What will Villar's trade value be this off-season?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sessh said:

I understand, but I'm not really talking about anything longer than three years. Also, Villar is a bit of a fan favorite at this point along with Alberto. The skill sets they bring give the team some character and bring exciting elements to the game. I would bring him back. I generally agree with your comment, though.

I don't think anyone is buying a ticket to see Villar.

[sportsfan8703]

These Villar threads really do the trick. Villar with a HR last night. 

The Cubs have to really be kicking themselves. They tried to roll with what they had and went cheap with Tony Kemp as Util. Hoerner is a fine prospect but Villar would really be helping. Just think, they probably turned down even a Cashner like return. 

Who was our last 25/25 guy? @DrungoHazewood

Manny did 20/20 in 2015. 

Edited September 13, 2019 by sportsfan8703

[DirtyBird]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree Elias will be looking for two SS this off season.  One to start and one to be the UIF.  And probably 5 pitchers.

Richie Martin will probably be the starting SS next season. There is really no reason to go out and pay more for someone else.

And with McCoy going to the AFL, they might think he has a chance to be the utility guy.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think anyone is buying a ticket to see Villar.

At least as much (percentage-wise) as BJ Surhoff was.  I'd buy into him increasing attendance 0.1%, maybe even 0.2%.

[EricK]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

These Villar threads really do the trick. Villar with a HR last night. 

The Cubs have to really be kicking themselves. They tried to roll with what they had and went cheap with Tony Kemp as Util. Hoerner is a fine prospect but Villar would really be helping. Just think, they probably turned down even a Cashner like return. 

Who was our last 25/25 guy? @DrungoHazewood

Manny did 20/20 in 2015. 

Reggie Jackson (1976) 27 HR 28 SB

Brady Anderson was close in 1999 with 24 HR 36 SB

[wildbillhiccup]

13 hours ago, Sessh said:

I understand, but I'm not really talking about anything longer than three years. Also, Villar is a bit of a fan favorite at this point along with Alberto. The skill sets they bring give the team some character and bring exciting elements to the game. I would bring him back. I generally agree with your comment, though.

I don't think this team should be giving out multi-year deals to anyone. And buying high on a flawed player like Villar is the type of move the old regime would have made. Let someone else make that mistake. 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

These Villar threads really do the trick. Villar with a HR last night. 

The Cubs have to really be kicking themselves. They tried to roll with what they had and went cheap with Tony Kemp as Util. Hoerner is a fine prospect but Villar would really be helping. Just think, they probably turned down even a Cashner like return. 

Who was our last 25/25 guy? @DrungoHazewood

Manny did 20/20 in 2015. 

Already answered by EricK.  Here's the top 10 Orioles in Power-Speed Number:

Rk	Player	Year	HR	SB	Age	PS#
1	Brady Anderson\anderbr01	1992	21	53	28	30.1
2	Brady Anderson\anderbr01	1996	50	21	32	29.6
3	Brady Anderson\anderbr01	1999	24	36	35	28.8
4	Don Baylor\baylodo01	1975	25	32	26	28.1
5	Reggie Jackson\jacksre01	1976	27	28	30	27.5
6	Jonathan Villar\villajo01	2019	21	33	28	25.7
7	Manny Machado\machama01	2015	35	20	22	25.5
8	Corey Patterson\patteco01	2006	16	45	26	23.6
9	Albert Belle\belleal01	1999	37	17	32	23.3
10	Paul Blair\blairpa01	1969	26	20	25	22.6

 

Power-Speed number is just the harmonic mean of steals and homers.  (2*HR*SB)/(HR+SB).  You get a bigger value by having both of them high, less bonus for one really high and one kind of low.  55/20 is about the same as 30/30.

[Sessh]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I don't think this team should be giving out multi-year deals to anyone. And buying high on a flawed player like Villar is the type of move the old regime would have made. Let someone else make that mistake. 

This team needs some veterans going forward. Buying high? He's been solid in three of the four years he's been an everyday player. That's not buying high, it's pretty clear what you're likely to get; a 3-4 WAR player. All players are flawed. It's not going off of one season, it's going off of four seasons. One was bad, three were not.

Besides, everyone knows you have an axe to grind with Villar and take any chance you can to judge him as unfairly and harshly as possible. I don't share your negative bias.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Sessh said:

This team needs some veterans going forward.

Mancini and Bundy will be veterans moving forward. Nunez and Alberto will be veterans who could still be with the team. You don't need to sign 28 year olds to new contracts to have veterans, going forward.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Richie Martin will probably be the starting SS next season. There is really no reason to go out and pay more for someone else.

And with McCoy going to the AFL, they might think he has a chance to be the utility guy.

Martin is not a MLB starting SS long term. McCoy is a fringe prospect, nowhere near a sure thing.

If you actually thought Villar was undervalued and could not get trade value back, signing him long term would not be a bad option IMO. There is a good chance that either we are competitive and/or nobody else is ready for 2B/SS during the course of a Villar extension. It would be a surprising move, but not a terrible one.  At the very least, it looks like we need to pay him for next year.

If we are in perpetual rebuild mode, eventually it becomes self fulfilling and we never compete.

[NCRaven]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At least as much (percentage-wise) as BJ Surhoff was.  I'd buy into him increasing attendance 0.1%, maybe even 0.2%.

I think he increases attendance only to the extent that he helps the team be better and fans will pay to see a better team.  But they are not going to see Villar per se.

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think he increases attendance only to the extent that he helps the team be better and fans will pay to see a better team.  But they are not going to see Villar per se.

Right. You'll sometimes hear of a player being a huge gate draw by himself.  Once in a long while there's a Fidrych, Fernando, Strasburg.  But 99% of the time the impact is so small you could round it to zero.

[DirtyBird]

57 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Martin is not a MLB starting SS long term. McCoy is a fringe prospect, nowhere near a sure thing.

If you actually thought Villar was undervalued and could not get trade value back, signing him long term would not be a bad option IMO. There is a good chance that either we are competitive and/or nobody else is ready for 2B/SS during the course of a Villar extension. It would be a surprising move, but not a terrible one.  At the very least, it looks like we need to pay him for next year.

If we are in perpetual rebuild mode, eventually it becomes self fulfilling and we never compete.

Then you let Villar play next season and make a decision either at next year’s trade deadline or offseason. You don’t tie yourself into a multi year extension on him now.

[7Mo]

18 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Then you let Villar play next season and make a decision either at next year’s trade deadline or offseason. You don’t tie yourself into a multi year extension on him now.

With the only exception being if signing him to an extension made him MORE valuable in trade, which is extremely unlikely. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, Sessh said:

This team needs some veterans going forward. Buying high? He's been solid in three of the four years he's been an everyday player. That's not buying high, it's pretty clear what you're likely to get; a 3-4 WAR player. All players are flawed. It's not going off of one season, it's going off of four seasons. One was bad, three were not.

Besides, everyone knows you have an axe to grind with Villar and take any chance you can to judge him as unfairly and harshly as possible. I don't share your negative bias.

My opinion of Villar aside, this team shouldn't be signing ANYONE over the age of 25 to a multi year deal. 

Also, Villar has been not good more than he's been good in his career. And the last time he came off a season like he's having this year he majorly flopped the following season. Just some food for thought. 

2013 - Not good

2014 - Not good

2015 - Not good

2016 - Good

2017 - Not good

2018 - Average

2019 - Good