How Long is the Road to Contention?

[weams]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know why people are so interested in when we'll be good again and putting a timeframe on it.  It'll happen when it happens.  Could be next year (probably not) or 5 years from now.  No way to tell.

It'll happen when it happens.  

I believe the only way it will be too long, is if someone tries to may it too short of a downturn. 

[drjohnnyfeva]

I tend to think a decade.  I don't see this ownership group having really learned any lessons since the last time they were dedicated to a rebuild.  I think we lucked out finally finding a manager and GM that worked well enough together to get some goodness out of a core of guys and some odd fill-ins.  I think once the ownership began meddling as they have been known to do in the past, things changed for the worse very quickly.  I think my kids - oldest is in 5th grade, will be in the last years of HS or into college by the time this team is even decent again.  Sad, but I think that's where we are.  2026 (being generous) or longer.  I have no faith in the Angeloses to stick to a plan or to understand how to relinquish control to people who know better.  

[weams]

 

[spiritof66]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

You don’t know why people are so interested?    Uh, I think it’s because we want to know how long we’re going to have to put up with watching crappy baseball.    We know how long it lasted last time and we’d like to know if we stand a chance of having a shorter wait this time around.   

I certainly agree that nobody actually knows how long it will take.   

I'd like to know for that reason, too, but don't think these predictions mean much --  other than to point out that things aren't going to get turned around overnight.

There are way too many unknowns for me to have any idea when this team will, or should, get back in contention.over the next few years.

What kind of production will we get from the Mullins/Mountcastle/Hays/Stewart generation? Which young pitchers will break, and which ones will become reliable starters?  How valuable will the upcoming high draft picks be? 

The Orioles have talked a little -- though not much and not lately -- about what they want to do to rebuild, but so far all they've shown is that they are eager to reduce payroll. Is it just talk? How will Peter Angelos's sons act when it comes to doing the right things? Will they stay the course through a few years of bad teams that don't turn a big profit? What will they spend on international development, scouting, strengthening analytics, etc.? And when will those things start? Can the process start while Peter Angelos still owns the team? When the payroll starts increasing, will the Orioles maintain these investments? 

Who will be the new GM and manager? What value will they bring to the team?  

The ability to contend depends in part on how good the other teams are. What will the other AL East teams be doing in three to five years? To contend, will the Orioles need to win 90 games? 95 games? Or will they have to compete with really strong NYY and/or Boston teams that win 105 or more games? 

That's too much noise for me. All that I feel pretty sure about is that if the Orioles do things right, they will lose a lot of games over the next two years. And if they do things wrong, they will lose a lot of games over the next couple of years. And if they try to do things right but make a lot of mistakes in executing those things, they'll  . .   well, you get the idea. 

[Cumberbundy]

Sign of a good GM, the worst team in baseball and no hope on the horizon. 

[big_sparxx]

A couple of points here.

1) We have no idea if this team has bottomed out yet. If this year is considered to be that point, Next season will be a revelation.

2) Contention implies that there is a plan to get to that point. It's highly improbable and unrealistic to do that.

3) Rebuild can't begin until legacy issues have been dealt with. That includes management as well as those players we are burdened with (Chris Davis) that keep us tied to this version of history. In a perfect world Angelos finds a way to eat the majority of Davis' contract and we part ways amicably. Not going to happen.

4) There are no building blocks, only assets. Assets that can and should be utilized to get us better prospects and better depth organizationally. I see many people thinking that the current crop will be our future. Don't hold your breath. If we get new management, our priorities may shift dramatically. 

5) Last point, If we are building through youth and our minors system, it's going to take that much longer. Obviously we don't have a great farm, and in order for the major league team to benefit, the minors have to be profitable.. This organization needs complete overhaul. Our issues are compounded by being in the same division as the MFY and the Sawx. 

This is going to take a lot longer than anyone can possibly imagine.

[nadecir]

The Orioles are 25 games behind the 4th place team in the AL East, the Blue Jays.  The Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays have far superior farm systems than the Orioles.  The Red Sox might win 110 games this season.

Unfortunately, the question to ask is how many years will it take for the Orioles to get out of the AL East basement.  Contention seems too far away to even hazard a guess.

[osfan83]

3 hours ago, big_sparxx said:

A couple of points here.

1) We have no idea if this team has bottomed out yet. If this year is considered to be that point, Next season will be a revelation.

2) Contention implies that there is a plan to get to that point. It's highly improbable and unrealistic to do that.

3) Rebuild can't begin until legacy issues have been dealt with. That includes management as well as those players we are burdened with (Chris Davis) that keep us tied to this version of history. In a perfect world Angelos finds a way to eat the majority of Davis' contract and we part ways amicably. Not going to happen.

4) There are no building blocks, only assets. Assets that can and should be utilized to get us better prospects and better depth organizationally. I see many people thinking that the current crop will be our future. Don't hold your breath. If we get new management, our priorities may shift dramatically. 

5) Last point, If we are building through youth and our minors system, it's going to take that much longer. Obviously we don't have a great farm, and in order for the major league team to benefit, the minors have to be profitable.. This organization needs complete overhaul. Our issues are compounded by being in the same division as the MFY and the Sawx. 

This is going to take a lot longer than anyone can possibly imagine.

25 years......start scouting the maternity wards, because that's where the next competitive Orioles players are currently playing. 

[nate22]

[Tx Oriole]

22 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I'd like to know for that reason, too, but don't think these predictions mean much --  other than to point out that things aren't going to get turned around overnight.

There are way too many unknowns for me to have any idea when this team will, or should, get back in contention.over the next few years.

What kind of production will we get from the Mullins/Mountcastle/Hays/Stewart generation? Which young pitchers will break, and which ones will become reliable starters?  How valuable will the upcoming high draft picks be? 

The Orioles have talked a little -- though not much and not lately -- about what they want to do to rebuild, but so far all they've shown is that they are eager to reduce payroll. Is it just talk? How will Peter Angelos's sons act when it comes to doing the right things? Will they stay the course through a few years of bad teams that don't turn a big profit? What will they spend on international development, scouting, strengthening analytics, etc.? And when will those things start? Can the process start while Peter Angelos still owns the team? When the payroll starts increasing, will the Orioles maintain these investments? 

Who will be the new GM and manager? What value will they bring to the team?  

The ability to contend depends in part on how good the other teams are. What will the other AL East teams be doing in three to five years? To contend, will the Orioles need to win 90 games? 95 games? Or will they have to compete with really strong NYY and/or Boston teams that win 105 or more games? 

That's too much noise for me. All that I feel pretty sure about is that if the Orioles do things right, they will lose a lot of games over the next two years. And if they do things wrong, they will lose a lot of games over the next couple of years. And if they try to do things right but make a lot of mistakes in executing those things, they'll  . .   well, you get the idea. 

Who picks the next GM? Seems John and Lou will need help someone not named Brady.

[Cumberbundy]

If they all hit:

C - Free agent/Cumberland/Sisco

1B - Free Agent/Curran/Mancini

2B - Villar

SS - Witt Jr/Hall/Carmona

3B - Mountcastle/Encarnacion 

CF - Mullins/Mesa 

RF - Hays

LF - Diaz

DH - Mancini/Mountcastle

SP - Bundy, Hall, SonGuez, Harvey, Lowther, Kremer, Tate, Akin, Yefry

Closer - Scott (should go to AA or AAA and start all year, but won’t)

Add #1 draft picks in 2020 and 2021.

2022 is the year of the Birds.

 

[Matt Bennett]

When will the Orioles be good again? If the difference between the long stretch of misery that was 1998-2011 and the admirably good window from 2012-2016 is any indication, the Orioles will be good again when the pitching is good again. Was any pundit expecting the Orioles to be

good? Were fans even optimistic? No one expected us to squeak out a wild card. We finished with 93 wins. The difference?...Our pitching became...adequate

 

2011: most runs allowed in baseball by far, 17th most runs scored

2012: 14th most runs allowed in baseball (roughly league average), 15th most runs scored

 

Granted, a little bit of luck contributed to our fortunes. Wasn’t Jim Johnson 100% in save opportunities? I remember we had a remarkable record in extra innings. We finished the year with a +7 run differential and the Pythagorean W-L indicated our record should have been more like 82-80. However, the Orioles got much better as the season went on and were a force to be reckoned with by the end of the season. Throughout the first months of 2012, we finished only 5 games above .500. When August hit, we went 37-18. I think much of this can be attributed to the emergence of a handful of of solid contributors all at approximately the same time.

 

Chris Tillman: 2.93 ERA over 15 starts starting in July

Miguel Gonzalez: 3.25 ERA over 105.1 innings almost exclusively in July

Joe Saunders: 44.2 inning of 3.63 ERA ball in the final month of the season and two well-pitched performances in the playoffs.

Nate McLouth: 12 steals and .777 OPS in LF over season’s final two months

Manny Machado: accumulated 1.6 WAR in 51 games as a 19 year old out of position, debuting on August 9th.

Jim Thome: brought much needed on-base skills with a .254/.348/.396 batting line in the second half for the O’s

Steve Johnson: 2.11 ERA in 38.1 innings including 4 starts almost exclusively in the final two months

Brian Matusz: pushed into the bullpen in August and became a shutdown reliever

Tommy Hunter: pushed into the bullpen in August and became a shutdown reliever

Mark Reynolds: stopped sucking and increased his OPS from .681 to .819 from August 6th to September 8th

 

It was a pretty uninspiring off-season. DD had just been hired. I don’t think the fan base knew what direction the team was heading in. We certainly weren’t tearing everything down. I guess you can say DD inherited the team and put some obvious bandaids on and called it an off-season. Why it worked: The band-aids were effective and we got lucky.

 

Darren O’Day was claimed off waivers for nothing presumably because he threw funny? This was actually before DD was GM.  Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom were acquired for Jeremy Guthrie. DD went international by signing Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei Yin Chen. Wada struggled with injuries but was actually quite good when he got to the majors as a Cub. Luis Ayala was also a solid bullpen signing. Chris Davis who was acquired the year before broke out but Andino, Hardy, Wieters, and Reynolds took offensive steps back.

 

My point? The window opened and closed based on the pitching.

 

2016: 14th most runs allowed, 12th most runs scored

2017: 4th most runs allowed, 16th most runs scored

[foxfield]

On 9/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, Frobby said:

You don’t know why people are so interested?    Uh, I think it’s because we want to know how long we’re going to have to put up with watching crappy baseball.    We know how long it lasted last time and we’d like to know if we stand a chance of having a shorter wait this time around.   

I certainly agree that nobody actually knows how long it will take.   

 

On 9/17/2018 at 2:46 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Yep, but since nobody knows I guess we'll have to wait.

Under Angelos, when the Orioles have made progress, it was because they put good baseball people in charge.  The long nightmare of 14 years and the devastating crash of 2018 have been brought on by Ownership meddling in the management process.  No it should be said, that this of course is the right of ownership.  But the Orioles frequently do this in undermining and dysfunctional ways.  The bottom line is this.  A full rebuild requires patience and intelligence as well as multiple folks on the same page.  Our forward progress has ALWAYS come with more control in the hands of true baseball professionals.  Our misadventures have most frequently been tied to ownership impeding that process.

What fans (OH) want to know is who will lead this rebuild?  And what many already understand is this.  While it is very important to know who is going to lead this process, the real important thing is whether or not the structure going forward will continue to allow people to exist in a vacuum without accountability to the leader of the rebuild.  It seems simple to understand that, but as we have seen for a long long time, this ownership simply see's itself as smarter than everyone else.  The hope is that the sons of Peter Angelos do.  If Roch is correct and the only untouchable person in our leadership trio is Brady.  Well it's hard to be confident in the future unless Brady is given full control.

We can blame Dan or Buck or we can defend them as being affected by the other.  Regardless of the point of view, it is nearly impossible to not say that these two guys are smart baseball guys.  It seems to me that going forward all three should be given the opportunity to use their talents elsewhere.  But it is troubling to think that if anyone should survive it would be Brady.  I like Brady, I don't think he would be wise choice but it's not my team.  If Orioles are going to keep him and not elevate him to full charge of the rebuild, it will simply be doubling down on a system of back fighting and double dealing that have hindered the team throughout Angelos' ownership.

I cant wait to hear the coming announcements on the future....and who will lead it.

 

[Cumberbundy]

Mullins, Wynns, and Stewart nearly beat a healthy Yankees squad all by themselves. 

 

[FanSince88]

A friend asked me this the other day.  Obviously speculative.  But I think they will.  However, they will lose the WS because they're the Orioles.  What do you guys think?