Where do you draw "the line" for trading away performers

[BohKnowsBmore]

Obviously the situation is developing and this will depend on a lot of things that are yet to happen, but as of now where do you draw the line for trading away current performers?  This basically boils down to how you identify players that will be a part of a future contending Orioles team and those that won't.

For me, I think the trickiest or sort of "median" case is that of Trey Mancini.  After 2019, he will have three arb-eligible seasons before hitting FA.  It's possible that he could be around for two years of competitive Orioles baseball (2021 and 2022) depending on how other things shake out, but he may have more value as a trade chip if he ends up regaining .800+ OPS form this season (higher is better, obviously).  I would think you would have to consider trading him at the 2020 deadline to open room for other guys to play and high with 2.5 years of control remaining.

If this is a "Why Not?" season, then I'm not as interested in this question, but I am not ready to change expectations based on a good 4-game performance by the team. Interested to hear where you all draw the line for future contributors vs. trade chips.  Also, this can be different for different players/positions.  In the OF, for example, you may be willing to ship guys out faster due to the relative surplus of guys in the minors who should be coming up over the next two seasons (i.e. Stewart, Hays, Diaz, McKenna).  Interested to hear those distinctions as well.

[Can_of_corn]

I'll flip Mancini in a heartbeat, he's 27, by the time the O's could be in contention he'll be on the wrong side of both the age and cost matrix.

Moving him also frees up a spot for Mountcastle.  He can DH while Davis is at first base.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll flip Mancini in a heartbeat, he's 27, by the time the O's could be in contention he'll be on the wrong side of both the age and cost matrix.

Moving him also frees up a spot for Mountcastle.  He can DH while Davis is at first base.

So if he's an easy one for you, what framework do you use to evaluate other potential cases?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

So if he's an easy one for you, what framework do you use to evaluate other potential cases?

Anyone with a full year of service time on the books is a potential trading block is my initial starting point.

[oriole]

I’d trade anyone if someone is offering a solid return. Prospect for prospect trades seem fairly rare so I’m not worried too much about that hypothetical. But Mancini falls in the definite trade bait category for me. I just don’t expect anyone to offer a whole lot even if he is hitting well. Right handed bat only players are not particularly hard to come by. 

[WalkWithElias]

"The line" is if they aren't going to return value. Mancini will be a tricky case. He is going to have to really rake to bring back much in the way of a prospects package. He's a right-handed 1B/DH who regressed in his second season after a strong rookie campaign. Teams aren't jumping for those types of players. He's cheap and by all accounts a great guy in the locker room. I don't think you trade him for a few lottery tickets as long as he's inexpensive. 

 

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

"The line" is if they aren't going to return value. Mancini will be a tricky case. He is going to have to really rake to bring back much in the way of a prospects package. He's a right-handed 1B/DH who regressed in his second season after a strong rookie campaign. Teams aren't jumping for those types of players. He's cheap and by all accounts a great guy in the locker room. I don't think you trade him for a few lottery tickets as long as he's inexpensive. 

 

Yeah, let's say he rebounds to his 2017 numbers.   That's very solid and might make him the best hitter on the team.   But what does it really bring in trade?   I don't think he brings a huge haul.   And that's if he does it all season.   If he's doing it on July 31, then it won't have been for a full season, probably even less.

I doubt he brings enough in a July 31 deal to make it worthwhile.   Certainly something to explore in the offseason.   [Like everyone, I'd rather get rid of Davis than Mancini if the goal is freeing up a 1B or DH spot for someone like Mountcastle.   We'll have to see where we are on the "get rid of Davis" plan this offseason.

[NCRaven]

From our 40 man, I'd trade anyone that I didn't believe was a real part of the future and for a reasonable return (i.e., not trading just to get rid of them, other than Trumbo and Davis who are basically untradeable, anyway).  So:

Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Givens, Karns, Villar, and Mancini are people that could have value and that I would trade.  Would I trade Araujo?  Sure, but who would want him - that's why some names aren't here.  Just don't think that they have value.  Others are still young enough to hang onto.

[WalkWithElias]

Cobb, Bundy, Cashner, Givens have the most potential value, but all would have to perform comparable to their best seasons to bring back anything worthwhile. 

Villar ranks next on potential value because he could be a boost to many teams looking for disruptive speed, but he'll need to put up numbers near his 2016 season to get that value. 

The challenge with the question of trading players from this roster is there is very little with value. Could Mike Wright turn into a lights out power arm in the bullpen that someone will give something for? Maybe? Could Richard Bleier get it together and become a valuable LOOGY worth a mid-level prospect to a contender? Maybe? 

Evaluating what any player could bring back in return requires us to consider their best-case scenario 2019 performance because nobody has their current value brings back much more than a bag of balls (or maybe some controversial international signing slot money). 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Cobb, Bundy, Cashner, Givens have the most potential value, but all would have to perform comparable to their best seasons to bring back anything worthwhile. 

Villar ranks next on potential value because he could be a boost to many teams looking for disruptive speed, but he'll need to put up numbers near his 2016 season to get that value. 

The challenge with the question of trading players from this roster is there is very little with value. Could Mike Wright turn into a lights out power arm in the bullpen that someone will give something for? Maybe? Could Richard Bleier get it together and become a valuable LOOGY worth a mid-level prospect to a contender? Maybe? 

Evaluating what any player could bring back in return requires us to consider their best-case scenario 2019 performance because nobody has their current value brings back much more than a bag of balls (or maybe some controversial international signing slot money). 

You think Cashner has positive trade value?

I'm not sure anyone picks up Cashner on a ML deal if all they have to do is pay the league minimum.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think Cashner has positive trade value?

I'm not sure anyone picks up Cashner on a ML deal if all they have to do is pay the league minimum.

Let’s see how he’s pitching come July.    That will determine if he has any trade value.    

[WalkWithElias]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think Cashner has positive trade value?

I'm not sure anyone picks up Cashner on a ML deal if all they have to do is pay the league minimum.

Emphasis on "potential." He's a veteran starting pitcher without a guaranteed contract for 2020. If he manages to have an ERA under 4.50 by July, someone might give you a Richie Martin or Drew Jackson level prospect for him that they don't plan on protecting in the offseason anyway. If he continues to be the Cashner we've known in an Orioles' uniform, he's not worth the cleats he's wearing. 

 

[Sanfran327]

43 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone with a full year of service time on the books is a potential trading block is my initial starting point.

I don't like it, but I have to say, I agree with this 100%. Anyone on the MLB roster is either not that good (I don't think we have one viable All Star, personally), or just non-prospect filler because we have to field a 25 man roster. Anyone that can get us a prospect or two in return is fair game to me, and I feel very confident in saying that the only players in this organization that Elias truly cares about are not currently on the MLB roster. 

[wildbillhiccup]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll flip Mancini in a heartbeat, he's 27, by the time the O's could be in contention he'll be on the wrong side of both the age and cost matrix.

Moving him also frees up a spot for Mountcastle.  He can DH while Davis is at first base.

I agree with this. And if I can be so bold as to insert myself into this conversation, I would primarily look at age to determine who is / isn't part of future. And if we happen to have minor league depth at the position that person plays it's just the cherry on top of the Sunday. I honestly don't think a single player on the current MLB roster should be untouchable. Our future, right now, is in the minor leagues. Diaz, Hays, Mountcastle, Sisco, Pop, etc. 

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s see how he’s pitching come July.    That will determine if he has any trade value.    

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's cut by July. He's THAT bad.