2019 Rotation?

[TonySoprano]

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Bundy, Cobb, and Cashner can be penciled in to the 2019 rotation, but is there any hope on the immediate horizon? Let’s take a look at the team’s current options to fill the last two spots in the rotation next spring.

Long shots: Jimmy Yacabonis, Yefry Ramírez, Hunter Harvey

Yacabonis made the switch from reliever to starting pitcher this year, which was surprising considering he was exclusively a reliever in college and had never made a start for any O’s minor league affiliate before this season. He’s taken plenty of rides on the Norfolk shuttle in 2017 and 2018 and has had little major league success. He’s still very much a work in progress.

Ramírez impressed at Triple A this year, but the results haven’t translated to the majors yet. In nine starts and four relief appearances, he has a 6.19 ERA, a 5.20 FIP, and is walking 13.1 percent of batters. He does get swings and misses, so there’s still some potential, but he most likely projects as a swingman type.

Simply put, Harvey can’t stay healthy. He hasn’t thrown more than 32 ⅓ innings in any minor league season since 2014, and he was most recently shut down with elbow discomfort. He also dealt with a shoulder injury earlier in the season, and he had Tommy John surgery in 2016. Harvey is an intriguing talent, so there’s always a chance the O’s could promote him if he’s ever able to put an extended healthy stretch together. But he’s barely pitched at all above Double-A ball, so his future remains up in the air.

Interesting, but more work needed: Dean Kremer, Dillon Tate, Bruce Zimmermann

In a late August scouting update for 2080 Baseball, Adam McInturff describedKremer as a strike-thrower who is “likely within a year of being big league ready.” Kremer pitched in Double A for the first time in 2018, so he will likely start the year again in Bowie and could either be moved up to Triple A if he keeps finding success or, if the Orioles deem him ready, receives a surprise promotion directly to Baltimore next summer.

Unlike Kremer, Dillon Tate will be eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft next year, which means he’ll need to be added to the O’s 40-man roster. He’s been pitching in Double A since 2017, and there’s a question of whether he’ll be able to miss enough bats to be effective at the major-league level. After coming over from the Yankees in the Zach Britton trade, Tate threw about 40 innings for Bowie and posted a strikeout percentage of only 12 percent. That’s just a small sample of innings, of course, but it would be nice to see a leap forward soon from the former first-round draft pick.

The O’s added Bruce Zimmermann, a 23-year-old lefty, in the deal that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves. Zimmermann is nowhere to be found on MLB Pipeline’s list of the top 30 O’s prospects, but he has a couple things going for him: he’s left-handed, and he’s put up pretty good results since he was drafted in 2017. He may only project as a back-end starter or reliever at best, but the O’s have the ability to give fringe starting pitching options a chance.

On the cusp: Luis Ortiz and Keegan Akin

Ortiz, who’s 22 and received a late-season promotion, is yet another pitcher who projects as a back-end arm. McInturff noted that Ortiz, like many of the O’s trade deadline acquisitions, is a “high-floor/low-ceiling type, but a safe bet to contribute” soon. Ortiz could be an option to break camp on the 25-man roster next spring.

Barring an injury, Akin is a good bet to receive a major league promotion next year. The 23-year-old lefty is an “aggressive strike-thrower” who mixes his pitches well and has yet to repeat a level in the O’s system in his three minor league seasons. Akin is close to major-league ready, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start the year in Triple-A Norfolk or even in the O’s rotation.

Early guesses: David Hess and Josh Rogers

These two options aren’t as exciting as Ortiz and Akin. Hess has had a bumpy ride in his rookie season (5.17 ERA, 5.45 FIP in 87 innings). He’s looked good and bad at times, which fits with the back-end starter theme of this group. Out of all the returning starters, he’s thrown the fourth-most innings, and he figures to get a rotation nod early as the O’s continue to figure out if his future is as a starter or reliever.

Because he doesn’t have amazing stuff and miss enough bats, it seems almost inevitable that Rogers will have to move to the bullpen. But since he’s left-handed and has posted decent numbers in the minors, the O’s are already getting a look at him. In his first two major league starts, he pitched well enough, throwing 5-plus innings and allowing a few runs in each. On Sunday, though, he failed to make it out of the second inning and gave up six runs. For someone like Rogers who pitches to contact, he has little room for error (especially when pitching in front of a defense of the Orioles’ caliber). Still, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Rogers get an extended look at the start of 2019 to see how things go.

Matt Kremnitzer - https://theathletic.com/515942/2018/09/10/scouting-the-orioles-next-generation-of-pitching

[Aristotelian]

I've said it before, but Bleier should be under consideration. Fry and Scott can handle matchups and long relief.

[LA2]

Not much hope here, especially since I've lost a lot of hope for Bundy (not to mention, Harvey). The assessment of Tate is not nearly as high as some had written earlier!

What was the magic sauce that the Orioles used in 2014? Where can it be found again?

[jamalshw]

I think John Means could be an option as well. I think we'll see Hess and either Means or Rogers at the start of the year. I'd like to see Akin and Ortiz in the Majors by season's end.

[Dipper9]

I think we're gonna have a hard time matching our 2018 win total next year. We can be the first team to ever break out own record for worst season in Major League History.  And yes, I really do think it could be that bad. 

[webbrick2010]

How can u include Bundy?

[Matt Bennett]

If 2019 isn't the year to see what Means, Ramirez, Hess, Rogers can do....what year will be? None likely project as major league starters but hell neither did Mike Wright and somehow he managed to trot out there for four years(two on competitive teams).

Ortiz, Akin, Tate, Kremer will probably be here at some point but none have much if any experience in AAA. 

Trade Cashner, Cobb, and Bundy as soon someone will take them.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

How can u include Bundy?

I’d say there’s about a 75% chance he starts next year in the rotation.   He’s been miserable for several months, but has shown himself to be pretty decent in the past.    Hopefully a winter’s rest and a new pitching coach can fix whatever’s broken.    

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say there’s about a 75% chance he starts next year in the rotation.   He’s been miserable for several months, but has shown himself to be pretty decent in the past.    Hopefully a winter’s rest and a new pitching coach can fix whatever’s broken.    

Unfortunately that's what O's management will do, ignore the preponderance of evidence and hope that things will magically fix themselves. IMHO he is done and it will be a waste of several million to tender him a contract. In a few short years and at the ripe old age of 25 he has lost 6mph on his fastball. And yet the party line is that he is not injured? SMH

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Unfortunately that's what O's management will do, ignore the preponderance of evidence and hope that things will magically fix themselves. IMHO he is done and it will be a waste of several million to tender him a contract. In a few short years and at the ripe old age of 25 he has lost 6mph on his fastball. And yet the party line is that he is not injured? SMH

So you’d non-tender him?   What do you think we’d owe him in arbitration after a season like this one?   My guess would be $2.75 mm.

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So you’d non-tender him?   What do you think we’d owe him in arbitration after a season like this one?   My guess would be $2.75 mm.

Yep I'd non-tender him. He's another Matusz, the O's will try to argue he is useful out of the bullpen but he will be way overpaid to be a very mediocre reliever on a 100 loss team.

How much money was wasted year after year in arbitration to Matusz, to be a loogy who really only specialized in getting out David Ortiz.

Bundy  doesn't fit where the O's are.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yep I'd non-tender him. He's another Matusz, the O's will try to argue he is useful out of the bullpen but he will be way overpaid to be a very mediocre reliever on a 100 loss team.

How much money was wasted year after year in arbitration to Matusz, to be a loogy who really only specialized in getting out David Ortiz.

Bundy  doesn't fit where the O's are.

What's funny, aside from you non-tendering him in the first place, is you think he has no trade value.

I'm not saying he'd bring back a lot right now, but he'd bring back something, so you don't non-tender him even if you don't think he's a piece of the future.

[webbrick2010]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

What's funny, aside from you non-tendering him in the first place, is you think he has no trade value. 

I'm not saying he'd bring back a lot right now, but he'd bring back something, so you don't non-tender him even if you don't think he's a piece of the future.

Okay so trade him before the tender date, I'd love to see what could be had for him

An arb eligible pitcher likely to get 2+ million coming off a season where he gives up 2.2 HR/9innings and has an ERA+ of 76

yep I can't wait to see what he brings in a trade.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yep I'd non-tender him. He's another Matusz, the O's will try to argue he is useful out of the bullpen but he will be way overpaid to be a very mediocre reliever on a 100 loss team.

How much money was wasted year after year in arbitration to Matusz, to be a loogy who really only specialized in getting out David Ortiz.

Bundy  doesn't fit where the O's are.

 

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What's funny, aside from you non-tendering him in the first place, is you think he has no trade value.

I'm not saying he'd bring back a lot right now, but he'd bring back something, so you don't non-tender him even if you don't think he's a piece of the future.

I’d certainly ride it out with Bundy for another year.    I’d rather waste $2.75 mm on a pitcher who has another bad year than give up a guy who might recover and be worth multiple times what he’s paid and have a good bit of trade value. 

[webbrick2010]

Just now, Frobby said:

 

I’d certainly ride it out with Bundy for another year.    I’d rather waste $2.75 mm on a pitcher who has another bad year than give up a guy who might recover and be worth multiple times what he’s paid and have a good bit of trade value. 

I'm sure they will

ride it out with Bundy, ride it out with Beckham, ride it out Nunez, ride it out with .... Hell bring back Buck and DD, and Brady... keep riding it out.