Would you offer Hays or Mountcastle a long term deal now?

[Philip]

19 minutes ago, weams said:

You are right. The Orioles never went four years on a 34 year old steroid suspended DH. 

To be honest, at the time I agreed with the decision: I didn’t think it was wise to go four years either, but my gosh, look how wrong everybody was....except Seattle.

[Can_of_corn]

So all this time you have been complaining about the Orioles not making a move that you wouldn't have made.

[makoman]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So all this time you have been complaining about the Orioles not making a move that you wouldn't have made.

Even called them "idiots" over it.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

To be honest, at the time I agreed with the decision: I didn’t think it was wise to go four years either, but my gosh, look how wrong everybody was....except Seattle.

Yep.   Good process, bad result.   It happens.   

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

To be honest, at the time I agreed with the decision: I didn’t think it was wise to go four years either, but my gosh, look how wrong everybody was....except Seattle.

But were they wrong?  Is it ever wrong to choose to not bet on the 30:1 longshot?

There have been about 300 players with between 13 and 20 wins through age 33.  Cruz is right in the middle.  Of those 300 only 13 of them had even five wins the rest of their careers.  Cruz is still going strong and is already #1 on the list.  

The Orioles were right on Cruz, because if they follow the same decision making process on that kind of decision in the future they'll end up way, way ahead of the teams who roll the dice.

[Philip]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But were they wrong?  Is it ever wrong to choose to not bet on the 30:1 longshot?

There have been about 300 players with between 13 and 20 wins through age 33.  Cruz is right in the middle.  Of those 300 only 13 of them had even five wins the rest of their careers.  Cruz is still going strong and is already #1 on the list.  

The Orioles were right on Cruz, because if they follow the same decision making process on that kind of decision in the future they'll end up way, way ahead of the teams who roll the dice.

Yes you’re exactly correct. I would have passed on him as well: 3 years not four. Logical, wise, correct. And I would have kicked myself for the decision.

sometimes the logical choice isn’t the right one, and only hindsight gives the answer.

I appreciate the contradiction here. Gotta love hindsight.