The lineup I want to see in September

[Philip]

4 hours ago, Yardball85 said:

Perhaps, but what's the harm in playing him there throughout September?  His value increases immensely if he can be average at third.

Well, over his career he has not been average at third, he’s been horrible at third, and in today’s baseball environment, where everybody is heading 20 homeruns,  it’s pretty easy to find guys with power and nothing else. Nunez hits pretty well, but he’s limited enough that a few games at third base, even if they are not his typical defense, won’t increase his trade value. 

We have so many guys who do basically the same thing, with the same limitations, that it will be very interesting to see who we eventually end up keeping.

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Philip said:

Well, over his career he has not been average at third, he’s been horrible at third, and in today’s baseball environment, where everybody is heading 20 homeruns,  it’s pretty easy to find guys with power and nothing else. Nunez hits pretty well, but he’s limited enough that a few games at third base, even if they are not his typical defense, won’t increase his trade value. 

We have so many guys who do basically the same thing, with the same limitations, that it will be very interesting to see who we eventually end up keeping.

Quote of the week right here. You hit the proverbial nail on the head. 

Also, I'm really hoping that Mountcastle isn't Austin Riley 2.0 who looked completely lost after a few weeks in the bigs. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Isn't it the same ball though?

Yes, which has meant that offenses in AAA have gone up from last year by a run a game.  Last year the IL scored 4.16 runs/game and had a .709 OPS.  This year it's 5.17 and .788.

Mountcastle's .865 OPS translated to the old AAA would have been something like a .785.  Lop off 30-50 points because it was the old ball and Harbor Park... and you get a guy who's probably, at this moment, a .725 OPS hitter in the majors.  That's probably what Mountcastle is today.  He'll improve, but a .725 OPS first baseman/LFer is just a random player.

You now probably have to take 125-150 points off a Tides player's OPS to get in the rough ballpark of what they'll hit in the majors.

[DrungoHazewood]

32 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Mountcastle is still 13th in the league in OPS.  Granted I don’t know if this means a lot because the ones that are higher probably got promoted and lost eligibility.

What in the world is going on in AAA leagues this year?  Is this related to the ball? Average OPS in both leagues is up like 70 points compared to 2018.

100% the ball.  Offense up about run a game in both the PCL and IL.  PCL is now just off the rails, with nearly six runs a game and MLB levels of homers.  The other day I looked up the A's affiliate in Vegas and they have players with almost 40 homers and an RBI a game that haven't gotten callups.

In AA and below where there was no change in the ball it's just normal season-to-season differences in run contexts.

[ChuckS]

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, which has meant that offenses in AAA have gone up from last year by a run a game.  Last year the IL scored 4.16 runs/game and had a .709 OPS.  This year it's 5.17 and .788.

Mountcastle's .865 OPS translated to the old AAA would have been something like a .785.  Lop off 30-50 points because it was the old ball and Harbor Park... and you get a guy who's probably, at this moment, a .725 OPS hitter in the majors.  That's probably what Mountcastle is today.  He'll improve, but a .725 OPS first baseman/LFer is just a random player.

You now probably have to take 125-150 points off a Tides player's OPS to get in the rough ballpark of what they'll hit in the majors.

It's not an exact science though and there is a lot of random variance involved.  Santander is OPS'ing almost 100 points higher at the MLB level than what he did in Norfolk this season for example. 

There is also such thing as adjusting to the level of competition.  I'm not saying Mountcastle wouldn't be a .725 OPS guy right now at the MLB level but he could just as easily be an .825 guy.  I'd expect him to have an easier time hitting home runs in Camden Yards than Norfolk.  Maybe the hard contact percentage goes down, but fly balls definitely have an easier time getting out of Camden than Harbor Park. 

[Yardball85]

53 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, over his career he has not been average at third, he’s been horrible at third, and in today’s baseball environment, where everybody is heading 20 homeruns,  it’s pretty easy to find guys with power and nothing else. Nunez hits pretty well, but he’s limited enough that a few games at third base, even if they are not his typical defense, won’t increase his trade value. 

We have so many guys who do basically the same thing, with the same limitations, that it will be very interesting to see who we eventually end up keeping.

He looks terrible, but was actually around average last year.  Hasn't been good this year, but has had very limited opportunities.  That's why I think we may as well expand the sample size and see what he is capable of over a full month.

[Philip]

7 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

He looks terrible, but was actually around average last year.  Hasn't been good this year, but has had very limited opportunities.  That's why I think we may as well expand the sample size and see what he is capable of over a full month.

Well, thats fine, but the goal shouldn’t be to increase his trade value, because he essentially has none. However if they want to see if he could be good enough at third that he could replace Ruiz, that might be a legitimate goal. I like Ruiz, but he may not hit well enough.

[Philip]

15 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

It's not an exact science though and there is a lot of random variance involved.  Santander is OPS'ing almost 100 points higher at the MLB level than what he did in Norfolk this season for example. 

There is also such thing as adjusting to the level of competition.  I'm not saying Mountcastle wouldn't be a .725 OPS guy right now at the MLB level but he could just as easily be an .825 guy.  I'd expect him to have an easier time hitting home runs in Camden Yards than Norfolk.  Maybe the hard contact percentage goes down, but fly balls definitely have an easier time getting out of Camden than Harbor Park. 

Defense is important to me, so I’m not really a big Mountcastle fan, but we should bring him up and let him play. We’re not gonna find out how he will do in the majors unless we let him  play in the majors.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

It's not an exact science though and there is a lot of random variance involved.  Santander is OPS'ing almost 100 points higher at the MLB level than what he did in Norfolk this season for example. 

There is also such thing as adjusting to the level of competition.  I'm not saying Mountcastle wouldn't be a .725 OPS guy right now at the MLB level but he could just as easily be an .825 guy.  I'd expect him to have an easier time hitting home runs in Camden Yards than Norfolk.  Maybe the hard contact percentage goes down, but fly balls definitely have an easier time getting out of Camden than Harbor Park. 

It's just like major league projections.  If you take any .750 OPS major leaguer, even one with a long track record, you might get a .650 or an .850 out of their next 200 PAs.  Santander had 200 PAs in Norfolk and has 300 in the majors.  And he's had a very convoluted development path with his Rule 5 and injury history.

But my main point is that you have to adjust expectations with AAA players and their translations this year.  Ever since Norfolk was a Mets' affiliate many or most players hit almost as well there as in the majors because it was a very challenging environment.  Now Norfolk and their opponents are averaging 5.4 runs/game, which is basically the run context of the height of the steroid era in the majors.  Remember, Chance Sisco and DJ Stewart OPS'd over .900 in Norfolk this year.  Jace Peterson... Jace Peterson... OPS'd .910.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Defense is important to me, so I’m not really a big Mountcastle fan, but we should bring him up and let him play. We’re not gonna find out how he will do in the majors unless we let him  play in the majors.

I think so.  As long as they have considered service time.  Less reason to call him up and start his clock if he's not going to be contributing to a good team for a few years.

Defense just sets the offensive bar.  If he's a so-so 1B/LF, if he has Trey Mancini's glove, he's going to have to OPS .850+ to be valuable. 

[TINSTAAPP]

33 minutes ago, Philip said:

Defense is important to me, so I’m not really a big Mountcastle fan, but we should bring him up and let him play. We’re not gonna find out how he will do in the majors unless we let him  play in the majors.

Also, Jace Peterson's started at LF in nine of the past 15 games. Seriously, what's the point of having Peterson out there instead of Mountcastle? Peterson is an infielder by trade and he has no future with this team.

[DrungoHazewood]

33 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Also, Jace Peterson's started at LF in nine of the past 15 games. Seriously, what's the point of having Peterson out there instead of Mountcastle? Peterson is an infielder by trade and he has no future with this team.

With a little patience and not starting his clock too early Mountcastle just might be part of a good 2026 Orioles team.  Jace Peterson's only chance to be on the 2026 Orioles is as a coach.  This year's on-field performance just doesn't matter, and Mountcastle isn't being hurt one bit by spending the year with the Tides.  He has plenty of time to adjust to MLB pitching before the O's are any good.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

With a little patience and not starting his clock too early Mountcastle just might be part of a good 2026 Orioles team.  Jace Peterson's only chance to be on the 2026 Orioles is as a coach.  This year's on-field performance just doesn't matter, and Mountcastle isn't being hurt one bit by spending the year with the Tides.  He has plenty of time to adjust to MLB pitching before the O's are any good.

Yep they can keep him down for all for 2020-2021 and get to work on his walk rate.  That way he'll still be on the 2028 team! 

Let's just start a policy that if they only get promoted to the majors if they are out of options.

The O's will win all sort of minor league titles with 26 year olds in AA.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Well, over his career he has not been average at third, he’s been horrible at third, and in today’s baseball environment, where everybody is heading 20 homeruns,  it’s pretty easy to find guys with power and nothing else.

What’s your evidence that Nunez has been horrible at 3B in his career?

UZR/150: +10.1

Rtot/yr: -1

Rdrs/yr: +2

Now, I will be the first to say that I thought he looked terrible at 3B this spring, and mediocre there in the few games I saw him play in 2018.    But I don’t see any statistical evidence of him having been horrible in his career.    And, he was dealing with a sore arm this spring so I don’t put too much weight on his poor defense then.   

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

With a little patience and not starting his clock too early Mountcastle just might be part of a good 2026 Orioles team.  Jace Peterson's only chance to be on the 2026 Orioles is as a coach.  This year's on-field performance just doesn't matter, and Mountcastle isn't being hurt one bit by spending the year with the Tides.  He has plenty of time to adjust to MLB pitching before the O's are any good.