-worst-to-first-13-improbable-turnarounds/c-212138822

Let's break it down
1998/99 D'Backs +35W
2007/08 Rays +31W
1990/91 Braves +29W
2010/11 D'Backs +29W
2012/13 Sox +28W
1992/93 Phillies +27W
1996/97 Giants +22W
1997/98 Padres +22W
1990/91 Twins +21W
2014/15 Rangers +21W
2006/07 Cubs +19W
2015/16 Sox +15W
2006/07 D'Backs +14W

The average improvement is 24 wins.  Add 35 wins (tops on the list) to the Orioles next season and they're still below .500

 

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Let's break it down
1998/99 D'Backs +35W
2007/08 Rays +31W
1990/91 Braves +29W
2010/11 D'Backs +29W
2012/13 Sox +28W
1992/93 Phillies +27W
1996/97 Giants +22W
1997/98 Padres +22W
1990/91 Twins +21W
2014/15 Rangers +21W
2006/07 Cubs +19W
2015/16 Sox +15W
2006/07 D'Backs +14W

The average improvement is 24 wins.  Add 35 wins (tops on the list) to the Orioles next season and they're still below .500

 

Maybe, but it does leave hope, that just because some teams took 10 years to get better, it doesn't mean it will take the Oriole 10 years.

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Maybe, but it does leave hope, that just because some teams took 10 years to get better, it doesn't mean it will take the Oriole 10 years.

It took the Orioles 3 years from 2011-14, +27W.    Again, the hole dug by this team, 57 below .500 and counting, is more than double the size of that of the 2011 Orioles who finished 24 below. 
2018 could end up close to 70 games below .500.  70!  Coming back from that in the same 3 years would be miraculous, as in actual Divine intervention required.  The clouds part above and...
AngelicTediousGreyhounddog-small.gif 

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osfan83 Major Leaguer Rising Star

osfan83

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Posted
1 minute ago, TonySoprano said:

It took the Orioles 3 years from 2011-14, +27W.    Again, the hole dug by this team, 57 below .500 and counting, is more than double the size of that of the 2011 Orioles who finished 24 below. 
2018 could end up close to 70 games below .500.  70!  Coming back from that in the same 3 years would be miraculous, as in actual Divine intervention required.  The clouds part above and...
AngelicTediousGreyhounddog-small.gif 

Guess I don't understand this logic. If 3 years from now only 5 on the 25 man roster played for us in 2018...why would the awful performance in 2018 have anything to do with 2021 performance? 

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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16 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Guess I don't understand this logic. If 3 years from now only 5 on the 25 man roster played for us in 2018...why would the awful performance in 2018 have anything to do with 2021 performance? 

A GM that can radically transform his team roster and win in that relatively short period of time should go straight to Cooperstown. 
Do not pass go. 
Do not collect $200.

For Epstein/Hoyer's Cubs, it took 4 years.  Furthermore, what they built, they've been able to sustain for 4 straight years.   That should be the goal of the Orioles.

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crawjo Major Leaguer Rising Star

crawjo

Posted
Posted

Impossible to say. I don't think the talent exists in the organization right now to produce an MLB team with a winning record. So it all depends on how we draft, what trades we make, and how we perform in the international market. But at a minimum I would say we aren't getting there until 2021, and that's a best-case scenario.

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MMussina35 AAA

MMussina35

Posted
Posted

2027 - Major assumptions: Son's don't sell. They leave Buck/Brady duo intact. It takes the sons three years to figure out that Buck/Brady can't evaluate talent or judge the market properly. The sons finally hire someone competent prior to the 2022 season and that person takes 5 years to build from the ashes. Brightside? They cut it down from 14 years to 10 years. 

 

 

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

Posted
Posted

They are 23.5 games out of 4th place. That number will most likely continue to grow over the next month and a piece.

There is no way to predict anything with this much of a deficit. All of the teams above Baltimore in the East have much better rosters (obviously), and in most cases a better farm. There isn't any reason to expect a whole lot for at 5 years.

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osfan83 Major Leaguer Rising Star

osfan83

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Posted
2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

A GM that can radically transform his team roster and win in that relatively short period of time should go straight to Cooperstown. 
Do not pass go. 
Do not collect $200.

For Epstein/Hoyer's Cubs, it took 4 years.  Furthermore, what they built, they've been able to sustain for 4 straight years.   That should be the goal of the Orioles.

How many on the 25 man right now are likely to be on the 2021 25 man:

Bundy - Maybe

Carroll - Maybe

Cashner - No

Castro- No

Cobb - No

Fry- Maybe

Gilmartin - Maybe

Givens - No

Hess - maybe

Messinger - Maybe

Rameriz - Maybe

Scott - yes

Wright - no

Joseph - no

Wynns - maybe

Beckham - no

Davis - no

Nunez - maybe

Peterson - no

Villar - maybe

Andrioli - no

Gentry - no

Jones - no

Mancinni - yes

Mullins - yes

 

I feel confident that 12 current 25  man players will not be with us in 3 years and another 8 or so may or may not. Pretty sure around 20 of our 25 man roster in 2021 are not currently playing on the major league squad today....hard to hold what this team is doing against the 2021 team. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

Realistically, I think the earliest we could see a winning team here again is 2023.    While it could happen then, a fair number of things would have to go right for that to happen, so I voted for 2024 or later.   And I pray I’m wrong.   

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