My Kingdom for a Horse

[Frobby]

From another thread:

Quote

Yes, it is a rare occurrence....but occasionally teams do somehow get a Justin Verlander, a Clayton Kershaw, a Gerrit Cole, aMax Scherzer, a Zack Greinke etc....you know, a horse, a guy that is a TOR.......just not us, ever. 

 

So how rare is it to have a Horse, anyway?    And exactly who qualifies?

 

I had a look at every pitcher who debuted from 1990 forward.   You can break them down this way:

 

1990-2009 Debuts – most of these pitchers are retired now, and those who are active (rWAR marked with an *) have pretty much defined their careers by now.

60+ WAR – 9 pitchers.    These are your Hall of Famers, or near misses.   They include Pedro Martinez (83.9 rWAR), Mike Mussina (82.9), Zack Greinke (71.7*), Justin Verlander (70.9*), Clayton Kershaw (68.0*), Roy Halladay (64.3), C.C. Sabathia (63.0), Max Scherzer (60.3*) and Andy Pettitte (60.2).

50+ WAR – 7 pitchers, one of whom has a real good shot at graduating to the 60+ category.   They include Cole Hamels (59.6*), Mark Buehrle (59.2), Tim Hudson (58.1), Mariano Rivera (56.2), Johan Santana (51.7), Roy Oswalt (50.1) and Felix Hernandez (50.1*).    To state the obvious, only 6 of these were starting pitchers.

40+ WAR – 7 pitchers, one of whom has a solid shot at the 50+ category.    They include Bartolo Colon (46.1), Javier Vazquez (45.7), Jon Lester (45.5*), Brad Radke (45.2), Carlos Zambrano (43.9), Cliff Lee (43.5) and Adam Wainwright (40.2*)

30+ WAR – There were 18 of these, two of whom might move into the 40+ category.    I won’t list them all here, but the active ones who debuted in this period are David Price (39.7*), Madison Bumgarner (37.1*) and Johnny Cueto (32.3*).   

20+ WAR – There were 55 of these, plus one more right on the cusp.    The active ones who debuted in this period are  Gio Gonzalez (29.2*), Anibal Sanchez (26.7*), Ervin Santana (25.9*), J.A. Happ (21.8*), Clay Buchholz (21.8*), Jordan Zimmermann (21.3*), Ubaldo Jimenez (21.0*), Carlos Carrasco (20.7*) and Jhoulys Chacin (20.0*).   Oh yeah, I put Ubaldo in the “active” category!     The “cusp” player is Rick Porcello, who is at 19.9 and young enough where he seems pretty likely to finish above 20 WAR.    This category includes 5 pitchers who were primarily relievers, and one hybrid (Darren Oliver, who had a substantial career as a starter before switching to relief).  

 

I’ll pause here for a second.    That’s a total of 97 pitchers (if you include Porcello) in 20 years who reached 20+ WAR, 41 who reached 30+, 24 who reached 40+, 16 who reached 50+, 9 who reached 60+.     You can look at the names and decide for yourself where you want to draw the line as to who was (or is) a Horse.    The only two who are really associated with the Orioles are Mike Mussina (who, it should be noted, had the second highest WAR total on the entire list) and Jake Arrieta (25.5 rWAR, almost entirely with other teams).   

 

One way to look at this is that about one 40+ WAR pitcher comes along per year (23 in 20 years, plus two others who might get there).    A typical year might see one 40+, another 30+, and three additional 20+ guys.

 

2010-14 Debuts – virtually all of the pitchers from this era are still active and may have several good years in front of them.     But here are the ones who have already cracked the 20+ WAR threshold:

40+ WAR – Chris Sale (45.3).    Hard to tell how much he has left in the tank after last year, but he’s only 31 and so I’d say he has a good chance to join the 50+ club and still a shot at 60+ too.

30+ WAR – Jake deGrom (34.9), Stephen Strasburg (33.9) and Corey Kluber (33.1).    deGrom is 32 but at the peak of his performance, so 50+ seems quite possible and 40+ a near certainty.    Strasburg is 31 and I’d probably say the same of him.   Kluber is 34 and coming off injury.   I’d put his odds of cracking 40+ WAR at less than 50/50.

20+ WAR – Jake Arrieta (25.5), Jose Quintana (24.6), Gerrit Cole (24.0), Lance Lynn (22.2), Yu Darvish (21.8), Dallas Keuchel (20.3) and Julio Teheran (20.2).     Cole seems like a good bet to wind up in the 40+ range.     It’s uncertain whether any of the others listed will exceed 30+, though some could.    I count 16 other pitchers who debuted in this era who have a decent shot at 20+ WAR, though I am sure that some of those won’t make it and that some I am not thinking of will make it.

 

So, from that five year period, I’d say you have four probable 40+ guys (Sale, deGrom, Strasburg, Cole) and another who could get there in Kluber, though I wouldn’t count on it.   But there aren’t many other likely candidates from this period for 30+.   

 

Nobody who has debuted in 2015 or later has reached 20 WAR yet, and it would be very speculative to guess who will.   

 

Let’s hope that if we revisit this thread in 10 years, there will be some new Orioles pitchers on the list.  It's been quite a dry spell.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Frobby

[Frobby]

By the way, was anyone else surprised to see Brad Radke at 45.2 rWAR?   I doubt I would have pegged him to even be in the 30+ club.    

A guy I didn’t specify but who also surprises me is Gio Gonzalez, who’s at 29.2 rWAR.     He’s had a good career but I wouldn’t think he was on the cusp of 30 WAR.
 

[DrungoHazewood]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One way to look at this is that about one 40+ WAR pitcher comes along per year (23 in 20 years, plus two others who might get there).    A typical year might see one 40+, another 30+, and three additional 20+ guys. 

In other words, an average team should get a 40+ WAR guy about once in 30 years, one other 30+ guy in that timeframe, and a 20+ every 6 or 7 years.

[Chuck A]

That's a damn nice post you made there, impressive.  I remember road tripping to Hagerstown (when the Suns were AA team) to see Mussina pitch before he made it up to the big leagues.  He was special.  Sad that all of those prospects since have all fizzled but we shall see what is to come from this latest batch.  Spring brings hope eternal! 

I do remember Radke fronting the Twins and being quite a dominant pitcher for several years. 

[jjnono]

Love this post.  How do I rep?

[makoman]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In other words, an average team should get a 40+ WAR guy about once in 30 years, one other 30+ guy in that timeframe, and a 20+ every 6 or 7 years.

So in 30 years we've either drafted or acquired very early: Mussina (40+), Arrieta (25.5, close to 30, prob won't make it), Ben McDonald (20.8, he barely pitched in '89 so I'm adding him), Zachk Britton (14.1, may yet get to 20), Eduardo Rodriguez (13.6, may get to 20). Davies is at 8, Hader is at 6.6, they have a long way but are pretty young. Gausman (10.2) and Bundy (6.8) also have a bunch of work to do. 

Others above 15 were Guthrie (17.8, had rookie status with us so I'll count him), Bedard (17.3), Armando Benitez (17.3), Arthur Rhodes (15.2).

Frankly this is better than I imagined, given that I've always felt our pitching development was pretty awful... Of course two of our top 3 left the org 20+ years ago, and most of the other WAR above was amassed on other clubs.

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, makoman said:

So in 30 years we've either drafted or acquired very early: Mussina (40+), Arrieta (25.5, close to 30, prob won't make it), Ben McDonald (20.8, he barely pitched in '89 so I'm adding him), Zachk Britton (14.1, may yet get to 20), Eduardo Rodriguez (13.6, may get to 20). Davies is at 8, Hader is at 6.6, they have a long way but are pretty young. Gausman (10.2) and Bundy (6.8) also have a bunch of work to do. 

Others above 15 were Guthrie (17.8, had rookie status with us so I'll count him), Bedard (17.3), Armando Benitez (17.3), Arthur Rhodes (15.2).

Frankly this is better than I imagined, given that I've always felt our pitching development was pretty awful... Of course two of our top 3 left the org 20+ years ago, and most of the other WAR above was amassed on other clubs.

Bedard had 12.8 in 5 seasons with the Orioles and had great stuff, same he was an arse, and then injuries hit him hard.

[Going Underground]

 

[oriolesacox]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

By the way, was anyone else surprised to see Brad Radke at 45.2 rWAR?   I doubt I would have pegged him to even be in the 30+ club.    

A guy I didn’t specify but who also surprises me is Gio Gonzalez, who’s at 29.2 rWAR.     He’s had a good career but I wouldn’t think he was on the cusp of 30 WAR.
 

His name jumped out at me immediately.  Also Javier Vasquez.  Great list, great post. Thanks!

[bobmc]

3 hours ago, jjnono said:

Love this post.  How do I rep?

Go to the ^ at the bottom right of @Frobby 's opening post and place cursor over it.  Also, you may rate topic at the top left of page.

[Philip]

5 hours ago, doccat said:

To make a deep Playoff run, you need an Ace leading the rotation and a #2 that's almost as good.  The rest of the rotation really only needs to be .500.

Look no farther than last year's playoff teams:

Wash: Scherzer, Strasburg

Hou: Cole, Verlander

LA: Kershaw, Buehler

Although these teams all had a #3 that was pretty darned good too...

 

The O's haven't really had an ace since Mussina.  They don't exactly grow on trees.   Even when you pick at the very top of the draft, you can be derailed by injuries and bad luck.   Remember Ben McDonald?  Mark Prior, etc.....

Still, I think you have to keep trying your luck.  I'd be tickled pink if we can pluck Emerson Hancock this year and Kumar Rocker next....

 

 

On the other hand, remember that when we faced Detroit in 2014, we faced, and beat, three consecutive Cy Young winners.

Immediately after that, well, let’s not talk about that...

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

On the other hand, remember that when we faced Detroit in 2014, we faced, and beat, three consecutive Cy Young winners.

Immediately after that, well, let’s not talk about that...

It’s not like KC had a bunch of ace starters, either.   In 2014 or 2015.   

[Philip]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s not like KC had a bunch of ace starters, either.   In 2014 or 2015.   

Grrrr I SAID ,” Let’s not talk about that”

[Philip]

Double post

Edited February 12, 2020 by Philip

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

On the other hand, remember that when we faced Detroit in 2014, we faced, and beat, three consecutive Cy Young winners.

Immediately after that, well, let’s not talk about that...

The Tigers had a really crappy pen.