A look at the 40 man roster

[eddie83]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s a valid point but here are the reasons I disagree.

1. Wilkerson has less bat

2. Flaherty added value on defense where Wilkerson doesn’t.

3. I don’t think the respective FOs (including Buck who had near FO like control) value the same things.

4. The game has changed, look at Quad A typed across baseball, positional flexibility for fringe players is the standard now around baseball, not a rare commodity like it once was.

5. Having a cheap player with extremely limited upside who can play multiple positions respectably for near league minimum is important if you are competitive and are running a relatively high payroll. It’s not important if you aren’t competing and are looking for upside.

On point 5, I  would disagree a little here because if someone had upside a bad team should not be using them in a utility role. Unless of course it was a Rule 5 player.

I think the odds Steve is here when this gets turned around are very slim but for now I see no reason why they would get rid of him. They are already lacking in INF talent and with DJ’s injury that helps out Steve. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Flaherty was outstanding at 3B during the ‘14 playoffs. I loved watching him, and aside from Manny, we haven’t had a better 3B since.

In the whole 1.3 seasons since?    That’s quite a ringing endorsement!  

By the advanced metrics, Flaherty and Ruiz are close to indistinguishable defensively while playing 3B for the O’s.     They both grade out in the slightly positive range, in 800-1000 innings of play (which is not enough to be statistically reliable, according to the experts).    

 

[thezeroes]

Stevie has been DFA'd and cleared before.  It would be likely that he would become a Free Agent and sign a MiLB deal with a ST Invite on another ballclub before returning to the Orioles.

[weams]

On 10/4/2019 at 5:37 PM, Frobby said:

I just saw this article that was posted by Trezza a few days ago and it surprised me:

It was telling how when asked recently to name his winter priority roster-wise, Elias said choosing which prospects to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. Ryan Mountcastle, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin and Cody Sedlock are locks; Ryan McKenna and Alex Wells will warrant closer consideration.

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/five-questions-facing-the-orioles-this-offseason

I’m not sure if that’s just Trezza’s opinion, or whether he has some intel that Wells is more on the fence than Sedlock.    Seems very surprising to me, though I suppose it’s possible that the reason Wells was sent to the AFL was so the O’s could further evaluate whether to protect him.

Food take there.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

1.  Wilkerson had a 783 OPS vs righties last season.  Flash never had a split better the 717 OPS in 6 years with the O's.

 

Different ball, that .783 OPS for Wilkerson measures out to a 106 OPS+ against righties. Which would be good if his OPS+ against lefties was in the playable range, around 80 or so. Unfortunately it was 24! A player with a .465 OPS against one side of the plate is not rosterable unlike he is strictly a pinch-hitter against his favored side. And there is just as much reason to think that his .783 split was a fluke as his .465 split was. There is a reason he had a -0.8 rWAR. Teams don't need guys with below average corner outfield and second and third base defense who can hit slightly above league average on one side and might as well be swinging a broomstick on the other side.

He doesn't belong in the same conversation as Flaherty because he can't play MLB level shortstop. If Flaherty couldn't play short he wouldn't have appeared in over 500 MLB games and made over $6 million as a MLB player.

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Food take there.

At least for Wells it was a terrible take, as Wells is not Rule 5 eligible.

[HowAboutThat]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In the whole 1.3 seasons since?    That’s quite a ringing endorsement!  

By the advanced metrics, Flaherty and Ruiz are close to indistinguishable defensively while playing 3B for the O’s.     They both grade out in the slightly positive range, in 800-1000 innings of play (which is not enough to be statistically reliable, according to the experts).    

 

But Ruiz isn’t as versatile as Flaherty. I doubt we want him back but I’d be quite happy to have someone as good as Flahrt. If that’s Ruiz, fine, if it’s Wilk, great. And if it is tomorrow’s waiver claim, also great.

 

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Different ball, that .783 OPS for Wilkerson measures out to a 106 OPS+ against righties. Which would be good if his OPS+ against lefties was in the playable range, around 80 or so. Unfortunately it was 24! A player with a .465 OPS against one side of the plate is not rosterable unlike he is strictly a pinch-hitter against his favored side. And there is just as much reason to think that his .783 split was a fluke as his .465 split was. There is a reason he had a -0.8 rWAR. Teams don't need guys with below average corner outfield and second and third base defense who can hit slightly above league average on one side and might as well be swinging a broomstick on the other side.

He doesn't belong in the same conversation as Flaherty because he can't play MLB level shortstop. If Flaherty couldn't play short he wouldn't have appeared in over 500 MLB games and made over $6 million as a MLB player.

Hard for me to use WAR as a way to judge Wilkerson. It wasn’t his fault he was thrown into the fire in CF, where he has never played before. 

That said he can’t play SS and is a limited player. I just think on a team that right now has no idea who the LF will be and may trade Villar I don’t know why he would go right now.

[MurphDogg]

32 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Hard for me to use WAR as a way to judge Wilkerson. It wasn’t his fault he was thrown into the fire in CF, where he has never played before. 

That said he can’t play SS and is a limited player. I just think on a team that right now has no idea who the LF will be and may trade Villar I don’t know why he would go right now.

I'm not sure what his WAR would have been if you remove centerfield from the equation, but it still would be a negative number.

He doesn't hit enough to overcome his defensive shortcomings and being mediocre defensively as multiple positions isn't better than being decent at one. Playing the outfield poorly doesn't really add any value.

Even if they trade Villar, the best case scenario for him is that he is in a strict platoon with Hanser Alberto at second base where he never faces a lefty (is pinch-hit for by Alberto or someone else whenever a lefty comes into a game to face him) and pray that his line from the right-handed side holds up. He can also play corner outfield in a pinch so long as he never hits against lefties.

That still leaves you with two roster spots in a role where there should only be one (starting second baseman), and he will still be a defensive liability at second (and whenever he plays the outfield) unlike a typical backup second baseman who tends to be a plus defensively, because a backup second baseman tends to also be the backup shortstop. Under this strict scenario, you could potentially eke out a positive (though likely still sub-2 rWAR value) while also requiring a true backup shortstop, which eats up an extra roster spot.

Or he regresses to be closer to the player he was in 2017 when he put up a .754 OPS against righties in Bowie at the age of 26, and then you will have have handicapped your roster for a player who is entirely superfluous.

Either way, he is already 28 and is almost certain to not be on a contending Orioles team or ever have any trade value. I am sure there are several players that are 2+ years younger that have had some minor league success offensively and are better defensively that can be found on the waiver wire like Ruiz and Alberto were, and I would prefer to go that route trying to find such a player.

[HowAboutThat]

50 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I'm not sure what his WAR would have been if you remove centerfield from the equation, but it still would be a negative number.

He doesn't hit enough to overcome his defensive shortcomings and being mediocre defensively as multiple positions isn't better than being decent at one. Playing the outfield poorly doesn't really add any value.

Even if they trade Villar, the best case scenario for him is that he is in a strict platoon with Hanser Alberto at second base where he never faces a lefty (is pinch-hit for by Alberto or someone else whenever a lefty comes into a game to face him) and pray that his line from the right-handed side holds up. He can also play corner outfield in a pinch so long as he never hits against lefties.

That still leaves you with two roster spots in a role where there should only be one (starting second baseman), and he will still be a defensive liability at second (and whenever he plays the outfield) unlike a typical backup second baseman who tends to be a plus defensively, because a backup second baseman tends to also be the backup shortstop. Under this strict scenario, you could potentially eke out a positive (though likely still sub-2 rWAR value) while also requiring a true backup shortstop, which eats up an extra roster spot.

Or he regresses to be closer to the player he was in 2017 when he put up a .754 OPS against righties in Bowie at the age of 26, and then you will have have handicapped your roster for a player who is entirely superfluous.

Either way, he is already 28 and is almost certain to not be on a contending Orioles team or ever have any trade value. I am sure there are several players that are 2+ years younger that have had some minor league success offensively and are better defensively that can be found on the waiver wire like Ruiz and Alberto were, and I would prefer to go that route trying to find such a player.

Well, as long as we’re talking about Wilk, He’s got his pension, lifetime health care, and half a million in the bank, and he’s young, healthy, and good looking, he’ll be OK.

I wouldn’t mind keeping him. I think finding someone better is not as easy as you suggest. However, finding someone as good and a couple of years younger will be pretty easy.

meh, We’ll figure something out, April 1 is a long way away.

[wildcard]

On the current team Hays and Santander have two of the OF spots.  The other spot looks like Wilkerson's until Mountcastle is promoted.     Stewart is out to begin the season and Smith didn't hit has well as Wilkerson.

Once Mountcastle is promoted then Wilkerson probably becomes a utility infielder and back up OF.   The O's will probably be a month into the season that point and Hyde will have more information on how Alberto is doing vs righties at 2B.  Also how Ruiz is doing a 3B.   

Wilkerson also has options.  So the suggestion the Wilkerson may be DFA'd seems very unlikely to me.

I don't see Elias spending much time or money adding outfielders this off season other then putting Mountcastle and McKenna on the 40 man roster.  I think Elias time is spend on adding pitching and trying to find a trade for Villar.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

On the current team Hays and Santander have two of the OF spots.  The other spot looks like Wilkerson's until Mountcastle is promoted.     Stewart is out to begin the season and Smith didn't hit has well as Wilkerson.

Smith: .241/.297/.412, 13 HR 51 RBI, 82 K’s in 392 PA.

Wilkerson: .225/.286/.383, 10 HR 35 RBI, 108 K’s in 361 PA.

In what respect did Smith not hit as well as Wilkerson?

They’re both bad, and if Wilkerson starts over Smith, it will be because he covers more ground defensively.    
 

Personally, I won’t be shocked if Mullins makes the OD roster if he has a good spring.    

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Smith: .241/.297/.412, 13 HR 51 RBI, 82 K’s in 392 PA.

Wilkerson: .225/.286/.383, 10 HR 35 RBI, 108 K’s in 361 PA.

In what respect did Smith not hit as well as Wilkerson?

They’re both bad, and if Wilkerson starts over Smith, it will be because he covers more ground defensively.    
 

Personally, I won’t be shocked if Mullins makes the OD roster if he has a good spring.    

Wilkerson hit 783 vs righties.  He is a good platoon player for the O's.    Especially because  he is cheap and the O's  have no one better.  Righties are more than 70% if the pitchers in the league.

Wilkerson is also a better defensive left fielder than Smith.  And Wilkerson is likely the backup center field for Hayes.

I will be very surprised if Mullins does not have to prove he can hit off speed pitches at AAA before he gets a call up.

[weams]

Quote

Because there’s still some lingering confusion regarding the Rule 5 draft, I’ll pass along again that Baysox outfielder Yusniel Diaz and left-hander Alex Wells don’t need to be protected. They aren’t eligible to be selected. They don’t need to be included on the 40-man roster, which has to be set by Nov. 20.

MASNRoch

[sportsfan8703]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

In the whole 1.3 seasons since?    That’s quite a ringing endorsement!  

By the advanced metrics, Flaherty and Ruiz are close to indistinguishable defensively while playing 3B for the O’s.     They both grade out in the slightly positive range, in 800-1000 innings of play (which is not enough to be statistically reliable, according to the experts).    

 

Yeah but that .3 of a season was some of the most valuable/high leverage innings any positional player has played in 30 years. That 2014 team, and the defense Flaherty played at 3rd...

Going forward, Ruiz is average at best there. We can’t just compare Ruiz to Nunez and say that Ruiz is above average. Compare him to 3rd basemen around the league. He lacks those fast twitch athletic skills. Arm strength. First step. By the time we’re contending Ruiz will be a 1B, that’s if his bat even sticks up here.

We obviously roll with Ruiz next year. No other options, but he’s just a stop gap.