Maybe Givens is not a closer

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Unless he turns things around, Givens won't help the team or bring back anything in a trade. It's important to try to see whether he can pitch effectively and just isn't doing so, and if that's the case get him doing that again.

As part of that effort, I think it's important to try to separate Givens as a pitcher from Givens as a  closer. One way, the best way IMO, to do that would be to try Givens as an opener at least three or four times weeks, pitching a couple of innings, 40 pitches or so per start. That way he'll be pitching regularly, facing good hitters, and starting innings with the bases empty in low-pressure situations.

I, for one, would be interested in seeing how he performs in those situations. If he's successful, that would suggest that there's a problem with him closing. If he's not throwing strikes and getting hit hard when he does, that's a different problem. Then you go from there in deciding whether he can close and in deciding whether it's possible to build his trade value.

Givens is best suited as a matchup reliever. Multiple inning opener wouldnt be an optimal use IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 5/26/2019 at 10:05 AM, Can_of_corn said:

But closer /=/ highest leverage.

Usually it is.  For example, look at the average leverage index of all pitchers (min 40 innings) in 2018.  Of the top 25 in LI, 21 of them had 10 or more saves and more than half had 20 or more saves.  The median LI of pitchers with 10+ saves was about 1.6.  The median LI of relievers with 10 or fewer saves was about 1.00. 

All six pitchers with an LI greater than 2.00 had 32 or more saves.  In modern baseball closers have the highest leverage.

Could you theoretically construct usage patterns specifically so that non-closers have a higher LI than closers?  Perhaps.  But nobody does, probably because quickly warming up your best reliever only when the other team has two on and nobody out in a one-run game is logistically unworkable.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, stillofan said:

Why does every team have to have a closer?  If a guy is pitching ok, why take him out?  Unless you have a lights out bullpen, every time you bring in another pitcher, there is a risk that he might not have his stuff.  That risk is really high for the Orioles' bullpen.

The Orioles were up a run going to the bottom of the ninth.  Givens is the team's best reliever.  What justification would there be for not using him as the closer in that situation?

The Orioles have a bunch of random arms in the bullpen.  The odds of them giving up a run or two in the 9th have to be around 50%.  If you have one guy who's a little better you're much more likely to win than to leave another replacement-level arm out there because he happened to retire the last three guys in a row.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Usually it is.  For example, look at the average leverage index of all pitchers (min 40 innings) in 2018.  Of the top 25 in LI, 21 of them had 10 or more saves and more than half had 20 or more saves.  The median LI of pitchers with 10+ saves was about 1.6.  The median LI of relievers with 10 or fewer saves was about 1.00. 

All six pitchers with an LI greater than 2.00 had 32 or more saves.  In modern baseball closers have the highest leverage.

Could you theoretically construct usage patterns specifically so that non-closers have a higher LI than closers?  Perhaps.  But nobody does, probably because quickly warming up your best reliever only when the other team has two on and nobody out in a one-run game is logistically unworkable.

My thought process is if a high leverage situation shows up before the 9th use the "closer".  Obviously the logistics of getting someone up and warmed safely takes precedence.  I'd also look at thinks like bringing in the closer in the 8th for 4-6 instead of saving them for 7-9 in the ninth.  Also no using closers for three runs saves unless they need work.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My thought process is if a high leverage situation shows up before the 9th use the "closer".  Obviously the logistics of getting someone up and warmed safely takes precedence.  I'd also look at thinks like bringing in the closer in the 8th for 4-6 instead of saving them for 7-9 in the ninth.  Also no using closers for three runs saves unless they need work.

I'd use the closer for the 9th inning of any game that's -1 to +2.  Maybe the 8th of those -1 and tied games. Up three in the 9th and you'd win more than half of the time with a position player pitching.