2019 38th round pick (1128): Ben Pedersen - RHP - Marshall HS (MN)

[Three Run Homer]

It looks like the O's have about $1 million to play with even if they sign Watson for slot.   Would that be enough to get Pedersen?  

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

It looks like the O's have about $1 million to play with even if they sign Watson for slot.   Would that be enough to get Pedersen?  

It's about 350k, so they could offer 475k if they don't use some of the room to go overslot on Daschbach or others. 

[Big O]

14 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's about 350k, so they could offer 475k if they don't use some of the room to go overslot on Daschbach or others. 

Does that include if they went up to the 105% of the allotted money?

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, Big O said:

Does that include if they went up to the 105% of the allotted money?

No, here's my reasoning. 

For a guy to make it to the 30+ round range, they must value their college commitment more than a pro team values them. So say Pederson (this is completely speculative) wants 750k, while teams have him pegged as a 5th to 6th round talent, 300k to 400k. So in that case, yeah you could imagine them paying him more than their valuation offering the 475k (75 to 175k over their valuation). But let's say Pederson is firm to the 750k ask. So now to sign him, you have to use 275k over the slot values and that's taxed at 75%, so that's 480k or so in addition to the 75 to 175k over their valuation they intially offered.

So then the choice is do you spend about 1M dollars on a player you have a 5th to 6th round valuation on which is over a half a million in overpay according to your valuation. 

[Luke-OH]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If it came down to a choice, I'd rather go for the HS pitcher than the slugging, likely 1B.  

I don't know enough about Pederson to make that call. I know Daschbach would be good org depth and have a much higher probability of providing some level of MLB contribution. 

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

No, here's my reasoning. 

For a guy to make it to the 30+ round range, they must value their college commitment more than a pro team values them. So say Pederson (this is completely speculative) wants 750k, while teams have him pegged as a 5th to 6th round talent, 300k to 400k. So in that case, yeah you could imagine them paying him more than their valuation offering the 475k (75 to 175k over their valuation). But let's say Pederson is firm to the 750k ask. So now to sign him, you have to use 275k over the slot values and that's taxed at 75%, so that's 480k or so in addition to the 75 to 175k over their valuation they intially offered.

So then the choice is do you spend about 1M dollars on a players you have a 5th to 6th round valuation on which is over a half a million in overpay according to your valuation. 

Great explanation. Really spells out what it would cost with tax included versus value. 

Sounds like the next domino is what will Watson sign for. If we could save another 200k that would give us 550k of wiggle room. Then we could offer one single HS player 675k if we wanted to without paying a tax. That at least makes the decision tough on the HS player. 

Lots of questions,

What will Watson sign for?

What will Dashbach/Roth sign for?

It looks like no matter what we’ll be able to offer Pederson(or one of the HS) 1 million if we wanted to. It could get expensive as @Luke-OH has pointed out with value vs. tax cost.

I’ll raise a new question... is it better value to sign a 17-18 y o HS kid in the USA to that money versus a 16-17 y o kid from the Dominican?  The USA kids have been heavily scouted, recruited, and have some stats to look at. 

[LookinUp]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't know enough about Pederson to make that call. I know Daschbach would be good org depth and have a much higher probability of providing some level of MLB contribution. 

My personal preference is to take the high school kids with ML upside over the college junior who couldn't make the top 10 rounds of the draft, assuming $ is equal.

I don't know Daschbach from Adam, but what must his story be to justify paying him? Did he just price himself out of the top 10 rounds? Does he not see himself as org depth? 

[Big O]

20 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

No, here's my reasoning. 

For a guy to make it to the 30+ round range, they must value their college commitment more than a pro team values them. So say Pederson (this is completely speculative) wants 750k, while teams have him pegged as a 5th to 6th round talent, 300k to 400k. So in that case, yeah you could imagine them paying him more than their valuation offering the 475k (75 to 175k over their valuation). But let's say Pederson is firm to the 750k ask. So now to sign him, you have to use 275k over the slot values and that's taxed at 75%, so that's 480k or so in addition to the 75 to 175k over their valuation they intially offered.

So then the choice is do you spend about 1M dollars on a player you have a 5th to 6th round valuation on which is over a half a million in overpay according to your valuation. 

Makes sense

[Big O]

So I'm gonna say, based on Luke's post, we're looking to see if one of these 6 hs kids at the bottom of the draft will take $500k. Just summarizing in my mind. 

So which one is most likely to take it? 

[Number5]

On ‎6‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 12:02 PM, weams said:

Jon thinks none. 

Jon was right.

[weams]

31 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Jon was right.

Jon was right

[Obando]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Jon was right

Right about what?  Please elaborate.

[sportsfan8703]

On 6/24/2019 at 11:46 PM, Luke-OH said:

No, here's my reasoning. 

For a guy to make it to the 30+ round range, they must value their college commitment more than a pro team values them. So say Pederson (this is completely speculative) wants 750k, while teams have him pegged as a 5th to 6th round talent, 300k to 400k. So in that case, yeah you could imagine them paying him more than their valuation offering the 475k (75 to 175k over their valuation). But let's say Pederson is firm to the 750k ask. So now to sign him, you have to use 275k over the slot values and that's taxed at 75%, so that's 480k or so in addition to the 75 to 175k over their valuation they intially offered.

So then the choice is do you spend about 1M dollars on a player you have a 5th to 6th round valuation on which is over a half a million in overpay according to your valuation. 

Great breakdown @Luke-OH   

Daschbach just signed. I think we have 225k remaining of bonus pool money. 

Hammar hasn’t signed yet. With him being the only non-HS kid left, I imagine that this will happen pretty quickly. I also imagine it will take a little more than 125k. 

Right now we could offer Pederson 340k with no penalty, but Hammar will likely eat into that. 

IIRC correctly, we went overslot for Luke’s boy Adam Stauffer in 2017. We just never saw the numbers. Like Stauffer, Pederson is a big boy. 6’5”. 

Maybe there is a chance, but just wanted to point out that we all forgot about Stauffer and he was selected much higher in 2017. So this might cost the org $1 million, we likely wouldn’t even have Pederson back on our radar until the 2021 season. 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Great breakdown @Luke-OH   

Daschbach just signed. I think we have 225k remaining of bonus pool money. 

Hammar hasn’t signed yet. With him being the only non-HS kid left, I imagine that this will happen pretty quickly. I also imagine it will take a little more than 125k. 

Right now we could offer Pederson 340k with no penalty, but Hammar will likely eat into that. 

IIRC correctly, we went overslot for Luke’s boy Adam Stauffer in 2017. We just never saw the numbers. Like Stauffer, Pederson is a big boy. 6’5”. 

Maybe there is a chance, but just wanted to point out that we all forgot about Stauffer and he was selected much higher in 2017. So this might cost the org $1 million, we likely wouldn’t even have Pederson back on our radar until the 2021 season. 

I can't find the bonus for Stauffer, but if they went overslot on him, they went into the taxed overage. They used all their extra money on Cameron Bishop (605k). 

 

[sportsfan8703]

On 6/24/2019 at 11:14 PM, Luke-OH said:

It's about 350k, so they could offer 475k if they don't use some of the room to go overslot on Daschbach or others. 

I couldn’t find numbers on Stauffer either, but you pegged the remaining amount. Depending on Hammar, we could offer 340k without going into the tax range. 

I don’t really follow NCAA, but is Missouri that tough to steal away from?  

Its not my money, and I’m looking at the reality of watching the MLB team put up three straight 40 win seasons, so if they spend 500k extra on the draft then so be it.