People here seem to forget

[Hank Scorpio]

And I'm saying Oriole fans, even the most casual ones, would not accept that excuse from MacPhail. I would hope that he wouldn't think fans were dumb enough to believe that Huff as good a 1B solution as Teixeira is. I don't see him pulling that because I think he knows fans aren't that naive, especially the only fans that the Orioles have left...

Teixeira's obviously a better first baseman than Huff. I don't think that's debatable. What is debatable, however.. is whether he's worth $12MM per year more. Then again, it's not my money. I'm more concerned with ending up with a 37 year old DH making $22MM than anything else.

[Mackus]

I personally think that Huff will be a better hitter for the next 1-2 years than he was in 2006-2007.

I don't have any problem with that statement. Its a very reasonable expectation that he be better than he was in 2006 and 2007 over the next year or two.

Where it gets dicey is if you are expecting him to be as good as he has been this year over the next couple years. Thats where I think the false hopes come into play.

Somewhere in the .825-.875 range is where I'd peg Huff for next season.

[Number5]

I don't have time to research this from work, but it seems like you are including lots of players who bounced back after one down year or non-consecutive down years, when in Huff's case it is more like three consecutive down years.

Some down periods were one year, most were 2-3 years, but NONE that I found fell into the alleged "often times" category of bouncing back for only one "career year," only to immediately crash and burn again.

Every one that recovered did so for an extended period. Obviously, I couldn't look up every single 1B/3B/LF/RF in history, but Huff's pattern proved to be pretty normal compared to the ones I found. Stargell, Howard, and McGriff were all remarkably parallel to Huff's pattern. Check it out.

[mweb]

And some people wonder where the "Everyone here wants to trade everyone over 30" argument comes from.:scratchchinhmm:

Not saying I agree with that premise one way or another, but I can understand where someone like RShack could come up with it.

Really? Because a decent amount of people either want to trade Huff, who is an expiring contract next season, or just don't want to re-sign him through his age 36 or so season? And a lot of those same people want to sign Tex or Dunn who are soon to be 30. Do you see a lot of people advocating trading Guthrie or Scott?

I see how someone can come to the conclusion that some people on here want to trade/not re-sign most 30+ year olds, but there is no way anyone can logically come to the conclusion that a lot of people or even a small amount of people don't want any 30 year olds on this team. Which is what Rshack says. BTW, it's been nice to not have to deal with that "logic" lately.

[Mike B]

That Aubrey Huff is

31

years old.

Can we please, please, please stop talking about him like he's a broken-down 37-year old catcher???

Signed,

Aubrey's Mom :wedge:

(I'm serious about the age part, people!)

I know you are going to get pounded for this post but you are right on. If we are to dump Aubrey and Melvin than we should pass on even trying to sign Tex. If Huff is traded for nothing, and Melvin is traded for nothing than the Orioles have no chance to compete for at least 3 years, even with signing Tex. Tex in 3 years would be 31.... and it would be time to dump him. Trade Mora and Huff only if value is returned.

[hatepaste]

However, I also think that this discussion is a waste of time. I think I've posted this four times already on OH, but I'll say it again: if nobody wanted to put in a waiver claim on Huff earlier this month, then nobody is going to want to give up a real prospect for him over the offeason--why give up talent to get someone, if you weren't willing to pick up his contract for free?

And I think we all agree that we'd might as well keep Huff for next season, unless we can actually get a real prospect in return for him. So Huff will stay, and we'll see if he can defy the odds next season.

Manny Ramirez passed through waivers a couple of years ago. Granted there was a lot more money in that contract. Waivers mean nothing in an interest in a player.

Guthrie passed through waivers through the entire American League. Are you saying not ONE American League team would be interested in him this offseason? Of course not, that'd be ridiculous.

There are so many other things that go into waivers. People pass through waivers and then get traded later all the time. Also, right now the only teams are ones in contention. In the offseason, all teams are looking to make moves.

Moot point as far as I am concerned, cause I want the O's to keep Huff.

[Mackus]

Guthrie passed through waivers through the entire American League. Are you saying not ONE American League team would be interested in him this offseason? Of course not, that'd be ridiculous.

This is both incorrect factually and flawed logically.

Guthrie didn't make it through waivers, the Orioles claimed him. Only the Royals and Devil Rays had worse records than the O's in 2006, so the O's were the 3rd team with the option of claiming him, and they did so.

But, even if he had, Guthrie as a player coming into the 2007 season was absolutely nothing like Guthrie as a played coming out of the 2008 season. You do realize that players performances and values change, right?

Huff not being claimed on waivers means one thing, nobody is interested in him at his price tag. You can sometimes get some value for players that are claimed on waivers in August, but the guys that pass aren't terribly valuable in a trade. We won't get much for Huff if we move him. Maybe we'd be lucky enough to get someone in a team's top 8-12 prospects or so. If thats the best offer, I hold onto him.

[hatepaste]

This is both incorrect factually and flawed logically.

Guthrie didn't make it through waivers, the Orioles claimed him. Only the Royals and Devil Rays had worse records than the O's in 2006, so the O's were the 3rd team with the option of claiming him, and they did so.

But, even if he had, Guthrie as a player coming into the 2007 season was absolutely nothing like Guthrie as a played coming out of the 2008 season. You do realize that players performances and values change, right?

Huff not being claimed on waivers means one thing, nobody is interested in him at his price tag. You can sometimes get some value for players that are claimed on waivers in August, but the guys that pass aren't terribly valuable in a trade. We won't get much for Huff if we move him. Maybe we'd be lucky enough to get someone in a team's top 8-12 prospects or so. If thats the best offer, I hold onto him.

YOUR response is incorrect and flawed, factually and logically.

I'm talking about Guthrie going through waivers THIS year. Colorado claimed him. That means he went through the entire AL without a claim.

[mweb]

Concerning Huff, I haven't read the whole thread, but I'm pretty sure he worked out earlier and harder this past offseason compared to the past, I don't think that can be discounted.

I don't expect Huff to have another season like this next year, but I do think he'll be better than he was in 2005-2007, possibly by a large amount.

The only reasons why I'd like to explore trading him is because he is only signed through next year, and I'd prefer not to sign him to a big deal through his age 36 or so season, and he might bring some very young talent in return since he is coming off such a strong season.

If we keep him next year, and he has another very good season, and the team shows that it's on the verge of competing, then it would make more sense to keep him.

[Mackus]

YOUR response is incorrect and flawed, factually and logically.

I'm talking about Guthrie going through waivers THIS year. Colorado claimed him. That means he went through the entire AL without a claim.

Where was the report that he made it all the way to Colorado before getting claimed?

That seems pretty unbelievable to me. Even if was reported by someone credible, I'm gonna not believe it. Someone's getting bad information if they think Guthrie made it all the way to Colorado before being claimed, IMO.

[hatepaste]

Where was the report that he made it all the way to Colorado before getting claimed?

That seems pretty unbelievable to me. Even if was reported by someone credible, I'm gonna not believe it. Someone's getting bad information if they think Guthrie made it all the way to Colorado before being claimed, IMO.

It's been a week or so, so I don't know where I read it. I did read it in a few places.

Now I completely agree with you, that I think it's ridiciulous he would have made it that far without being claimed. I mean, even a team out of contention would be interested in him.

[mweb]

What miracle? That Huff will play like a 31 year old and not a 41 year old? I fail to see how that's a miracle.

Yeah, I agree, hoping Huff will put up an OPS around .850 is not at all hoping for a miracle.

[TyCobb]

When he put up the OPS+ of 124?

It's not ridiculous to expect him to "come close" to repeating. You're truly mis-using statistics if you thing his regression to his previous numbers is going to be so severe that he can't "come close" to this year.

There's nothing in his number this year that screams "luck". His BABIP is .304. His LD% is typical. His HR/FB isn't unusually high. There's simply nothing that says "regression."

Yes - he was mediocre from 2005-2007. No doubt. But that's not an irreversible trend. And he's not over-the-hill. I wouldn't bank on him repeating his numbers from this year, but your rhetoric is ill-formed and absurd.

This post seemed to have gotten lost in the mix. I agree 100% with it.

[Maverick2143]

Where was the report that he made it all the way to Colorado before getting claimed?

That seems pretty unbelievable to me. Even if was reported by someone credible, I'm gonna not believe it. Someone's getting bad information if they think Guthrie made it all the way to Colorado before being claimed, IMO.

I'm not buying it either.

I did 5 or 6 Google searches with a different keywords and the closest thing I found was reports of the Rockies offering Barmes for Guthrie back in July on MLBTradeRumors.com. Other that all I saw were links to fantasy leagues transaction pages. Someone could have said it, but I highly doubt it's true.

[SilentJames]

Oriole fans will accept whatever excuse given by the team...Hell, i guarantee you most people on this site would be praising AM if he came out and said that and would be saying he knows what he is doing, blah blah blah.

Have you not been paying attention the last several years?

Most of the people praising AM and the direction he has this team going in praised Beattie, Flanny and Duq as well. They talked about how they are good baseball men and know what they are doing.

Again, same arguments, different years, players and FO personnel.

Now, for once, i think the argument actually holds water but still, lots to do.

I don't think anyone here is saying there ISN'T a whole bunch to do. I mean there is a lot. Trading huff makes sense, but AM won't just let him go, seriously Huff is having an amazing year.

Now maybe since he has been seeing time primarily as a DH instead of in the field that has helped his resurgence. Maybe he is just having a magical hot streak. Maybe he truly is a kind of comeback player, free of a nagging hernia injury and a new swing style has allowed him to recapture something he had five years ago.

Thing is, we don't know.

Not every player follows a nice indirectly proportional line of age vs production. The thing is we don't know.

I think the points we need to take away from this whole thread are as follows:

1) We can NOT count on Huff to put up a 900+ OPS next year. We simply can not count on that.

2) He is only 31 years old. He probably has at least two or three season of good production ahead of him, especially as he has adjusted to getting most of his ABs as a DH/ spot-1B,3B.

3) He should be shopped, but we should be getting back a young shortstop or a solid veteran arm that we an plunk in the middle of the rotation for the first half of 2009. Ideally I would want both, the vet arm being a complete stop gap for Tillman/Arrieta/Matusz.

3) Even is we end up with Huff and he regresses back towards his career average OPS; that would put him in a Jason Kubel type area. That is still better than 2007 and a solid contributor to the team allowing him to be moved at the deadline next year.