1/10th of the way through O's on pace for 61-101

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Offense is improved with a 4.44 runs per game.

Pitching has been bad with a 6.30 ERA but I think the pitching will improve. 

A starting rotation of Cobb, Cashner, Hess, Means and Bundy or Straily looks pretty good.

A pen of Givens, Fry, Phillips, Yacabonis,  Bundy/Straily, Ramirez and Castro should be pretty good also.

Cobb is expected back during the Twins series which begins Friday. Ramirez pitched well again today and I hope he is up with the O's in about 5 days.   The O's should return to a 7 man pen on about April 24th when they are passed these 18 consecutive  games.

What is your take on the first 16 games and where the O's are headed?

 

 

Cashner, Bundy are bad. The whole rotation is more or less bad.

Phillips and Castro are bad. The pen is the area with the highest variance, so it could end up being competent, but still much to be seen, and only Fry and Means have been good overall.

the offense is terrible.

the defense is generally excellent, but the “baseball smarts” seems much better. Many fewer TOOTBLANS.

I think we can end up in the mid-high 60s, and will be disappointed if we don’t.

[sportsfan8703]

Givens and Villar have trade value. We’d have to pay all of Cashner’s contract to get back anything. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

All the pitching doing better means is that they will bring better  trade value in July.   The O's do not seems like they will be in the wild card race even with improved pitching so the sell off will still happen in July.  I think they will lose 100.

I do not think that at the moment we have anybody with any trade value, with the possible exception of Means or Fry, And I think Seattle or Minnesota would love to have either one.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think Cobb and Cashner have value beyond their contracts or do you consider salary relief a good return?

Bleier has no value.

In July contending teams will be looking for starters.  Happens every year.  If Cobb pitches this season like he did in the 2nd of last season there will be teams that will offer good prospects for him.

 Cashner has an option year after his season.  His fastball looks much better this season.  I think Brocail has him pitching better.  He will likely improve his ERA into the mid 4.00s.   If he does that I think the O's will get offers for him.  The talent in return will probably be a good young reliever or young position player.

If  Bleier gets healthy and pitches like he has the last two years he will be in demand in July. The return will be a young player with some potential.   He is 32 and the O's will probably be willing to part with him in spite of him being cheap.

JMO

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

In July contending teams will be looking for starters.  Happens every year.  If Cobb pitches this season like he did in the 2nd of last season there will be teams that will offer good prospects for him.

 Cashner has an option year after his season.  His fastball looks much better this season.  I think Brocail has him pitching better.  He will likely improve his ERA into the mid 4.00s.   If he does that I think the O's will get offers for him.  The talent in return will probably be a good young reliever or young position player.

If  Bleier gets healthy and pitches like he has the last two years he will be in demand in July. The return will be a young player with some potential.   He is 32 and the O's will probably be willing to part with him in spite of him being cheap.

JMO

But he already isn't.  He's been injured.

As for Cashner's fastball, I'm not seeing much improvement.  I don't think you can get a good anything for him.  Some team might be willing to eat his salary.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=488768&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/14/2019

Bleier might have had some trade value when he was putting up impossible numbers but he's been hurt and now he's out of faerie dust.  Teams aren't willing to pony up prospects for bullpen guys pitching beyond their peripherals.  He might go, the O's might get something, but it won't be "something".

JMO

 

[ChuckS]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In July contending teams will be looking for starters.  Happens every year.  If Cobb pitches this season like he did in the 2nd of last season there will be teams that will offer good prospects for him.

 Cashner has an option year after his season.  His fastball looks much better this season.  I think Brocail has him pitching better.  He will likely improve his ERA into the mid 4.00s.   If he does that I think the O's will get offers for him.  The talent in return will probably be a good young reliever or young position player.

If  Bleier gets healthy and pitches like he has the last two years he will be in demand in July. The return will be a young player with some potential.   He is 32 and the O's will probably be willing to part with him in spite of him being cheap.

JMO

Why would a team be willing to offer good prospects for him when they weren't willing to sign him for his asking price last offseason when it would cost them zero good prospects?  I think you are in fantasy land here.  He's owed 14 mil in 2020 and 15 mil in 2021. 

You think a team is going to give up good prospects for a pitcher with a mid-4's ERA who is owed that much money. What did we get for Kevin Gausman again? And that's not at 14 and 15 mil a season. 

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Cobb and Cashner would have to start pitching like All-Stars to bring back any kind of return.  They are at best, salary dumps.  More likely, no one is willing to take them on at all because of their contracts.  Bleier has no value and I asked you "other than Givens....." 

I don't see any reason to think the pitching will be pretty good before or after any July trades.  I think that's a bit delusional given the evidence at hand. 

Are you watching the games?

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Why would a team be willing to offer good prospects for him when they weren't willing to sign him for his asking price last offseason when it would cost them zero good prospects?  I think you are in fantasy land here.  He's owed 14 mil in 2020 and 15 mil in 2021. 

You think a team is going to give up good prospects for a pitcher with a mid-4's ERA who is owed that much money. What did we get for Kevin Gausman again? And that's not at 14 and 15 mil a season. 

Cobb did cost a draft pick so you could say he would have cost the signing team the equivalent of a good prospect.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he already isn't.  He's been injured.

As for Cashner's fastball, I'm not seeing much improvement.  I don't think you can get a good anything for him.  Some team might be willing to eat his salary.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=488768&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/14/2019

Bleier might have had some trade value when he was putting up impossible numbers but he's been hurt and now he's out of faerie dust.  Teams aren't willing to pony up prospects for bullpen guys pitching beyond their peripherals.  He might go, the O's might get something, but it won't be "something".

JMO

 

Cobb has missed two starts so far.  That will not effect his trade value if he starts this weekend and take his turn through July.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Why would a team be willing to offer good prospects for him when they weren't willing to sign him for his asking price last offseason when it would cost them zero good prospects?  I think you are in fantasy land here.  He's owed 14 mil in 2020 and 15 mil in 2021. 

You think a team is going to give up good prospects for a pitcher with a mid-4's ERA who is owed that much money. What did we get for Kevin Gausman again? And that's not at 14 and 15 mil a season. 

You are confusing what I said.  I said Cobb will bring back good prospects if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half last season.  That is not mid 4's.  His ERA in the 2nd half was 2.56 in 11 starts.  He also put up numbers like that in 2014 before his TJ surgery.

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Are you watching the games?

Are you?  Cashner is terrible.  9 strikeouts in 20 innings against 11 walks.  His FIP is 6.44.  1.623 WHIP.  

That's not a great start.  I think those numbers come down a little bit, but I don't see why a winning team would add a guy like that to their rotation.  

[bpilktree]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In July contending teams will be looking for starters.  Happens every year.  If Cobb pitches this season like he did in the 2nd of last season there will be teams that will offer good prospects for him.

 Cashner has an option year after his season.  His fastball looks much better this season.  I think Brocail has him pitching better.  He will likely improve his ERA into the mid 4.00s.   If he does that I think the O's will get offers for him.  The talent in return will probably be a good young reliever or young position player.

If  Bleier gets healthy and pitches like he has the last two years he will be in demand in July. The return will be a young player with some potential.   He is 32 and the O's will probably be willing to part with him in spite of him being cheap.

JMO

This is the key look at what trades for marginal starters have brought back.  James Shields was traded by the Padres to the White Sox with still a lot money and he was pitching just average.  The Padres got some guy named Tatis Jr.  who is now the number 2 prospect in the game.   Now I am not expecting that type return for Cobb but usually if you want a better prospect you can get a guy in the low minors that is farther away but has lots of upside.  We don’t need prospects that are ready now or next year so we can look at lower levels with more upside.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you?  Cashner is terrible.  9 strikeouts in 20 innings against 11 walks.  His FIP is 6.44.  1.623 WHIP.  

That's not a great start.  I think those numbers come down a little bit, but I don't see why a winning team would add a guy like that to their rotation.  

Cashner is 3-0 with a 3.31 ERA in April.  He was bad in the opener which I can just throw out because he has improved since  and I am projecting what he will continue to do.   His fastball looks much better to me.  And yes I am watching the games unlike many that are saying they are not.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Cashner is 3-0 with a 3.31 ERA in April.  He was bad in the opener which I can just throw out because he has improved since  and I am projecting what he will continue to do.   His fastball looks much better to me.  And yes I am watching the games unlike many that are saying they are not.

Did you look at the link I provided?

[thezeroes]

Supply and Demand.  Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Texas, LAA, Possibly Detroit and CHW may all be Sellers at the deadline.  That is just in the AL.  Given that we may be talking 21 or more starters and 40ish relievers available, why would the Orioles be more valuable than the others???