People here seem to forget

[DrungoHazewood]

Why do you EXPECT that?

You are basically saying you think he is going to have an OPS around 850 or so...Why?

Because people have a natural tendency to think things are much more smooth and consistent than they usually are.

[Tx Oriole]

SG you and others want Tex to sign with Baltimore next season. To sign for 5 or 6 years. I know he is a better player than Huff but how can you or anyone else just ignore the 31 or 32 drop off age of Tex? That seems the age that some go by. I am just not ready to be so sure Huff will drop off next season at least not to the point some do. IMO

[JTrea81]

People aren't expecting a huge dropoff from Huff next year because he is going to be 32.

People are expecting a dropoff from Huff next year because the last two years before this year he put up a .775 and .813 OPS and for his career has an .825 OPS.

Here is a set of four numbers. Tell me which one doesn't belong:

.825

.813

.917

.775

His stance has been adjusted now, he seems to have a clearer mind, isn't pressing and seems happy. Perhaps everything has finally clicked for him like it was in his early days in Tampa Bay. Huff seems like the kind of guy to have to have a good environment around him to produce.

[Sports Guy]

Why do you think he's suddenly going to drop 100 points in OPS by having another birthday?

I expect him to be the player he has been the last 3 years prior to this one.

[Mackus]

I expect him to be the player he has been the last 3 years prior to this one.

I don't think you can completely discount this year. You have to take it into account. He's shown that he has the ability to bounce back and have a huge year.

Now, I think its equally, or possibly even more, foolish to expect him to continue to hit at this higher production, but the most recent years are weighed far more heavily by most sources for making future predictions.

I don't think expecting something in the .825-.875 OPS range next year for Huff is unreasonable. Something in the low-to-mid 800s is probably around his 50th percentile expectation for next year. Of course, Huff will have a much higher chance of "falling off" than he will of "breaking out".

[JTrea81]

I expect him to be the player he has been the last 3 years prior to this one.

So you are completely ignoring the fact that Crowley worked with him to change his stance, his closest friend passed away, and he has a new baby on the way. Yeah none of those things can alter the way a player plays... :rolleyestf:

[Mackus]

His stance has been adjusted now, he seems to have a clearer mind, isn't pressing and seems happy. Perhaps everything has finally clicked for him like it was in his early days in Tampa Bay. Huff seems like the kind of guy to have to have a good environment around him to produce.

So which number doesn't belong?

[Satyr3206]

Just take hum out for a lap dance every once in a while next year and he'll be fine.

[Satyr3206]

Just take hum out for a lap dance every once in a while next year and he'll be fine.

should have been him

[Why Not?]

So you are completely ignoring the fact that Crowley worked with him to change his stance, his closest friend passed away, and he has a new baby on the way. Yeah none of those things can alter the way a player plays... :rolleyestf:

Those things might have an effect, but it's almost certainly temporary. He is the player he is, and it's probably not the red hot hitter we've seen the last few months.

[JTrea81]

So which number doesn't belong?

2002 TB .884

2003 TB .922

2004 TB .853

2005 TB .749

2006 Hou .819

2006 TB .809

2007 Bal .779

2008 Bal .917

I'd say the .749 and .779...

[Slappy]

People are expecting a dropoff from Huff next year because the last two years before this year he put up a .775 and .813 OPS and for his career has an .825 OPS.

Here is a set of four numbers. Tell me which one doesn't belong:

.825

.813

.917

.775

Wow, that's a case of selective proof. Let's add 3 more numbers to that:

.884

.922

.853

Not so obvious now.

[DrungoHazewood]

2002 TB .884

2003 TB .922

2004 TB .853

2005 TB .749

2006 Hou .819

2006 TB .809

2007 Bal .779

2008 Bal .917

I'd say the .749 and .779...

It's all about context, boys and girls:

OPS+

2002 135

2003 145

2004 124

2005 98

2006 108

2007 103

2008 140

Peak in 2003, decline, decline, plateau at below-league-average for a DH/1B, then *pop* it's like he 26 all over over again. You want to count on the magic continuing, go right ahead. You rarely win anything betting on out-of-nowhere magic continuing for no good reason.

[Sports Guy]

So you are completely ignoring the fact that Crowley worked with him to change his stance, his closest friend passed away, and he has a new baby on the way. Yeah none of those things can alter the way a player plays... :rolleyestf:

These are well and good but they don't improve his skill level or make him younger.

You are searching for reasons IMO.

After May, were you predicting he would break out this year?

[Sports Guy]

Wow, that's a case of selective proof. Let's add 3 more numbers to that:

.884

.922

.853

Not so obvious now.

Looking at the previous 3 years, especially with an older player, is always what you should look at...Looking at what Huff did as a 27 year old, 5 years ago matters very little.