What will Villar's trade value be this off-season?

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

My opinion of Villar aside, this team shouldn't be signing ANYONE over the age of 25 to a multi year deal. 

Also, Villar has been not good more than he's been good in his career. And the last time he came off a season like he's having this year he majorly flopped the following season. Just some food for thought. 

2013 - Not good

2014 - Not good

2015 - Not good

2016 - Good

2017 - Not good

2018 - Average

2019 - Good

Let’s just keep this simple.  If you had to predict Villar’s WAR production over the next three years, what you predict?   He’ll be ages 29-31.     

[Sessh]

On 9/13/2019 at 2:41 PM, wildbillhiccup said:

Also, Villar has been not good more than he's been good in his career. And the last time he came off a season like he's having this year he majorly flopped the following season. Just some food for thought. 

2013 - Not good

2014 - Not good

2015 - Not good

2016 - Good

2017 - Not good

2018 - Average

2019 - Good

Once again, incorrect. Total ABs in the "not good" years: 982. Total ABs in the other years: 1635. He's been good far more than bad when he has been on the field. You also fail to see that he was not an everyday player from 2013-2015 while he was from 2016 to the present which indicates he has improved significantly from those first three years and even improved every year of those three years. It's not really food for thought since the ingredients used to make it are biased. It colors every word you utter with regards to Villar as well as the way you choose to analyze him.

So, he flopped in 2017, so that means he will again next year? How do you figure that exactly? Literally any player could flop next year or any year. The fact is Villar has been a solid player for three of the last four years and has been one of the few bright spots this season. I am also not interested in assembling the youngest team in the majors. Good teams have balance between youth and veterans. All I care about is whether or not they are good players in the end. The youth will come from our system and the vets from somewhere else. The good ones, we should seriously look into keeping around. Even if it's just paying him in arbitration, Villar should be here next year.

[luismatos4prez]

Villar's going to get like $7M or so in arbitration. If you think he's a 3 WAR player (which there's a good case for), then that's a lot of value and not a lot of risk for a winning team who needs a middle infielder.

I bet Elias could trade him for a 45 grade prospect this winter. Would you trade him for a player like Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna, or Dean Kremer? 

[Il BuonO]

On 9/14/2019 at 8:27 AM, Frobby said:

Let’s just keep this simple.  If you had to predict Villar’s WAR production over the next three years, what you predict?   He’ll be ages 29-31.     

I’ll say 6.

[Ruzious]

6 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Villar's going to get like $7M or so in arbitration. If you think he's a 3 WAR player (which there's a good case for), then that's a lot of value and not a lot of risk for a winning team who needs a middle infielder.

I bet Elias could trade him for a 45 grade prospect this winter. Would you trade him for a player like Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna, or Dean Kremer? 

Realistically, for a winning team, he's a 2nd baseman who can back up the SS.  Is there a winning team that needs a second baseman?  

[Luke-OH]

43 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Realistically, for a winning team, he's a 2nd baseman who can back up the SS.  Is there a winning team that needs a second baseman?  

A simple fit would be the Indians, Kipnis is going to be 33 and will have his 16.5M club option declined. The Indians have limited payroll flexibility it seems so a 1/7M deal for an upgrade at 2B should be enticing. 

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Sessh said:

Once again, incorrect. Total ABs in the "not good" years: 982. Total ABs in the other years: 1635. He's been good far more than bad when he has been on the field. You also fail to see that he was not an everyday player from 2013-2015 while he was from 2016 to the present which indicates he has improved significantly from those first three years and even improved every year of those three years. It's not really food for thought since the ingredients used to make it are biased. It colors every word you utter with regards to Villar as well as the way you choose to analyze him.

When I do projections I weight the last four years by 4, 3, 2, 1.  What someone did five years ago is irrelevant. And four years ago only gets 1/10th of the overall weight.  

To me Villar has an established production level of 2.7 wins.  I think over the next three years he'll be worth something like 5-6 wins.

[wildbillhiccup]

12 hours ago, Sessh said:

Once again, incorrect. Total ABs in the "not good" years: 982. Total ABs in the other years: 1635. He's been good far more than bad when he has been on the field. You also fail to see that he was not an everyday player from 2013-2015 while he was from 2016 to the present which indicates he has improved significantly from those first three years and even improved every year of those three years. It's not really food for thought since the ingredients used to make it are biased. It colors every word you utter with regards to Villar as well as the way you choose to analyze him.

So, he flopped in 2017, so that means he will again next year? How do you figure that exactly? Literally any player could flop next year or any year. The fact is Villar has been a solid player for three of the last four years and has been one of the few bright spots this season. I am also not interested in assembling the youngest team in the majors. Good teams have balance between youth and veterans. All I care about is whether or not they are good players in the end. The youth will come from our system and the vets from somewhere else. The good ones, we should seriously look into keeping around. Even if it's just paying him in arbitration, Villar should be here next year.

Bad is bad. You can't just ignore that fact because you don't think he had enough ABs. I said this before, but Villar is an accumulator. He accumulates stats on bad teams that are willing to overlook his defense and poor base running and give him regular ABs. There's a reason why he hasn't been an everyday player for most of his career. 

Also, unless you have a crystal ball the only thing we have to help us to predicate the future is past performance. So yes, I do think if he flopped in 2017 there's a a chance he does the same in 2020. 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

On 9/14/2019 at 9:27 AM, Frobby said:

Let’s just keep this simple.  If you had to predict Villar’s WAR production over the next three years, what you predict?   He’ll be ages 29-31.     

Best guess? 2ish? 

[wildbillhiccup]

On 9/13/2019 at 4:02 PM, John Welch said:

Agreed. I doubt it would even be discussed. 

It's being discussed on this forum...and in this thread. Which leads me to believe that folks don't fully understand that they're burning it down and rebuilding. The team should be focused on ridding themselves of their few remaining contracts for any players over the age of 25, not resigning those players. 

[wildbillhiccup]

12 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Villar's going to get like $7M or so in arbitration. If you think he's a 3 WAR player (which there's a good case for), then that's a lot of value and not a lot of risk for a winning team who needs a middle infielder.

I bet Elias could trade him for a 45 grade prospect this winter. Would you trade him for a player like Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna, or Dean Kremer? 

I hear ya, but there's been no indication that there's been a market (or interest) for Villar over the last five years...aside from the Orioles. I hope you're right, but I'm just skeptically that he actually has the trade value that some of us think he does. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Best guess? 2ish? 

I assume you meant 2ish per season.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I hear ya, but there's been no indication that there's been a market (or interest) for Villar over the last five years...aside from the Orioles. I hope you're right, but I'm just skeptically that he actually has the trade value that some of us think he does. 

I think the trade market for Villar is going to be limited. A playoff team looks at Villar's defense and base running, and they see him as a player who will run into the last out of a playoff series. Or make the errant throw or miss a ground ball that gets through for the go ahead run.

Villar has value, but the question is would the return in a trade be enough to justify paying him $7M or $8M in 2020. And one more thing, Villar's OPS+ is 109. With offense up in MLB his stats don't look as good when they are normalized against league average and ballpark effects.  

 

[Ripken]

That he's had a better year than Manny is at least a little funny.

[DrungoHazewood]

59 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think the trade market for Villar is going to be limited. A playoff team looks at Villar's defense and base running, and they see him as a player who will run into the last out of a playoff series. Or make the errant throw or miss a ground ball that gets through for the go ahead run.

Villar has value, but the question is would the return in a trade be enough to justify paying him $7M or $8M in 2020. And one more thing, Villar's OPS+ is 109. With offense up in MLB his stats don't look as good when they are normalized against league average and ballpark effects.  

 

How can you be so sure that they won't see him as a guy who takes just enough risks to be a positive contributor?  You don't necessarily get to the playoffs on the backs of guys who staunchly refuse to take any chances on the bases.