What will Villar's trade value be this off-season?

[Greg Pappas]

Villar (turns 29 in May) is playing well down the stretch, which bodes well for Elias, who's likely to engage in trade talks for the 2B this off-season. What sort of return might we expect to see for him? Mods: I feel there could be another Villar Trade thread, but didn't spot it... feel free to move.

[Greg Pappas]

Ironically, I think a Schoop-like deal could be in the cards, though I hope we would go quality over quantity and do a 1-for-1.  Perhaps a player in the Top 120-160 range would be the best we could hope for? It's hard to gauge. Thoughts?

[canonfaz]

With his track record of up and down seasons, I think we may be able to get a better return at the deadline next year (if he's having a good season). I'd be surprised if we could get anything of real value for him this off-season. Would love to be wrong though.

 

[Philip]

 I will freely admit that I was expecting him to be non-tendered. At the trade Deadline, nobody saw Eye to Eye with Mike on Villar and he remains pretty careless at times. I don’t think he’s going to have much trade value, But his value to the Orioles is undeniable, and we should plan on keeping him. He won’t be too expensive, and he does provide genuine value to the team. 

[Greg Pappas]

16 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

With his track record of up and down seasons, I think we may be able to get a better return at the deadline next year (if he's having a good season). I'd be surprised if we could get anything of real value for him this off-season. Would love to be wrong though.

 

Yeah, I actually think we will get a good enough offer this off-season.  With him becoming a free agent after next season, I'm not sure that we'd expect to get more in July than this winter.  You could be right though.

[Lucky_13]

I mean there's not a whole lot on the free agent market in terms of 2nd baseman other Schoop, Holt, and Moustakas, but how many teams really have a need at 2nd?

I do think he's traded, though.  I expect Elias to bring in a couple young shortstops from the rule 5 draft or minor league deals like he did this year and Alberto's bat plays better at 2nd.  And depending on how they view Rylan Bannon, he could be in the mix at 2nd as well sometime next year. 

[wildcard]

I think Elias will be pushing to trade Villar and Givens  this off season.   He will want value in return and will keep them if he doesn't get it but I think he will get good offers.

Some GM is going to look a 21 HR,  33 Steals with a 81% success rate and a .975 fielding pct at 2B ( which 12 in the majors) and say that guy can help my team.

I look for the asking price on both players to be pretty high.  A couple of players for each that could help the 2022 O's contend.

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I mean there's not a whole lot on the free agent market in terms of 2nd baseman other Schoop, Holt, and Moustakas, but how many teams really have a need at 2nd?

According to fWAR, Villar has been better than all but five 2B in MLB (and two of those are on the Yankees). Apparently he could have helped quite a few teams this year.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I mean there's not a whole lot on the free agent market in terms of 2nd baseman other Schoop, Holt, and Moustakas, but how many teams really have a need at 2nd?

I do think he's traded, though.  I expect Elias to bring in a couple young shortstops from the rule 5 draft or minor league deals like he did this year and Alberto's bat plays better at 2nd.  And depending on how they view Rylan Bannon, he could be in the mix at 2nd as well sometime next year. 

I agree Elias will be looking for two SS this off season.  One to start and one to be the UIF.  And probably 5 pitchers.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias will be pushing to trade Villar and Givens  this off season.   He will want value in return and will keep them if he doesn't get it but I think he will get good offers.

Some GM is going to look a 21 HR,  33 Steals with a 81% success rate and a .975 fielding pct at 2B ( which 12 in the majors) and say that guy can help my team.

I look for the asking price on both players to be pretty high.  A couple of players for each that could help the 2022 O's contend.

 

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

According to fWAR, Villar has been better than all but five 2B in MLB (and two of those are on the Yankees). Apparently he could have helped quite a few teams this year.

I don’t think that teams considering trading for Villar will value him exclusively based on what he did in 2019.    Yes, Villar has raised his future projection based on his strong performance this year, but teams aren’t going to value him on the basis that they’re likely to get a steady diet of that level performance in the future (or get it next year).

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t think that teams considering trading for Villar will value him exclusively based on what he did in 2019.    Yes, Villar has raised his future projection based on his strong performance this year, but teams aren’t going to value him on the basis that they’re likely to get a steady diet of that level performance in the future.    

That makes a lot of sense but I'm gonna hold out hope that at least one team, somewhere, falls in love with him and structures a trade accordingly.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t think that teams considering trading for Villar will value him exclusively based on what he did in 2019.    Yes, Villar has raised his future projection based on his strong performance this year, but teams aren’t going to value him on the basis that they’re likely to get a steady diet of that level performance in the future (or get it next year).

2016 3.9 WAR, 62 SB, .826 OPS

2017 0.1 WAR, .665 OPS

2018 2.7 WAR, 35 SB, .709 OPS

2019 3.9 WAR, 33 SB, .800 OPS

That's a solid body of work. Which season is the outlier?

Here's a crazy idea. If there isn't a trade market, how about an extension? What prospects would he be blocking? Buy out a year of arbitration and sign him for another 3-4 years on a team friendly Adam Jones type of deal.

[Sessh]

I'm all for a reasonable extension for Villar. Don't get why so many seem to be in such a hurry to deal him. He's been great for us this year and he's been a solid player three of the last four years. We will have guys of all ages on the next contending team. This was brought up before, but half of the Astros WS roster was filled with guys 30 or older. I'd extend Villar for a couple years, why not?

[weams]

1 minute ago, Sessh said:

I'm all for a reasonable extension for Villar. Don't get why so many seem to be in such a hurry to deal him. He's been great for us this year and he's been a solid player three of the last four years. We will have guys of all ages on the next contending team. This was brought up before, but half of the Astros WS roster was filled with guys 30 or older. I'd extend Villar for a couple years, why not?

Not interested in players with contracts at this point. 

[Sessh]

34 minutes ago, weams said:

Not interested in players with contracts at this point. 

I understand, but I'm not really talking about anything longer than three years. Also, Villar is a bit of a fan favorite at this point along with Alberto. The skill sets they bring give the team some character and bring exciting elements to the game. I would bring him back. I generally agree with your comment, though.