Bundy to San Diego Would Be Smart

[UMDTerrapins]

3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

This thread rages on, but no one has answered my question. If the Padres trade (or sign) a starting pitching it's going to be a top tier guy to help take to pressure off Paddack. 

I think it’s clear they want to find a #1 type, and will. So I think our best angle is to take Myers’ contract:

 

1) Wil Myers/prospect 1, for Alex Cobb

 

2) Wil Myers/prospect 1/prospect 2 for Mychal Givens

 

#1 clears space for Naylor and sheds a contract they have little use for in favor of a shorter contract that could turn useful if Cobb returns healthy. 

 

#2 clears space for Naylor, sheds a contract they have little use for, gives payroll space to chase a top FA pitcher, and gives them a good arm for late innings. The question is what kind of prospects are the O’s buying when they absorb that ugly Myers contract? 

 

If the O’s are interested in going this route, they’d need to do it quickly. Naturally the winter meetings are in San Diego. 

 

Note: I’m not advocating those deals. Just saying that seems our best path if we wanted to deal with San Diego. I don’t want any part of Myers, other than what he can buy us in prospects. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Number5 said:

I'm not sure that all pitchers are affected in the same way by the differences in ballparks.  I think the point that the home run particularly hurt Bundy makes sense.  He is a pitcher that may well benefit more from the difference between Petco and OPACY than league average.  At least the argument seems logical to me.

This fact may surprise you: the average major league pitcher allowed 53.7% of his runs on homers last year, but Bundy only allowed  44.2% of his runs on homers.   The average pitcher gave up 1.57 runs each time he allowed a homer, but Bundy only allowed 1.45 runs per homer.    Those stats cuts against your argument.

FWIW, last year, OPACY had a HR factor of 1.262 and  run factor of 1.088.    Petco had a HR factor of 0.871 and run factor of 0.860.   That suggests that a “typical” pitcher moving from OPACY to Petco would see his runs allowed at home reduced by 21% but his HRs at home reduced by 31%.    Bundy allowed 16 homers at OPACY, so maybe that becomes 11 at Petco.   Then you’d need to know how many of those 5 fewer homers turned into outs, and how many turned into doubles or triples.    That’s above my pay grade.    

[Number5]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This fact may surprise you: the average major league pitcher allowed 53.7% of his runs on homers last year, but Bundy only allowed  44.2% of his runs on homers.   The average pitcher gave up 1.57 runs each time he allowed a homer, but Bundy only allowed 1.45 runs per homer.    Those stats cuts against your argument.

FWIW, last year, OPACY had a HR factor of 1.262 and  run factor of 1.088.    Petco had a HR factor of 0.871 and run factor of 0.860.   That suggests that a “typical” pitcher moving from OPACY to Petco would see his runs allowed at home reduced by 21% but his HRs at home reduced by 31%.    Bundy allowed 16 homers at OPACY, so maybe that becomes 11 at Petco.   Then you’d need to know how many of those 5 fewer homers turned into outs, and how many turned into doubles or triples.    That’s above my pay grade.    

I disagree that his giving up less runs per home run goes against what I said.  In fact, it would indicate that fewer runners were on base.  Giving up 16 home runs at home for a pitcher seems like a lot to me.  No?  And for nearly a third of them to have been balls that wouldn't be home runs at Petco seems significant to me.  No?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

I disagree that his giving up less runs per home run goes against what I said.  In fact, it would indicate that fewer runners were on base.  Giving up 16 home runs at home for a pitcher seems like a lot to me.  No?  And for nearly a third of them to have been balls that wouldn't be home runs at Petco seems significant to me.  No?

My point is this: the argument was made that Bundy’s ERA might be affected more than the average pitcher by moving to Petco.    That might be true if Bundy allowed a higher proportion of his runs on homers than the average pitcher does.    But in fact he allowed a lower proportion of his runs on homers than the average pitcher does.    Ergo there’s no reason why the switch would impact his ERA more than the average pitcher.    Logical?    
 

As to the 5 fewer homers, if all of them became outs that would translate into about 7 fewer runs allowed.    But probably, they don’t all become outs.    Some turn into doubles and triples and eventually lead to runs.    So the net effect of 5 fewer homers is less than 7 runs, but I can’t tell you exactly how much less, at least without thinking about it more and making some assumptions.    

[wildbillhiccup]

16 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I think it’s clear they want to find a #1 type, and will. So I think our best angle is to take Myers’ contract:

 

1) Wil Myers/prospect 1, for Alex Cobb

 

2) Wil Myers/prospect 1/prospect 2 for Mychal Givens

 

#1 clears space for Naylor and sheds a contract they have little use for in favor of a shorter contract that could turn useful if Cobb returns healthy. 

 

#2 clears space for Naylor, sheds a contract they have little use for, gives payroll space to chase a top FA pitcher, and gives them a good arm for late innings. The question is what kind of prospects are the O’s buying when they absorb that ugly Myers contract? 

 

If the O’s are interested in going this route, they’d need to do it quickly. Naturally the winter meetings are in San Diego. 

 

Note: I’m not advocating those deals. Just saying that seems our best path if we wanted to deal with San Diego. I don’t want any part of Myers, other than what he can buy us in prospects. 

I understand your thinking, but unfortunately Dylan Bundy and Alex Cobb aren't no. 1 starters. If healthy they'd both be "at best" number 4 or 5 starters on that team. And if I was the Padres I'm not sure I'd view either one of them as a bonafide upgrade over who they already have slotted in their rotation. To make any of those trades they would have to want to dump Myers salary more than they want to improve their starting pitching. 

Givens to the Padres, on the other hand, probably makes more sense. Yates, Munoz, and Givens would be a pretty solid 1, 2, 3 punch out of the bullpen.