Mancini's Future with the O's

[jtschrei]

Trey is a great leader. Like, in the clubhouse, you need guys like him. Everything I read about him before he made the majors was "leader." So to me, he has value that doesn't show up in the WAR. 

On paper, he's a RH bat. He''s maybe a notch above Danny Valencia in his prime. I said it. Hey, I hope Trey proves me wrong and he puts up monster stats this year. I don't think he's a much different hitter than he was last year. 

Bottom line: I think his value is limited as a trade chip. But I really like him on our team. 

Elias will absolutely move him for the right deal. 

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

-.3 rWAR in 2015. 

I always use FWAR, and his worst FWAR was .1 in 2015 with the Orioles. He’s below zero now, but good heavens, so is everyone else on the Red Sox.

[HowAboutThat]

1 minute ago, jtschrei said:

Trey is a great leader. Like, in the clubhouse, you need guys like him. Everything I read about him before he made the majors was "leader." So to me, he has value that doesn't show up in the WAR. 

On paper, he's a RH bat. He''s maybe a notch above Danny Valencia in his prime. I said it. Hey, I hope Trey proves me wrong and he puts up monster stats this year. I don't think he's a much different hitter than he was last year. 

Bottom line: I think his value is limited as a trade chip. But I really like him on our team. 

Elias will absolutely move him for the right deal. 

Danny makes a better comparison.  I always liked and followed Valencia. Except at 1B, his defense was always Keystone Cops, but he hit well.

however, case in point, Danny remains unemployed, and wouldn’t have had a job last year either, except that the Orioles were collecting DH/IB types.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I always use FWAR, and his worst FWAR was .1 in 2015 with the Orioles. He’s below zero now, but good heavens, so is everyone else on the Red Sox.

I didn't think this season was worth mentioning.

Anyway .1 or -.3 he was bad in 2015 and he obviously isn't a consistent offensive performer.

You are right that he is more versatile and a superior defender.

I also do agree that Mancini isn't bringing much back, teams don't covet that style of player in today's game.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

Trey is a great leader. Like, in the clubhouse, you need guys like him. Everything I read about him before he made the majors was "leader." So to me, he has value that doesn't show up in the WAR. 

On paper, he's a RH bat. He''s maybe a notch above Danny Valencia in his prime. I said it. Hey, I hope Trey proves me wrong and he puts up monster stats this year. I don't think he's a much different hitter than he was last year. 

Bottom line: I think his value is limited as a trade chip. But I really like him on our team. 

Elias will absolutely move him for the right deal. 

I wasn't expecting him to do this so quickly. He's a fan favorite now. The Orioles' best hitter without a doubt. It's going to be tougher than I thought moving him (Villar too), but it's probably the right call. Nobody said it was gonna be easy. 

[DrungoHazewood]

26 minutes ago, Philip said:

Since 2014 he’s never had a negative WAR.

regardless, Pearce offers a more versatile player than Mancini, who has less value because of his defensive flaws. Things may change but at this point, Mancini is more valuable to us.

What a strange comparison.  At Trey Mancini's age (just turned 27) Steve Pearce had 416 plate appearances in the majors and a career OPS (.706) that was lower than Mancini's off year in 2018. 

And Pearce had that one out-of-nowhere +18 year as a defender in 2014, but otherwise is -8 for his career.  He's fair to middling with a glove.  Mancini appears to be a pretty decent first baseman, and an out-of-position outfielder.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't think this season was worth mentioning.

Anyway .1 or -.3 he was bad in 2015 and he obviously isn't a consistent offensive performer.

You are right that he is more versatile and a superior defender.

I also do agree that Mancini isn't bringing much back, teams don't covet that style of player in today's game.

Pearce's seasonal OPS+es starting in 2010: 121, 46, 92, 114, 157, 91, 136, 99, 140.  You know what you're getting with him, either poor, average, or excellent in somewhere between 38 and 383 PAs.

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What a strange comparison.  At Trey Mancini's age (just turned 27) Steve Pearce had 416 plate appearances in the majors and a career OPS (.706) that was lower than Mancini's off year in 2018. 

And Pearce had that one out-of-nowhere +18 year as a defender in 2014, but otherwise is -8 for his career.  He's fair to middling with a glove.  Mancini appears to be a pretty decent first baseman, and an out-of-position outfielder.

On a very good team, Trey would be a nice piece to have, but as the star to carry this team, not so much as.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

On a very good team, Trey would be a nice piece to have, but as the star to carry this team, not so much as.

Is anyone suggesting he's a star to carry the team?  Where is he carrying them, to 63 wins?  Someone has to be the best player on a poor team.

[Just Regular]

I think in factoring whether to sell high in 3 months, you need to consider if guys like him will have added value with next year's 26-man rosters.

If he stays the "can really hit" guy 300-more PA's, I am open to the notion that to hold for the 600 after that to see how a 1000-PA sample size and 26-man rosters help next summer.  This also caters to my sentimental inclination that perhaps he can be the "guy who has been here through all of it" character on the next good team in 2022.

[Moose Milligan]

If he rakes this year, I think we should keep him.  I can't imagine a market for a limited defense guy that would give us a greater return that what he already brings to the table.

He needs to be at 1st, it should be just a matter of a time before he can be.  

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

On a very good team, Trey would be a nice piece to have, but as the star to carry this team, not so much as.

I think Trey is a better piece to have on this team than a very good team.  A very good team probably has a better hitter at first than Trey.  We need someone to cheer on.  

[atomic]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is anyone suggesting he's a star to carry the team?  Where is he carrying them, to 63 wins?  Someone has to be the best player on a poor team.

Like Melvin Mora. 

[mdbdotcom]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

If he rakes this year, I think we should keep him.  I can't imagine a market for a limited defense guy that would give us a greater return that what he already brings to the table.

He needs to be at 1st, it should be just a matter of a time before he can be.  

Right around the time Mountcastle is ready.

[Finisher]

Couple things at play here:

1) Teams are tighter than ever with prospects. Maybe you get a couple fringe prospects for Mancini. There just aren't many DD type GMs out there giving away quality young arms.

2) There's a ridiculous glut of 1B hit first types across baseball at the moment. Just an absolute ton of these guys.